Citizens Financial Group, Inc.
Q1 2021 Earnings Call Transcript

Published: 16 Apr 2021

[Operator:]

Good morning, everyone and welcome to the Citizens Financial Group First Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Alan, and I'll be your operator today. Currently, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct a brief question-and-answer session. As a reminder, this event is being recorded. Now, I'll turn the call over to Kristin Silberberg, Executive Vice President, Investor Relations. Kristin, you may begin.

[Kristin Silberberg:]

Thank you, Alan. Good morning, everyone and thank you for joining us. First, this morning, our Chairman and CEO, Bruce Van Saun; and CFO, John Woods, will provide an overview of first quarter results referencing our presentation which you can find on our Investor Relations Web site. After the presentation, we'll be happy to take questions. Brendan Coughlin, Head of Consumer Banking is also here to provide additional color. Don McCree, Head of Commercial Banking who usually joins us has a personal conflict today. Our comments today will include forward-looking statements, which is subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause our results to differ materially from expectations. These are outlined for your review on Page 2 of the presentation. We also reference non-GAAP financial measures. So it's important to review our GAAP results on Page 3 of the presentation and the reconciliation in the appendix. With that, I will hand over to Bruce.

[Bruce Van Saun:]

Thanks, Kristin. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining our call today. We're pleased to get off to a good start to 2021 as our business model continues to demonstrate strength, diversification and resilience, notwithstanding continuing impacts from the pandemic. We continue to focus on taking good care of customers, highlighted by 1.8 billion of PPP loans in the latest round of the program. We've kept our colleagues safe and productive, and we continue to drive benefits to our communities through various grants and strong levels of volunteerism. Our strategic initiatives remain on track and will lead to increasing differentiation and growth in franchise value versus peers over time. Our financial headlines are terrific, though they're flattered by a large reserve release given the improved economic outlook. We delivered underlying Q1 EPS of $1.41 and ROTCE of 17.6%, while our CET1 ratio grew to 10.1% and our liquidity remains elevated with an 81% quarter end loan to deposit ratio. The first half of the year can be thought of as a transition period for us in terms of PPNR as the record levels of mortgage revenues normalized. While we are still seeing strong levels of originations, both refi and purchase, elevated margins have been returning to historical levels as industry capacity has expanded, and competition has intensified. We currently expect mortgage revenues broadly to bottom in Q2, and then stabilize in the second half. During the first quarter, we saw strength in capital markets and wealth fees, which partially offset the drop in mortgage fees. This should continue into Q2, and we should start to see loan growth pick up as well, which provides a further offset.

[John Woods:]

Thanks, Bruce, and good morning, everyone. Let me start with the headlines for the quarter. We reported underlying net income of 626 million and EPS of $1.41. Our underlying ROTCE for the quarter was 17.6%, which includes the impact of a sizable reserve release. Revenue of 1.7 billion was broadly stable year-over-year with strong fee income offsetting the impact of the low rate environment on NII. Highlights include continued strength in capital markets, record results in wealth and well controlled expenses. We recorded a negative provision for credit losses of 140 million, which reflects strong credit performance with lower charge-offs and improving loan portfolio profile and an improving macroeconomic outlook with our ACL ratio now at 2.03%, excluding PPP loans. And finally, we are in a very strong capital position with CET1 at 10.1% after returning 262 million to shareholders in dividends and share repurchases during the quarter. We also continued to grow our tangible book value per share, which was $32.79 at quarter end, up 3% compared with the year ago. Next, I'll refer to a few of the slides and give you some key takeaways for the first quarter. I'll then outline our outlook for the second quarter and provide some comments on 2021. Net interest income on Slide 6 was down 1% linked quarter given lower day count. Loan balances were broadly stable and net interest margin was up slightly. The net interest margin improvement reflects a steepening yield curve and continued discipline on deposit pricing.

[Bruce Van Saun:]

All right. Thanks, John. Operator, let's open it up to Q&A.

[Operator:]

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the Q&A portion of the conference call. . Our first question will come from the line of Matt O’Connor with Deutsche Bank. Go ahead.

[Matt O’Connor:]

Good morning. Your outlook for loan growth is a bit better than what we've heard so far from other folks. And I was just wondering if you could elaborate on the drivers both in the near term and then how robust you think loan growth can be kind of when things fully reopen, call it later this year into next year?

