ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc.
Q4 2020 Earnings Call Transcript

Published: 28 Jan 2021

[Operator:]

Greetings, and welcome to the ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. Fourth Quarter 2020 Earnings Call. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Siya Vansia, Chief Brand and Innovation Officer for ConnectOne Bancorp. Thank you, you may begin.

[Siya Vansia:]

Good morning, and welcome to today's conference call to review ConnectOne's results for the fourth quarter of 2020 and to update you on recent developments. On today's conference call will be Frank Sorrentino, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Bill Burns, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. The results as well as notice of this conference call on a listen-only basis over the Internet were distributed this morning in a press release that has been covered by the financial media.

[Frank Sorrentino:]

Thank you, Siya, and good morning, everyone. As everyone knows, 2020 was an unprecedented year in which we faced a series of unexpected challenges. As the pandemic worked its way through our markets, we watched our communities demonstrate their resilience by continuing to respond and adapt, and I'm proud of the role that the ConnectOne team played in supporting these communities through these challenging times. Our team responded to the pandemic in a way that defines our core values, demonstrating through action, our commitment to our clients, our communities and our founding principles. This unwavering commitment, coupled with a tech forward operational environment, allowed us to continue business without skipping a beat and is clearly demonstrated in our metrics. Today, the outlook is better than when the pandemic first hit. We're certainly not out of the woods yet. However, we see strong signs that we're on track to continue to build positive momentum towards a robust economic rebound and strong performance. Understanding the challenges we faced during 2020, and that we did not achieve some of the strategic goals we had initially set for the company, I am extremely pleased with the continued execution of our operating strategies.

[Bill Burns:]

Thank you. Thank you, Frank, and good morning, everyone on the call. I too would like to very much thank our staff of a tremendous response and their efforts over the past year in the face of these difficult working conditions. And to that end, we finished the year with a very, very strong fourth quarter. Our preprovision net revenue as a percent of assets surpassed 2%, placing us again near the top of the industry. Some of our peers are releasing reserves, but we added another $5 million, the same as in the sequential third quarter. That amount is approximately $3 million to $4 million in excess of what we have historically provided for a quarter. So even with that elevated provision, we reported, on a GAAP basis, 1.35% ROA and a return on tangible common equity exceeding 15%. If you normalize our provision to what we've done -- put aside before, we would have had an ROA in excess of 1.5% and an ROE approaching 17%. I want to add, that's on a tangible equity basis, grown considerably over the past year. So very, very strong results on either a GAAP or an operating basis. Now as the path to economic recovery is becoming clearer, we see increased ability to return excess capital to shareholders. We plan to do that through a combination of share buybacks and higher dividends, of course, subject to our Board's approval. Supporting this course of action, our tangible book value per share and capital ratios have increased at a very nice pace over the past year. We're at about $17.50 per share, tangible book value close to a 10% increase from $16 a year ago and all of our capital ratios have increased measurably. Our common equity Tier 1 ratio at the holding company is 10.8% and at the bank, it's over 12%. And our dividend payout ratio is running below 15%, and there is ample room to increase our ratio even given due consideration for increased organic growth. Let me now turn it to credit and reserves. So bottom line, our credit is performing well. Our borrowers have benefited from the CARES Act and the accommodations we've afforded them. They have benefited from the ongoing fiscal and monetary stimulus and just in general, the improving economic outlook. So of the loans that would defer originally, some 80% have returned to invoicing and over 95% of those loans returned to invoicing are paying in full and are current. And I want to give you some details on what's left in the $210 million deferment bucket at year-end. And these details give us comfort. First off, more than 95% are collateralized. 70% of the $210 million continue to make some form of payment whether principal or interest. Now the largest subset, about 1/3 of the $210 million is New York City multifamily properties. The collateral is very strong on those properties with underwritten LTVs averaging below 60%. Debt service coverage ratio is no lower than 1.25, but actually quite a bit higher. And keep in mind, these loans are primarily used to fund purchases with significant equity invested by sponsors. We tend to do very little refinance lending in the multifamily space. And we've said this before, we have minimal exposures to hot line industries such as hospitality, travel, energy.

[Frank Sorrentino:]

Thanks, Bill. So while we planned for a very different year in 2020, we adapted and ended the year on a very strong note at all levels. Our infrastructure and talent were able to respond to the challenges while also delivering solid returns. Our earnings profile is strong. Our balance sheet and credit are in a good place. Our already best-in-class efficiency improved even further and our capital position is solid. So as we look ahead, I'd like to reiterate a few key points. We continue to grow organically and see a strong growth rate for the coming year, which we expect to reach high single digits, if not possibly double digits, in the latter part of 2021. We have a valuable franchise, and we continue to benefit from multiple streams of income and increased momentum across the entire platform. We're a skilled acquirer with a track record of integrating both traditional and fintech-focused transactions quickly and effectively. We're continuing our digital enhancements and our investments and are excited about our future and remain confident in our ability to drive value for our shareholders, our team and our clients. We look forward to sharing updates with you as the year unfolds. And with that, I'd be happy to take any questions.

