Adobe Inc.
BAYESIAN ESTIMATION OF THE EFFECT OF AGGREGATE ADVERTISING ON WEB METRICS

Abstract:

A method, apparatus, and non-transitory computer readable medium for data analytics are described. Embodiments of the method, apparatus, and non-transitory computer readable medium include monitoring online activity corresponding to a plurality of users; receiving aggregate marketing data for a marketing activity; identifying online activity data for a time period corresponding to the marketing activity based on the monitoring; generating a regression model based on the aggregate marketing data and the online activity data using Bayesian regression, wherein the regression model represents a relationship between the marketing activity and the online activity, comprises a time effect coefficient, and is based on a prior distribution of the time effect coefficient that decays to zero as time increases; and estimating a treatment effect for the marketing activity on the online activity based on the regression model, wherein the treatment effect comprises a rate of effect decay.