[John Woods:]

Yes, I’ll start out with that, Matt. Others may weigh in here. But in the near term, I think that the strength that we're seeing is really attributable to our diversified consumer lending and retail businesses. When we see what we've been able to do in the mortgage portfolio, auto and education, I think those are areas that have been areas of strength in the past and will continue to be in the second quarter. I also believe that when we get into the second quarter, you're going to start to see -- although across the industry, we've seen utilization levels come down a bit in the first quarter, we believe that that will start to moderate and stabilize and possibly start to head back up off of historic lows, historic low levels, so you can see commercial contributing as well in the second quarter. And as you – that will create the staging ground, if you will, for what we see in the second half where the continuing expectations for reopening economic activity accelerating on the commercial side, inventories building, CapEx expenditure starting to recover and increase. So those are the forces that we see in terms of loan growth throughout the year.

[Bruce Van Saun:]

Yes. On the consumer side -- thanks, John, I'd offer a couple of thoughts. One, across all the asset categories, unwound credit tightening that we did through COVID. And so we haven't changed our risk appetite, but the temporary tightening that we did those are now broadly unwound. So we should see originations pick up across all categories. We've also turned on marketing that we had artificially suppressed last year as well. Asset by asset, I think I'd mentioned last quarter, we had sort of put auto in a flattish trend intentionally. The market always allowed for us to grow, but we were optimizing our balance sheet with all the excess deposits we have now in the short duration. We're finding incredibly high returns in the auto business. So you should expect that to continue to moderately grow, assuming that the environment allows for outsized returns, which we're not seeing a slowdown. On the student side, we had a record quarter grow in our customer refinance product at over 900 million in originations. That could moderate a tiny bit, but still at record levels giving high rates. And as the federal portfolio of student loans come off their forbearance in September, that will provide another opportunity for growth. And then seasonally our in-school business, we're expecting a very big year as a lot of students took the year off given COVID, a big freshman class coming in and just seasonal growth in the summer, in the fall. And lastly, point of sale is an area that you know we've spent a lot of time and investment in. We've got great traction. We're up to 15 partners. So we're in the build phase there, whereas these partners ramp, you're naturally getting sort of outsized growth, so small numbers as the portfolio gets to scale. So I've got a lot of confidence in the outlook in consumer growth and underpinning that is obviously improvement in consumer confidence.

[John Woods:]

I would just add, Matt, just one last proof point on the commercial side. In addition to line utilization, which is seeing activity start to build, so our pipelines are much stronger at this point than they were early in the first quarter. So that's a good sign of both economic activity, backlogs and M&A. Still pretty high, so we see line utilization kicking in plus just fresh deals. And we continue to add bankers and grow our market share.

[Matt O’Connor:]

And is most of the demand building commercial related to deals, as you just referenced, or is there also kind of some early signs of increased, call it organic investment among commercial borrowers?

[John Woods:]

I think there's some of both, Matt, quite honestly. So, right now, you can see that the economic stats are fantastic. And so people are positioning to try to capture that demand. And so that means increasing supply, which requires some capital investment, and then also labor, bringing people back to work, which, frankly, when we talked to many of our corporate customers has been a gating factor. It's hard to actually fill out their needs and we're trying to be helpful on that. There's some initiatives around workforce development, but the animal spirits are starting to kick in here.

[Matt O’Connor:]

Okay. Thank you.

[Operator:]

We'll move next to the line of Erika Najarian with Bank of America. Go ahead, please.

[Erika Najarian:]

Hi. Good morning. A follow up to Matt's question, because I want to make sure the market really understands this. A lot of your larger peers where their consumer exposure is more credit card related, really talked to us over the past couple of days about how deleveraging was going to negatively impact demand and perhaps maybe give us a little bit more detail about why your consumer products are not necessarily going to be impacted the same as credit card?

[Brendan Coughlin:]

Yes, Erika, thanks. It’s Brendan. I’d just say our credit card book is significantly smaller than our peers on an average basis to our overall loan book. And so we are seeing a little bit of those dynamics in our credit card portfolio. We're not calling for growth in credit card, but that delevering of our card book with all the extra stimulus has a much more muted impact for us on our overall consumer lending portfolio than others just given the relative undersized nature of our card book. So, we found opportunities to grow in more niche places like point of sale, which is -- the demand is generated by purchase activity. And as the economy rebounds, consumer confidence comes back. Folks are out there buying bigger ticket items again and the point of sale business is there to help and very naturally lined up against the recovery of consumer spending on how we think about modern financing for consumers. And while rates are going up, they are still very, very low. If I look at student loan refinancing, as I mentioned before, it's something that's still going to be very, very strong. There's a lot of customers that are in the money. That's a product that our peers generally speaking don't have. And so that's generating outsized growth for us. And similarly, in student, the in-school business, as I mentioned before, seasonally, just naturally that we're going to have some growth just by being in that business in the back half of the year, which most of our peers don't have. And in auto again, not to be too redundant, but we had intentionally sidelined auto. So we’re back in growth mode there at a moderate level. So when you add all that up, I think we've got a lot of confidence that we're going to buck the trends that you're hearing from others. And we're proving that the numbers show in the last handful of quarters that we're already delivering it even through the COVID period.