[Operator:]

Our first question comes from the line of Fred Cannon with KBW.

[Fred Cannon:]

It's pleasure to cover you guys at least in the short-term and continue that. Just 2 kind of broad questions really. One is on PPP 2.0 and how you see that evolving versus the first round that we had during 2020?

[Frank Sorrentino:]

Well, I would have to say that in PPP 1, I think we can confidently say we had no idea what we were doing going into that. But I think we have a much, much better handle this time around. I also think that it will be more commonplace in PPP 2 to deal with clients that have already been through the pipe with us on PPP 1. And so the vast majority of those clients will have already been through the process once. We have some new technology up and ready to simplify the process. We understand the process. So I think it will be a less stressful time, not -- no stress, but a lot less stress than the original process. I also think that there will be some opportunity to onboard some new clients that maybe were dissatisfied with the treatment that they received the first time around, and we're seeing some evidence of that as well. But I would say probably the vast majority will be existing clients.

[Fred Cannon:]

And just as a clarification, do you see most -- a majority of clients who receive PPP 1 reapplying for PPP 2?

[Frank Sorrentino:]

Right now, it's about half, and I just think that just maybe people need to assess what the program provides for. First time around, pretty much if you had a warm forehead, you could apply. This time around. I think you need to actually demonstrate what types of revenue declines that you could show between 2019 and 2020 and on to now 2021. So I do think there's a little bit more responsibility on the borrower to demonstrate the actual need. And so that will weed out some of the folks that will be entitled to PPP. But I think it's a little too early in the process to tell you what percentage is actually going to come through or not.

[Fred Cannon:]

And then -- that's helpful. In terms of -- you mentioned fintech acquisitions.

[Frank Sorrentino:]

Hold on. One last point going back to PPP was, I also think we're not going to see there was a mad rush in PPP 1 for very large borrowers that were trying to utilize the program. And I think that's pretty much all but gone.

[Fred Cannon:]

Right. Hopefully, it will be less chaotic, as you said. In terms of fintech acquisitions, we've seen this -- in the last few months, we've seen the stack impact on fintech firms and driving acquisition prices up significantly. Do you see that -- what's going on with the stack market and the number of fintech firms coming to market affecting your acquisition strategy in that area?

[Bill Burns:]

Well, I think it's still right now in the fairway as far as we're concerned about evaluating, looking for good opportunities and looking for where we can work together with a fintech, either if it's in a pure acquisition, a JV partnership or some sort of strategic alliance. So yes, the valuations make it a little bit more difficult from my perspective. But I think at the end of the day, we'll still be able to accomplish the goals that we set out.

[Fred Cannon:]

All right. Great to see the strong momentum coming into the new year.

[Frank Sorrentino:]

Thank you.

[Bill Burns:]

Thank you.

[Operator:]

Our next question comes from the line of Frank Schiraldi with Piper Sandler.

[Frank Schiraldi:]

I just want to start on -- Frank, on the momentum in loan growth you talked about, particularly your thoughts in the back half of the year. Is some of that acceleration based on the fact that the multifamily space has maybe gotten a little less competitive? Or just a little more color maybe if you could on what's driving your optimism there?

[Bill Burns:]

Well, as we -- as I spoke to in the -- in my comments, we did see strong growth and a strong pipeline, even in 2020. A lot of the businesses that we have a priority in have done quite well. Our construction portfolio and our builders, developers, managers, they are all hitting on quite a few cylinders, especially in the suburban markets here in New Jersey, Long Island and elsewhere. So unfortunately, that was offset by a lot of payoffs. But if you saw the real strength behind the number of loan originations we did in 2020, and that was in the teeth of the COVID pandemic, as we roll forward into '20, our expectation is a lot of the backdrop is going to fall away a bit. And the efforts we put in, in 2020 are just going to roll forward in 2021. We'll continue to see additional growth in our pipeline, but will have less in the way of payoffs. That's also against the backdrop of I believe -- we believe, collectively, that the economy is just going to get a little bit better and a little bit stronger, whether it's because of the vaccine, whether it's because we figured out how to live with COVID, whatever it is. I think all the really significant ups and downs in the economy are going to start to flatten out a bit. And I think people are going to start to realize that New York City is not going to empty out completely. They're not going to put a fence around it and close it. People are going to start to return to some semblance of normal life. And that's going to bode very well for us. Plus, we find ourselves in a variety of markets that have shown resilience and strength throughout the pandemic and we expect those to get even stronger as we move through 2021. So the combination of all those things gives us a lot of confidence to say that in 2021, our organic growth will continue to increase the net growth of the company.

