The Boeing Company
System and methods for aviation winds uncertainty prediction

Abstract:

A wind forecast prediction apparatus includes an historical forecast patterns module configured to generate at least one historical wind forecast pattern and determine a deviation magnitude and a probability of occurrence of the at least one historical wind forecast pattern based on at least one actual wind value; a current wind forecast module; and a wind forecast prediction controller connected to the historical forecast patterns module and current wind forecast module, the wind forecast prediction controller is configured to generate a current wind forecast pattern based on current wind data from the current wind forecast module; and determine a matching historical wind forecast pattern from the at least one historical wind forecast pattern that matches the current wind forecast pattern, where the deviation magnitude and the probability of occurrence of the matching historical wind forecast pattern are combined with the current wind forecast pattern to generate a predicted wind forecast.