[Bruce Van Saun:]

Yes, I would just add to that. Diversification is important. And so we have probably more portfolios and some well targeted portfolios and niches that should continue to still grow. So that's I think why we'll kind of buck the title a little bit overall. I would just add also the outlook for the so-called buy now, pay later or installment financing kind of tailoring products to people at point of sale is very, very positive. I think the industry forecast for that is 20% growth over the next five years and on card it’s much, much lower. First you have to get the rebound, but then I think that you're low single digit in terms of the growth outlook there. So I think we've made a bet that this is going to be a burgeoning attractive area now that we're well positioned to catch some wins here.

[Erika Najarian:]

Got it. And my second question is on the margin outlook for the second quarter and perhaps a little bit beyond. Thank you for giving us an update on how you're expecting PPP to unfold for the rest of the year. I'm wondering in the NIM of modestly guide, how much forgiveness is assumed for the second quarter? And also maybe give an outlook on how you're thinking about redeploying the excess cash for the rest of the year?

[John Woods:]

Yes, I'll go ahead and take that Erika. I think just to focus on the second quarter, I think that the rate environment is favorable to us and others. But I think that we're seeing nice tailwind from the rate rise. I'd also referenced the fact that we've added to our edge portfolio in the first quarter, and that's contributing. And we'll get a full quarter effect of that in the second quarter. And just our overall mix on both the asset and deposit side, so greater DDA in the first quarter and that's flowing into the second quarter. And don't forget some of the comments I made earlier about our deposit costs. That's a lever that continues to contribute. And those are some of the important I think drivers into 2Q with more room to run there. The 20 basis points’ coming down to sort of -- into the teens into the second quarter and into the low teens as we get to the end of the year. So those are some of the forces. PPP is less of a contributor. It's pretty -- as we mentioned, it stabilizes overall NII. But in terms of NIM, there's no real meaningful difference between forgiveness last quarter versus this quarter or next quarter. So that's really not a driver over the last quarter or next.

[Erika Najarian:]

Got it. Just to clarify, so the forces that are driving NIM higher in the second quarter are all sort of core business trends and not PPP?

[John Woods:]

They are rates, balance sheet mix, deposit pricing and loan growth. Those are the things that were really driving us.

[Bruce Van Saun:]

And just a further word on PPP. John called it right, but that's been pretty stable through the back half of last year, through the first half of this year. You look at the yields on those loans with forgiveness baked in, it's not a big winner for the bank. So what we had anticipated was that we'd start to see some fall off given the new program that was added, the glide path down in the second half of the year was much less severe. So, I don't think the PPP this year will be a huge factor compared to last year on any sequential quarter that we would have to call out.

[Erika Najarian:]

Got it. Thank you so much.

[Operator:]

We will go next to the line of John Pancari with Evercore ISI. Your line is open.

[John Pancari:]

Good morning.

[Bruce Van Saun:]

Good morning.

[John Pancari:]

Regarding your commentary on the operating leverage expectation for improvement and for I think you referenced it as healthy level of operating leverage, any way you can help us think about the magnitude in terms of sizing that up? What type of level of operating leverage you think is achievable in the back half? And then what that could possibly mean for 2022 as we look out?

[Bruce Van Saun:]

Yes. So, historically, if you look at what we were able to deliver since the IPO, we've probably been in at 300 basis points of operating leverage type mode. And whether that was 6% or 7%, its revenue growth and then 3% or 4% expense growth, it's kind of scaled with what the revenue environment is. We're trying to compress the expenses to try to maintain something like that. And so clearly that would be our objective over time. And as John indicated, we're kind of working through a transitory phase where the mortgage revenue has to reset. It was a huge boon for last year. We did 400 basis points of operating leverage for all of last year, which was fueled by mortgage. So in the first half of the year as that normalizes, that makes it hard to deliver the positive operating leverage, although we did state in our guidance that we should come pretty close to neutral in the second quarter, notwithstanding that kind of last leg to drop on mortgage revenues before it stabilizes. Once we can get back to kind of having that mortgage bottom out and we're seeing nice growth in our fees, we're seeing our balance sheet grow, we're seeing good performance on NIM, then we should get back to having a nice top line and you can count on us to continue to constrain the expense growth. We've done I think a really good job with the top program of repositioning Citizens to be much more equipped for the future in terms of our technology. So we have a next gen technology element to that project. We have huge -- going to a digital first business model of going to that. So it does require investment. But our mindset all along has been to self fund to try to find the inefficiencies in how we're running the place, wring those out and then in turn go reinvest those. And I think we've demonstrated over time that we're quite good at that. So we're managing the expense base tightly, but we're certainly keeping up with the investments that we need to position us for future growth.