[Frank Schiraldi:]

Okay. And just as it pertains to the multifamily side of things, how do you see those loan balances flat, up, down? I mean, I know they've been kind of contracting over time. But what are your thoughts for 2021 as maybe the space has changed a little bit?

[Frank Sorrentino:]

Yes. I think we'll see either flat or -- as far as percentage of portfolio, I think we'll see flat or possibly increasing slightly.

[Frank Schiraldi:]

Okay. And then Bill, just on the deferral. Now that we're at year-end and we've gone through, I guess, pretty much 6 months, I know there's an extension now for the COVID deferrals. What are your thoughts for how this migrates over the next couple of quarters? Do we see a decent amount migrate into NPA status? And if so, just wondering -- it seems like you guys are pretty comfortable with your reserves to date here.

[Bill Burns:]

Yes. No, no, that's a good question. At some point, right, the deferrals can't go on forever. And then banks, including ConnectOne and old banks will have to make a determination for loans that are impaired to put them in those categories. So I think you're going to see industry-wide, at some point, an increase in impaired loans, potentially nonperformers. But I don't see the losses being all that big. The collateral is pretty strong. And I think we're well reserved at this point. So from a capital perspective, book value perspective, I don't think there's going to be much of an impact. But yes, it's possible that we'll see an uptick in those numbers across the industry.

[Operator:]

Our next question comes from the line of Matthew Breese with Stephens Inc.

[Matthew Breese:]

I was hoping to get a -- I know you said spreads are wide, you expect compression. Maybe could you frame for us, as you look at the pipeline, what the blended loan yield is today versus a year ago and the extent of spread compression that we might see. Maybe you could give us an idea of what you're thinking there.

[Bill Burns:]

Well, first off, the spread expansion widening is in the order of 50 basis points or more when I'm looking at the past -- since the pandemic started compared to before. So right now, we're starting off with spreads that are typically wider than we've been used to in the years leading up to the pandemic. How fast it's going to compress? It's hard to say. But all things considered, I feel confident about the margin here at ConnectOne being able to stabilize it at these levels. And as I mentioned, there's a couple of reasons why our margin will improve. One being the repurchase of the sub debt; and two, we've got a lot of repricing going on with the CDs. So we'll be able to handle some compression on the asset generation side and still maintain our margin.

[Matthew Breese:]

And as you think about the interest rate positioning of the balance sheet, can you just talk a little bit about where you stand today as far as asset-sensitive, neutral, liability-sensitive? And how you're kind of thinking about the next few years and where you want to be?

[Bill Burns:]

What was that? I think we're just -- we're in good shape right now to benefit -- look, if the yield curve steepens, that's going to help us. To the extent yields stay where they are, I see the margins staying within a band that I've been talking about, plus or minus 5 basis points.

[Matthew Breese:]

Okay. And then -- I'm sorry, Bill, go ahead.

[Bill Burns:]

No, no, no. I wouldn't worry too much about rates rising or falling and what the impact is going to be on us. We're pretty well managed to try to maintain a stable margin.

[Matthew Breese:]

Yes. Understood. And then beyond just the fundamentals of the bank, you guys have done a few deals more recently, whole bank deals. Just curious have conversation flows have been over the last handful of months as most banks have reported lower deferrals. I would assume conversation flows increased. Just want to get a sense and how you think about participating in M&A?

[Frank Sorrentino:]

Yes. Matt, I would tell you that in the March-April time frame, nobody wanted to talk about M&A. And I think in the November-December time frame and January, everybody is talking about some form of M&A. I don't think it's lost on any bank's CEO today that the world is changing. My comments about it's not really 2021, it's 2030. We just got the opportunity to see it 9 years early. Has really awakened people to think about things that they probably didn't think about prior to the pandemic. And there's been a real acceleration in the marketplace and a dramatic shift in how people think about just ordinary everyday occurrences and the way they go through their lives. And banking is not immune from that. So I do think everyone's talking about it. I -- if you're asking me specifically, yes, there's definitely conversations or an increase in the number of conversations across the entire spectrum. So I think we're going to see very active -- as an industry, I think we're going to see a very active 2021.

[Matthew Breese:]

That's great. Just last one. Bill, what was the accretable yield income this quarter?

[Bill Burns:]

On purchase accounting?

[Matthew Breese:]

Yes.

[Bill Burns:]

13 basis points.

[Operator:]

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our time allowed for questions. I'll turn the floor back to management for any final comments.

[Frank Sorrentino:]

Well, I just want to thank everyone for tuning in here today for our fourth quarter report and year-end review for ConnectOne Bank. And I certainly look forward to being together with you again as we report on our first quarter. So thank you all, and enjoy the rest of your day.

[Operator:]

Thank you. This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.