Banco BBVA Argentina S.A.
Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Published: 24 Aug 2023

[Operator:]

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for waiting. At this time, we would like to welcome everyone to BBVA Argentina's Second Quarter 2023 Fiscal Year Results Conference Call. We would like to inform you that this event is being recorded and all participants will be in a listen-only mode during the company presentation. After company remarks are completed, there will be a question-and-answer session. At that time, further instructions will be given [Operator Instructions]. First of all, let me point out that there are some statements made during this conference call that may be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions found in Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 under US federal securities law. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements. Additional information concerning these factors is contained in BBVA Argentina's annual report on Form 20-F for the fiscal year 2022 and filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Today with us, we have Ms. Carmen Arroyo, CFO; Ms. Inés Lanusse, IRO; and Ms. Belén Fourcade, Investor Relations. Ms. Fourcade, you may begin your conference.

[Belén Fourcade:]

Good morning. And welcome to BBVA Argentina's second quarter 2023 fiscal year results conference call. Today's webinar will be supported by a slide presentation available on our Investor Relations Web site on the Financial Information section. Speaking during today's call will be Inés Lanusse, our Investor Relations Officer; and Carmen Mauricio Arroyo, our Chief Financial Officer, who will be available for the Q&A session. Please note that starting January 1, 2020, as per Central Bank regulation, we have begun reporting results applying hyperinflation accounting pursuant to IFRS rule IAS 29. For ease of comparability, 2022 and 2023 figures have been restated to reflect the accumulated effect of the inflation adjustment for each period through June 30, 2023. Now let me turn the call over to Inés.

[Inés Lanusse:]

Thank you, Belén. And thank you all for joining us today. As we are all aware, on Sunday, August 13th, Javier Milei, the candidate for La Libertad Avanza was the most voted in the primary presidential elections quite above from what surveys were estimating. This implies a higher uncertainty scenario facing the general elections of October, and it is expected that higher volatility will persist. At the same time, the unfavorable macroeconomic conditions have continued to deteriorate, increasing the risk of economic and financial turbulence ahead of the presidential elections scheduled for the last quarter of the year. GDP is expected to fall by around 3.5% this year according to the BBVA Research due to the impact of a negative weather shock on the production and export of agricultural goods coupled with increasing exchange rate restrictions and political uncertainty. In this context, it’s impact on the external and fiscal account has contributed to accelerate the exchange rate depreciation and inflation which, in annual terms, reached 113.4% as of July 2023. Referring to BBVA Argentina general performance, a better operating income as of June 2023 was a product of an improvement in interest income boosted especially by government securities and liquidity instruments and better fee income. Now moving into business dynamics. As you can see on Slide 3 of our webcast presentation, our service offering has evolved in such a way that by the end of June 2023 weaker digital client penetration reached 62%, remaining stable from a year back while that of retail mobile clients reached 56% from 54% as of the same period of last year. The response on the side of customers has been satisfactory and we are convinced this is a path to pursue in the aim of sustaining and expanding our competitive position in the financial system. Retail digital sales measured in units have increased from 90.8% in the second quarter of 2022 to 93.9% in the second quarter of 2023 and represents 71.8% of the bank's total sales measured in monetary value versus 57.1% in the second quarter of 2022. New customer acquisitions through digital channels reached 75% in the second quarter of 2023 from 70% in the second quarter 2022. The bank actively monitors its business, financial conditions and operating results in the aim of keeping a competitive position to face contextual challenges. Moving to Slide 4. I will now comment on the bank's second quarter 2020 financial results. BBVA Argentina second quarter 2020 net income was ARS30.4 billion, increasing 63.3% quarter-over-quarter. This implies a quarterly ROE of 21.3% and a quarterly ROA of 3.9%. Operating income in the second quarter of 2023 was ARS125.3 billion, 28.6% above the ARS97.5 billion recorded in the first quarter of 2023. Quarterly operating results are mainly explained by

[Operator:]

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Carlos Gomez.

[Carlos Gomez:]

A general question about how you contemplate the end of this year and the beginning of next year. How is the bank positioning in terms of liquidity, in terms of willingness to expand, to take risk or do the opposite and how you can hedge yourself against unexpected inflation or unexpected foreign currency movements?