[John Pancari:]

Great. Thanks, Bruce. That’s helpful. And then separately on the consumer side, on the merchant partner side, I've kind of a two-parter. First, just want to see if you can give us a little bit of color around the risk adjusted returns you're able to get in that business in terms of maybe the loan yields that you're seeing on your partnerships as well as the loss assumptions? And then separately, I know you mentioned buy now, pay later, Bruce. Interested if you believe you need more scale there to take advantage of the opportunity or if you need more capabilities on the digital front, and therefore would you be open to an acquisition to give you greater scale or do you think the momentum you have already in the area is sufficient? Thanks.

[Brendan Coughlin:]

Yes, thanks. It’s Brendan. I'd say the risk adjusted returns on the point of sale business, the way you should think about it is it's equivalent to a credit card profile, the geographies a little different, the yields are a little bit lower and the losses are meaningfully lower. But the returns are equivalent to what you'd expect on a prime card portfolio, which is why we sort of disclose them all in the same bucket as other retail, which is great, because if you think about that, if you're getting equivalent credit card returns but lower losses that are going to perform even better through the cycle, that's a very, very attractive place to play. And as I've shared in the past, when you look at the credit performance of point of sale through COVID, forbearance was basically nonexistence and delinquencies were down from pre-COVID levels. So that portfolio was operating as if there was no recession or lockdown going on around us. And so we're incredibly excited about that dynamic and we don't think it was artificially created. The customer experience is so slick and integrated into consumers’ top wallet payment that really we're kind of getting that top payment position in that product. So very, very excited about that. Relative to acquisition, look, we're really bullish on our capabilities. We think it's very distinctive from what others offer in this space, even the old school traditional buy now, pay later players and even relative to some of the fintechs where we've got a unique niche, but we've also have a balance sheet. We don't have to offload these loans. It allows for a lot more creativity and innovation on how we structure the product. As an example, like the Apple product, where it's a revolving purchase where the customer gets the new phone every year, that's hard to do if you're relying on capital markets to fund your business model. So we're excited about the business model. If there was an acquisition that could help us accelerate at the right price, of course, we would look at it, but I don't think we need one to get scale.

[John Pancari:]

Great. Thank you. I appreciate you taking the questions.

[Operator:]

We'll go next to Peter Winter with Wedbush Securities. Go ahead.

[Peter Winter:]

Good morning. I wanted to ask about the average security field. I noticed it held steady quarter-to-quarter. And I'm just wondering what the new reinvestment rate is on the securities? And secondly, if you're extending duration on that portfolio?

[John Woods:]

Yes, I'll take the last question first. I think that as you know, most of our portfolio is in mortgage-backed security agencies, agency space. And so really that's a rate driven outcome and pretty typical that you would see as rates rise, prepayments slow, and so those mortgage backs will extend in duration. And so that's really what's going on there. We didn't actually through our purchase activity endeavor to extend the duration. That was just an impact of the macro on those securities that we have. I think the way that we look at the securities book, it's basically -- a few weeks ago, I might have said that our reinvestment yields could have been in the neighborhood of 175 to 180 and might have been close to where the runoff yields would be. But over the last couple of weeks, as you've seen the rallying rates, we're sort of in the, I’ll call it 160 range. And so it will be a negative front-book back-book, probably in the early part of the second quarter. But as you get into the end of the third quarter, based upon what we see, you can start to see securities portfolio being the first sort of term book that starts to get to neutral on front-book back-book and begins to become a positive contributor into the second half. And I'd say more broadly, those are the kind of dynamic you'll see with other loan categories as one by one, you'll see improvements on that front. The other thing I can back to this is a broader NIM story, but if we believe where rates are headed and the forces all indicate that we'll get to higher long-term rates as you get to the end of the year, we'll continue to layer in our swaps hedging program as well, which will also contribute to NII --

[Bruce Van Saun:]

And can have a faster impact when you start to see the curve steepen prior to swaps.

