Canadian Pacific Railway Limited
Q4 2011 Earnings Call Transcript

Published: 26 Jan 2012

[Operator:]

Good morning. My name is Matthew, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Canadian Pacific's Fourth Quarter 2011 Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Ms. Weiss, you may begin your conference.

[Janet Weiss:]

Thank you, Matthew. Good morning, and thanks for joining us. The presenters today will be Fred Green, our President and CEO; Kathryn McQuade, our EVP and Chief Financial Officer; Mike Franczak, EVP Operations; and Jane O'Hagan, EVP and Chief Marketing Officer. Also joining us on the call today is Brian Grassby, our Senior VP Finance and Controller. The slides accompanying today's teleconference are available on our website. Before we get started, let me remind you that this presentation contains forward-looking information. Actual results may differ materially. The risk, uncertainties and other factors that could influence actual results are described on Slide 2 and 3 in the press release and in the MD&A filed with Canadian and U.S. securities regulators. Please read carefully as these assumptions could change throughout the year. All dollars quoted in the presentation are Canadian, unless otherwise stated. This presentation also contains non-GAAP measures. Please read Slide 4. Finally, when we do go to Q&A, I'd like to remind you that the purpose of today's call is to discuss our financial results and trends. We will therefore not be addressing Pershing Square's investments in CP or answering any questions on that topic. In fairness to all participants, I'd ask you to limit your questions to one each. Here then is our President and CEO, Fred Green.

[Frederic J. Green:]

Thanks, Janet, and good morning, everyone. CP's multi-year plan is built on 3 pillars

[Kathryn B. McQuade:]

Thank you, Fred, and good morning, everyone. We ended 2011 and are starting the year with strong operational metrics, which we expect will translate financially in 2012. As I take you through the fourth quarter numbers, I will indicate where these operational metrics are starting to deliver financial results. I will also provide an update on our 2012 pension expense, which is a good news story based on the actions we have taken. So let's get into the numbers, and then I will turn it over to Mike. To make the accountants happy, I will begin with GAAP earnings on Slide 9, which includes a large tax item. Total revenues were up 9% with 4% coming from fuel recovery. Jane will walk you through the details later in the presentation. Operating expenses were up 11% with fuel price driving 6% of that increase. Operating income was up 2%. Items below the line total $82 million, and I will give you more detail on those in a moment. Net income was $221 million, an increase of $35 million or 19% and diluted earnings per share were $1.30. The OR for the quarter was 78.5%, up 150 basis points. Higher fuel price makes up almost all of that increase, so essentially our fourth quarter OR would have been flat year-over-year. Turning to Slide 10. Included in our GAAP results was a tax adjustment of $37 million or $0.22 diluted EPS, resulting from the resolution of certain income tax matters related to previous year tax filings and estimates. Our diluted earnings per share, excluding the income tax benefit, was $1.08. Now let's look at each of the expense line items in more detail. Let's start with compensation and benefits on Slide 11. In total, comp and benefits was up $27 million or 7% for the quarter. Incentive comp was down $18 million, however, this was partially offset by stock-based compensation, which was up $15 million due to a higher stock price. Training costs are up $10 million this quarter in line with our hiring. We will see training costs essentially flat in 2012 with higher levels in the first half and reducing into the second half of the year. Wage and benefit inflation increased this line $8 million, and our pension expense was higher by $4 million. Volume related expenses were up $6 million, and we saw improvements in our crew train ratio, a function of our fluidity. We ended the year at 14,764 expense employees. Looking at Q1 2012, we expect the number of average expense employees to be relatively flat. Other items total $2 million and includes the impact from the closure of our Calgary back shop, a key deliverable in our locomotive reliability centers or LRC strategy. Bringing some locomotive work back in-house is key to our LRC plans and shifts expenses from purchase services to the comp line. As a reminder, our multi-year shop consolidation plan, which reduces from 8 regional facilities to 5 -- to 4 highly efficient super shops, will result in long-term structural cost savings of over $15 million to $20 million a year when the final phases are complete. But as Mike will tell you, the true lift comes from better reliability and availability, and the work to date is already delivering results. Turning to Slide 12, fuel expense was up $65 million or 32% on the quarter. We saw $6 million in savings or 3% improvement in fuel efficiency, a reflection of the operational metrics the team's delivered in the quarter. We are on track to deliver on our multi-year target of improving fuel consumption by a CAGR of 1% to 2%. Price increased this line $58 million as our all-in cost was USD $3.45 per gallon, up from $2.68. This 29% increase in price, while substantially recovered in our fuel surcharge program, still negatively affects our OR by 130 basis points since it is just a recovery with no margin. Higher workload increased fuel expense by $10 million on the quarter as other items netted to $3 million. Turning now to purchase services on Slide 13, we were up $10 million or 5%. Relocations were favorable by $4 million. In 2010, operations completed a reorganization, which reduced the number of operating territories from 11 to 6. In New York, Mike spoke to the importance of his new organization, which reduces layers and clarifies accountabilities all the way to the front-line worker to speed decision making. Shop expenses were lower by $3 million, a result of the in-sourcing of locomotive work I just spoke to. These decreases were offset by higher volume-related expenses of $8 million, IT expenses of $4 million, locomotive overhaul costs of $4 million and casualty costs of $3 million. Q4 land sales were on target at $20 million, finishing the year at $25 million. The timing of land sales is hard to judge but in 2012, you can expect to see land sales in the range of $10 million to $15 million, most expected in the latter half of the year. Turning to the remaining operating expenses on Slide 14. Materials were up $2 million on the quarter, driven largely by the increase in price of non-freight fuel. Equipment rents saw benefits from our operating fluidity. Foreign car rents were down $4 million as the ops team drove improved terminal dwell and train speeds to reduce the number of active foreign cars online. Offsetting this increase, I mean offsetting this decrease however, were higher leasing cost driven by higher rates and volume. With a record-setting car miles a day the ops team is delivering, you can expect many of these longer-term leased assets will be returned as leases expire. Depreciation was up $2 million on the quarter, which is consistent with our accelerated capital program. Now let's go to Slide 15. Other income and charges were up $15 million driven by higher advisory fees of $6 million, lower FX gains of $3 million and debt related costs in the quarter totaling $4 million. Other items netted to $2 million. And finally, interest expense was down $4 million on the quarter. Looking at 2012, interest expense should be about $280 million. During Q4, we issued $625 million of debt to prefund our pension plan, and you'll see the benefit of this transaction in our pension expense, which I'll speak to in a moment. Turning now to Slide 16. Excluding the tax benefit I'd spoke to earlier, our Q4 effective tax rate came in at 20.7%, bringing the effective rate for the year to 23.5%, in line with our projected annual tax rate of 24% to 26%. Looking at 2012, we expect our effective tax rate to rise slightly and to be in the range of 25% to 27%. We will see very low cash taxes in 2012. Pension prepayments are tax efficient. And as a result, we do not expect to be cash taxable in Canada until 2015. Any cash taxes we will have in 2012 will be related to our U.S. operations. Turning to pensions on Slide 17. Our defined benefit pension expense for 2011 was $46 million. With the voluntary prepayment made in late 2011, our defined benefit pension expense for 2012 is now expected to be $41 million. Our pension strategy, net of interest, is accretive to earnings. As we have stated previously, pension expense is a substantial headwind for CP. We still see our pension expense increasing significantly over the next several years and currently, estimate pension expense to be $125 million in 2013. Now, let's turn to the cash side of pensions. With the additional prepayment, I am now planning to range contributions to be between $100 million and $125 million for each of the next few years. This is down from our previous estimate of $125 million to $150 million. Turning now to Slide 18. I'm pleased with how we've been able to position the balance sheet and to put our surplus cash to work in 2011 on our productivity initiatives, supporting our capital plans. During the year, we increased our dividends by 11% and completed our planned accelerated capital program. We focused on managing the balance sheet to maintain flexibility and reduce volatility. We repaid USD $245 million of maturing 2011 debt, called USD $101 million of 2013 debt, financed our new locomotives at very attractive rates and made our $600 million pension prepayment. Looking forward, we have no debt maturities in the near term, a renewed revolver going out to 2015 and improved earnings. Our liquidity position is strong and our balance sheet is flexible. When you look at our cash flow before the voluntary pension prepayment, we generated $1.1 billion from operations after investing in the future of the business through CapEx and returning cash to our shareholders in the form of dividends. Cash flow was a negative $124 million before the pension prepayment. As I said, CP is putting its surplus cash balance to work for the benefit of the company and our shareholders. Turning to capital expenditures on Slide 19. In 2011, we delivered on our accelerated capital program of $1.1 billion, which includes the multi-year productivity investments we spoke to on Investor Day. We focused on several key programs

