The Boeing Company
Computing system and method for dynamically managing monte carlo simulations

Abstract:

A computing system, method and computer program product dynamically manage Monte Carlo simulations. In a method, convergence criteria conditions are identified and a set of outcomes is generated following the repeated performance of one or more functions upon randomly sampled input parameter distributions. The method also determines whether the convergence criteria condition is satisfied based upon a plurality of samples. In an instance in which the convergence criteria condition is not satisfied, the method supplements the set of outcomes by repeatedly performing the one or more functions upon randomly sampled input parameter distributions. In an instance in which the convergence criteria condition is satisfied, the method determines whether the set of outcomes has been supplemented prior to satisfying the convergence criteria condition and, if the set of outcomes has not been supplemented, the size of the set of outcomes to be generated during a subsequent Monte Carlo simulation is reduced.