[John Woods:]

The front-book back-book converts from a headwind to sort of a tailwind as you get to the end and into the second half. And then you can see our playbook on rate management all contributing to NII and NIM.

[Peter Winter:]

Got it. Thank you. And then just on the allowance for credit losses, I'm just wondering with the improvement in credit, how quickly do you think you can get back to that CECL day one level? And does that level change just because the composition of the portfolio changing with more of the growth or more growth from consumer?

[John Woods:]

Yes, I'll go ahead and take that. You've seen us come down relatively meaningfully this quarter. The way CECL works, if you had perfect knowledge about where the macro was headed, all of that good news and all of that expected outcome would all be built into our results this quarter. But you also have to take into consideration the uncertainty around those expectations. And the uncertainty as we're turning towards much more positive macro, that uncertainty in the range of potential outcomes is still very, very wide. And as a result, we have a number of overlays that are judgmental in nature that sort of work together with our model outputs to give you what our results are. So net-net, the balance would be that we have big releases happening now. If in fact the uncertainty around the base case begins to narrow, you can see our coverage getting closer to day one as you get into the second half and towards the end of the year.

[Peter Winter:]

Great. Thanks.

[Operator:]

We’ll go next to the line of Ken Zerbe with Morgan Stanley.

[Ken Zerbe:]

Hi. Great, thanks. Good morning. I guess the first question just in terms of the spots that you put on, can you just talk about the duration of those? I understand we’re sort of in a low rate environment, but at some point rates will rise. I’m just kind of curious how the timing of those swaps played out your expectations for the Fed fund hikes at some point?

[John Woods:]

Yes. The duration is five years on the swaps that we put on with the $7 billion. And that's relatively typical. You sort of look at this on a dollar cost averaging basis. When you see the five year is really where a lot of this hedging happens. When we saw the five year go from 40 basis points to 90 basis points in a very short period of time, that's a signal to trigger the first sort of tranche of hedging that you will do over time. And really what you're doing is you are reducing your downside when you start to layer hedges in. And so our first tranche was triggered. It's contributing in a positive way. It takes away and reduces the risk to lower rates over time, but we basically are -- you pause after that first sort of category of hedging and you wait for the next sort of range of rates before you get into the next tranche. And so $7 billion is a fraction of what our overall hedging will be as you get – it will get to the end of the cycle. And so rather than waiting to pick the perfect spot, maybe a year from now, and do all of our hedging all at once, you tend to do it over time.

[Bruce Van Saun:]

Just to add into it, it’s a tend to dollar cost averaging for you guys who are investing in your portfolios.

[John Woods:]

And the last -- so the last tranche that you would do if and when the five year hits its peak, and then if you have a big rally in rates, that will widen out. The first tranche that you do as you get towards the end of the five years, it's in fact rates continue to rise and rise and rise, then you have -- those turn negative, but those are more than offset by all the positives of the hedging that you do as rates continue to rise.

[Ken Zerbe:]

Thanks. It makes perfect sense. And then my second question in terms of capital, obviously, very strong CET1 at 10.1%. Can you just talk about your plans or expectations? How does that eventually get absorbed? Now you can't buy back stock, but it sounds like you're also going to have stronger balance sheet growth?

[John Woods:]

Yes. I think we've said this before on our program here and our number one capital objectives are to support the dividend and to support organic growth and putting capital to work in support of our customers and clients. So that's really our first objective. And if we can do that in a way that is additive and returns to exceed our cost of capital, we think that's the right thing to do for the franchise. And so that's our focus. As we mentioned earlier, we do have a transition to loan growth beginning in the second quarter. The average loan growth 1.5% to 2%, but spot loan growth in the second quarter will be higher than that. As things begin to accelerate, you could see 3% or better spot growth in the second quarter alone. And seeing those numbers go higher still if the environment unfolds the way we expect. So that's our focus. To the extent that we have excess capital even after supporting all of those things, then that's when you get into how we look at that returning it to shareholders through the form of buybacks and thinking in parallel about bolt-on fee acquisitions.

[Ken Zerbe:]

All right. Thank you.

[Operator:]

Our next question will be from Scott Siefers with Piper Sandler. Go ahead.

[Scott Siefers:]

Good morning, guys. Thanks for taking the question. I think first question sort of a follow up on the capital one from the prior question. Just given the credit concerns are kind of melting away, is there any opportunity to maybe revisit your internal capital targets a little lower -- a little higher than some of your peers? And, of course, some of that I'm sure is just due to the complexion of the balance sheet. But nonetheless, with the risk profile improving just would be curious to hear any thoughts there.