[Inés Lanusse:]

It's quite uncertain the projection for Argentina actually in this period of the year is when we prepare our budgets and it's difficult to project and our research department is updating, for example, inflation, particularly on an everyday basis. We are already in levels through the end of the year around 175% to 200% monetary policy rate, although, it has already been increased last week to 119%, we are still expecting a higher monetary policy rate for the end of the year around 138%. But it's still difficult to say when that increase is going to take place and how much it's going to be and at what -- basically to understand if interest rates will remain positive or negative, also projection for official USD is projected today in ASR700 per dollar at the year end. But again, macro variables are moving every day and this is tied also to the political uncertainty. As you know, Milei won, this was unexpected and today, we have not only a possibility that Milei can be President, but we have three very strong parties running for the presidential elections. Being that said, as you see the numbers of the bank, the bank has reported very good results, very good ROEs, ROAs, all positive in real terms. Our loan growth this quarter has remained flat. But if you see our market share from one year ago, it's still growing, we are around 9%. And the bank is basically trying to protect the balance sheet from inflation. This has been a quarter where inflation has increased and the strategy of the bank is to acquire mainly [Ceron] that protect our balance sheet for inflation. That keeps being the main focus of the bank going forward. And we need to see how the macroeconomic environment evolves to prepare the bank for the future. So it's a tough question to answer, because the macro variables are not clear enough for us to understand how the bank is going to be prepared. But the bank has good liquidity, both in pesos and dollars, has the protection of the balance sheet, is improving efficiency ratios, fees are improving, the margin, obviously, is improving. So we believe we are one of the banks that is in a good position to keep reporting good results this year and the next.

[Carlos Gomez:]

So again, to summarize, at this point in time, meaning today, your inflation forecast is 175% and your monetary policy 135% ?

[Inés Lanusse:]

For the year-end, it's between 175% and 200% still not defined because was only 175%, but we know they're working on a higher probably inflation rate for the year-end. Monetary is still not defined, but probably around 138% can be a possibility. But again, it's not a fixed number. Numbers are changing on an everyday basis. It's difficult to tell you the numbers today that may change tomorrow. What we know that we believe there is going to be an extra increase in monetary policy rates. It's not going to be remaining in 118% because we still see the FX increasing before the end of the year.

[Carlos Gomez:]

And again, this monetary policy rate, is that the monthly rates, which compounded gives you a number above 200%?

[Inés Lanusse:]

Yes, the inflation rate, yes. Year end 200%.

[Carlos Gomez:]

The second question, in terms of the results of the second quarter, and I have asked it to other banks as well. We have seen that all the banks have reported high profitability in the second quarter. Again, is there any element of either seasonality or share pricing rates or share pricing inflation that has made the second quarter special, or is there something that we could project into the third or the fourth quarter?

[Inés Lanusse:]

It has to do with the increase in the monetary policy rate that you had in the second quarter that went from 78% to 97% remember, by the end of the first quarter to the second quarter, and that had a repricing also in loans. And the other factor is the position in CER and LELIQ now from our public sector exposure to daily LELIQ represent 76% and increasing, so that is part of the results that all the banks are presenting. Most of the NII of the banks is increasing mainly by public sector exposure, which is high but in control now, in the case of us, probably more controlled than other banks because of our parent company. So mainly the increase in NII and the good result has to do with that, with the increase of monetary portion rates and the position in public sector assets.

[Operator:]

Next question comes from [Ludovic Kachot].

[Unidentified Analyst:]

I've got two questions. The first one is about the impact of the devaluation of the official FX rate. On your results and on your book value, your equity, what would be the impact of devaluation of the FX official rate? And the second question is regarding the consolidation that we have seen in the market with Banco Macro buying out Itau Argentina. Would [indiscernible] they are interested in external growth, buying out local subsidiary of foreign bank or merging with a competitor, would you be interested in external growth?

[Inés Lanusse:]

I didn't understand the last part of your question, I understood [BMA] buying Itau, but the last part was?

[Unidentified Analyst:]

The last part was, if you BBVA Argentina could be interested in buying a subsidiary of an international bank or to merge with another local bank?

[Inés Lanusse:]

Let me start by the last question. Regarding the Itau and BMA acquisition, I think it's a good position for BMA. It's a bank that offers a good branch network in the area where BMA had less franchises and I think it's a good merger for them. If you see, again -- today with the last information of the system is March, but with those information, market shares and ramping stay quite stable. There's not much change by BMA acquiring Itau, but I believe it's a good acquisition for BMA strategy. Regarding us, again, it's a very unstable moment. So it's difficult to say what other M&A is going to take part. BBVA as a bank looks out of every opportunity and trying to remain in the market. So any opportunity that may rise up, we take a look at it and see if it's an opportunity for us. Regarding [devaluation] that was the other part of your question, as you know, by recognization we have a cat in the position that we can have loan in assets basically to avoid this high increase in results because of a sudden devaluation. Being that said, we have some bonds tied to FX that helps our results in FX and basically, that's what we can do. Now there's not much we can do there, it's quite limitated what we can do regarding devaluation.

[Operator:]

This concludes the question-and-answer section. At this time, I would like to turn the floor back to Ms. Lanusse for any closing remarks.

[Inés Lanusse:]

Okay. Thank you for your time. And let us know you have further questions. Have a nice day.

[Operator:]

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.