[Bruce Van Saun:]

Yes. It’s Bruce. So we’ve, as you're aware, have inched down over time. So I think initially, we had a 10.25 target as our CET1 ratio. And then we went to 10 to 10.25. Now we’re 9.75 to 10. So I think initially, coming out of the IPO as a relatively new company without a long-term track record having a little higher CET1 targets than peers made sense. You've seen through the CCAR work that our credit losses stress at median or better, slightly better than median. And so there's really not such a significant need any longer to carry that little extra cushion, although I do like to sleep well at night. And so I think a strong capital ratio helps with that. But over time, we'll see where the peer group goes. And if the peer group continues to inch down, given a positive outlook for the sort of foreseeable future, there's no reason that we couldn't do that as well. But at this point, we're locked in for this year with that 9.75 to 10 range. And I think that gives us plenty of firepower given the capital we're generating potential for future reserve releases to pursue our agenda of the significant loan growth and potentially some fee-based acquisitions and also giving some back to our shareholders.

[Scott Siefers:]

Perfect. All right. Thank you. And then maybe, John, just sort of a follow up on some of the actions you took regarding rate sensitivity in the first quarter. I think I can sort of back into some of it based on kind of what you said about duration and things like that. But I think you guys have said in the past your rate sensitivity is sort of 55-45 short end versus long end. Is there any meaningful change in how that looks now following some of those first quarter actions?

[John Woods:]

Yes, not much of a difference. I'd maybe call it 60-40. But basically, that's about where we are; 60 short, 40 long in terms of the complexion.

[Scott Siefers:]

Okay. Perfect. All right. Thank you very much, guys.

[Bruce Van Saun:]

Sure.

[Operator:]

Next, we'll go to Ken Usdin with Jefferies. Your line is open.

[Amanda Larsen:]

Hi, guys. This is Amanda Larsen on for Ken. I guess on the loan growth outlook for 1.5% to 2%, you guys did talk about the buckets. But if you can kind of just talk about the mix you would expect of just commercial versus consumer in 2Q, that would be helpful?

[John Woods:]

Yes. When I think that -- retail I would describe it as is really going to be leading the way in the second quarter as commercial takes maybe – begins its march and as the recovery really contributes to higher utilization and as those loan pipelines that you heard from Bruce earlier begin to sort of realize themselves. So I'd say in the second quarter, it's probably, I don't know, something in the neighborhood of two-thirds; one-third of the majority coming from retail, but commercial clearly contributing and beginning to be a bigger contributor as you get into the second half of the year.

[Bruce Van Saun:]

I think you've got some -- for average loan purposes, you've got to work through some of the dynamics of the first quarter. But what we're pretty excited about is on a spot basis, we see significant growth in the second quarter which will set us up well for growth in the second half of the year. So the goal really in the second quarter is to really layer in that nice spot level of growth. It won't fully manifest itself in the average numbers. So therefore, we're at the 1.5 to 2. But it does -- if we achieve it, set us up extremely well for the third quarter.

[Amanda Larsen:]

Okay, super. And then, John, can you just frame the conversation on swap with how much you earned on cash flow hedges in the first quarter? And then maybe what's expected for 2Q and beyond assuming LIBOR is flat from here?

[John Woods:]

Yes. The way that we've talked about that in the past is really on a year-over-year basis, given that the portfolio is contractual and you can sort of see it. We've talked last year based upon the portfolio that was in place at the time and that year from 2021 would be about, call it $75 million to $80 million decline in contribution from the swap portfolio versus 2020. And just with the 7 billion that we put on in the first quarter, that's been cut in half. And so the headwind from swaps is really declining. If rates continue to rise from here, that number will continue to decline off of that level. I think the broader point though is you can't really look at it in isolation. You got to look at overall. As we indicated, net interest margin being broadly stable, excluding excess cash and frankly rising, if you consider what's going on with deployment of cash and what's happening with our expectations on loan growth. And another reminder on our deposit costs, that's a lever that's unique to us. We may have come down a little slower than others, because we had a lot farther to come, and so a 20 basis point headed to call it mid teens in the second quarter headed to low teens to the end of the year, that's another driver. So in the big picture including all of the swap dynamics, net interest margin appears to be stabilizing and is an improving picture going forward.

[Bruce Van Saun:]

It’s funny that what was a gap versus peers with our slightly higher deposit costs turns into a lever, turns into an asset when you're going through this environment. So many of the peers have already reached levels that it is hard to improve upon on their interest-bearing deposit costs, but we still have some room to run.

[Amanda Larsen:]

All right. Thank you so much.

[Operator:]

We’ll go next to the line of Bill Carcache with Wolfe Research. Go ahead.

[Bill Carcache:]

Thank you. Good morning. I wanted to follow up on some of your earlier comments. You guys have a unique view, given your mix of consumer versus commercial lending. Can you give a bit more color on how you see pent-up demand dynamics playing out across both groups as we make further progress into the reopening? It sounds like you think there will be a bit more gearing initially on the consumer risk commercial side, but I was hoping you could just expand on that thought process? And how does the excess liquidity that both groups have available play into that thinking?

[Brendan Coughlin:]

Yes, I can start. On the consumer side, I think the growth that we're projecting is sort of happening underlying right now and will get a bit of a tailwind from the reopening and consumer confidence growing, but the structure of our products are so diversified and naturally set up to give us outsized growth. I'd mentioned earlier, student loan refinancing. You should think about that a lot like mortgage when rates are low even though they're picking up a little bit, they're still historically low. That creates a boom of demand. It's almost like stimulus and other forms of stimulus for customers that we're providing through restructuring their payments down. And so that just is naturally demanded now independent of the reopening. Similarly with point of sale, as I mentioned, as the economy reopens, customers are starting to do big ticket purchases. Again, we're seeing our debit transaction average ticket go up pretty significantly. Those transactions are now up year-over-year. Very clear consumers are starting to spend again, which means point of sale financing is well positioned for growth. With the economy reopening, we're seeing that anyway, even independent of another checkup of the economy reopening. And auto has been a hot market, but auto industry sales are really, really high and the market is still bearing outsized returns. And so eat while the eating is good. We're going to continue. We got a diversified auto business. Number one JD Power in the country in auto. We're very well positioned to grow that business in a well controlled way with double digit ROEs, which you don't typically see with auto. So yes, I think as the economy reopens, it should provide a bit of another nudge and a tailwind. But even at a moderately slow pace of the economy reopening, I still feel pretty good given the diversification of our business that we'll get the growth that we're calling for on consumer.

[Bruce Van Saun:]

And I would say we still would expect to see some elevated cash levels. And a lot of times that's kind of geared to folks who worked in the service industries and have loss of employment and are still kind of holding on to precautionary task levels given circumstances. So that will I think run down fairly gradually. But these other factors that Brendan mentioned are somewhat separate from that. They're not as impacted by kind of the stimulus money that's been paid out. And then I think on the commercial side it’s really just a question of how fast folks take a positive view without the need to meet demand. If they see demand rising, then they can start investing. And then how do they finance that? They can use some of the big liquidity levels that they were able to amass. But I think you'll see that corporate cash start to drop some. But then going back and borrowing online is kind of the next phase that you would expect to see. And then some special purpose facilities to build a new plant or things like that, or just the deals that continue to happen and the financing that goes with those acquisitions. So we would expect to see -- we're already starting to see that some of that cash is getting put to work and it really just depends on how fast the view about the economic improvement solidifies.

[Bill Carcache:]

That's helpful. Thank you. If I can follow up, do you think that the elevated payment rates that we've been seeing really on the consumer side broadly have peaked based on what you guys are seeing or particularly with the effects of the latest stimulus checks or could those potentially remain elevated for a bit longer here before we start to see them come down and I guess contribute a bit more to some of that improvement in balances that you're expecting?

[Bruce Van Saun:]

Yes. I would say that the elevated stimulus on prepayment rates is mostly built on credit card, which we are -- in our guidance still calling for credit card to shrink slightly, healthy purchase activity but there's a lot of cash out in the environment as you point out. Some of the prepay rates that we're seeing on other products are not necessarily stimulus driven like mortgage with a lot of churn in refinancing where we’re originating taking share, but the portfolio is growing. But there's a lot of underlying prepay risk, but that will start to slow as interest rates go up moderately, although we still think volume and demand is going to be very, very heavy, but it's going to turn towards purchase versus refi. So we should see a natural slowing of prepay on the mortgage portfolio. I'd also say on home equity, we don't talk about that very often. It's a very big business for us and it's been slowly shrinking and shrinking faster in the industry. You've got a lot of the big banks that are sitting on the sidelines at the moment that have really curtailed or even shut down their home equity origination platforms. So we're enjoying market share that’s almost double what we naturally get, which we naturally get really high market share in this industry. So I expect us to at a minimum be slow decline in others on home equity for prepay speeds given the size and pace of our originations capacity and there's some optimism potentially that we could start to see home equity flatten and not be a headwind anymore for us. So there's a lot of dynamics that play there, but really your question around stimulus would be most built in credit card and that is called for in our underlying guidance and more than offset by those other dynamics.

[Bill Carcache:]

Understood. That's really helpful. Thank you for taking my questions.

[Bruce Van Saun:]

Sure.

[Operator:]

We’ll go next to the line of Saul Martinez with UBS. Go ahead, please. Mr. Martinez, your line is open. Go ahead.

[Saul Martinez:]

Sorry about that. I was on mute. Thanks for taking my question. You indicated that most of the expected decline in noninterest income is coming from lower mortgage banking fees, but that it should sort of hit a floor in the second quarter. I guess I just want to understand the logic there a little bit better? What gives you confidence that we will see a floor and we'll start to see in 2Q and we won't see further compression in margins beyond that that pressures the overall fee line? And then secondly -- I'll just ask my second question now. On the swaps, what receive rate are you getting on those? I guess I understand the logic of averaging in and legging into it, but maybe to – I guess the flipside of that is it does seem a little bit out of step on the surface to me with the view that you expect rates to continue to rise, whether it seems like maybe you can argue that it's a bit premature to leg into it already. So could you just flush that out for us a little bit?

[Bruce Van Saun:]

Sure. On mortgage, what we've seen happen kind of starting in late third quarter into fourth quarter was the industry gearing up in terms of capacity, adding capacity to really capture the whole refi opportunities. And then you have some of these big non-paying players going public and being pretty aggressive around market share. So the very high gain on sale margins were kind of frankly amazing and unsustainable back in Q3 have started to normalize back to historical levels based on those factors, those forces. And so we kind of see that playing out through the second quarter, and then restoring -- kind of getting restored to levels that we've seen historically and the current view is unlikely to go meaningfully below that. So that's the assumption that we're making. The flipside to that is that there's also a strong outlook for originations. We're looking at over 3 trillion, which would be next to 2020 another record year in terms of originations, and we're probably seeing a shift from refi to a little bit more purchase in the mix. And we're very well positioned in our retail channel to capture that. So still looking at a strong level of origination, so there's really no headwinds there at all. And then size of our servicing book and the MSR offset, all of that should offer somewhat of an offset to the fall in margins. So we’ll see. I think we've been pretty good at forecasting these dynamics. But the market is the market. We'll see how it plays out. But I think we've thought pretty hard about the factors and tried to project those out, and so feel pretty confident that that's the likely scenario for Q2 and then for the rest of the year. So I'll stop there unless you want to add anything, Brendan?

[Brendan Coughlin:]

I think it's well said. The one maybe data point I would add to that just to kind of accentuate the rebounding purchase offsetting some of the refi decline is that over the last 45 days, we've seen about a 30% growth rate in purchase volume coming through our retail channel. So it's not just hopes and dreams. We're seeing an actual and real momentum for the business. So we feel pretty good about the volume outlook. To Bruce's point, the margins bottoming at 2019 levels is really the key assumption, but it doesn't go any deeper than historical levels. And we're seeing it starting to stabilize right now.

[Bruce Van Saun:]

Yes, good. So we’ll flip the second question over to John.

[John Woods:]

Thanks. So I think the point here is we saw a pretty rapid rise in the five year over the last several months. As I mentioned, I think at the end of last year is around 40 basis points. It had gotten I think frankly north of 90, but I think it's settling in around 80 right now. That is really emblematic of the first sort of risk triggers that we think about. Basically, this is an interest rate risk hedging program and that hedging program really requires us to consider where our asset sensitivity is and what the downside exposures are? And so from that perspective, we have several sort of triggers and tranches of hedging that we'll do over time. This is the first one. And I think there would be another one as and if rates continue to rise, although it's our expectation that rates will continue to rise. The last sort of couple of weeks is a reminder that things can deviate from your base case. And so we're just being prudent risk managers and taking our asset sensitivity from around 11% to something that's in the very high single digits. And as we get to the top of the rate cycle, we'll get back down to something that's in the lower single digits similar to where we've been in the past. And that's a very prudent sort of approach versus waiting around for the perfect time to begin to edge. The other question you asked was what the received rate was? During that range of 40 to 80 basis points in the five year region, most of that has entered the upper end of that range, but that will give you the answer there.

[Bruce Van Saun:]

Good. All right. I think there's no more questions in the queue. So, again, I want to thank everybody for dialing in today. We certainly appreciate your interest and support. Have a great day and everybody stay well. Thank you.

[Operator:]

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.