[J. Michael Franczak:]

Thanks, Kathryn. The operations team delivered a solid performance in the fourth quarter. Not only did we fully recover the network, we delivered record-breaking improvements in several key operating metrics and fully restored our service levels. This improvement is consistent with the projections we made last quarter. These results were achieved through the disciplined execution of our Integrated Operating Plan, the multi-year plan programs we started over a year ago and by focusing on our core priorities of service reliability, efficiency and safety. We're off to a solid start in 2012, and we'll continue to drive improvements in all key aspects of our business. Let's get started on Slide 21. This quarter, personal injury safety improved 3%. Despite a strong improvement relative to the first 3 quarters of the year, our train accident rate increased 9% in Q4. Notwithstanding this result, it is our second best quarter in the last number of years. Our focus on safety continues in all aspects of our operations and remains a central element of our multi-year plan. Please turn to Slide 22. Our continued work on building new sidings and extending current ones to support our long-train strategy is paying dividends as we set new full year records in both train weights and train lengths. We saw our biggest gains on our bulk trains, where we increased weights and lengths by 1% and 2%, respectively. Take our coal trains, for example. We met our target of completing 5 siding improvements with 4 more to come and have extended the Fording River mine loop track, which allows us now to load 152 car trains at Teck's highest producing coal mine. With these improvements, we are now running 8 coal sets at our design target of 152 cars. As we leverage our planned investments in the network and our use of distributed power technology, we will increase the productivity of our Vancouver export coal and potash trains by more than 15%. In doing so, these longer, more fuel-efficient trains will reduce the total number of trains required, thus creating labor savings, reduce track and equipment wear and lower associated maintenance requirements. The enhanced efficiency we are achieving with longer trains is and will continue to be the key driver of value creation for Canadian Pacific. Please join me on the next slide, 23. Gross ton miles per active horsepower was flat for the quarter, but we saw solid improvement month over month, and I'm confident this trend will continue. Gross ton miles per expense employee improved 1%, setting a new fourth quarter record. This is a key measure of our employees' productivity and another area where we will continuously improve. Please turn to Slide 24. During the quarter, we moved higher volumes while realizing successive steady improvements in all of our service and efficiency metrics, setting Q4 and full year records in both terminal dwell and car miles per car day. Looking at the quarterly results, train speed improved by 8% due to our ongoing capacity investment and our rigorous approach to executing the plan every day. Our continued focus on the execution of our first mile/last mile program and our ability to aggressively store railcars drove a 20% improvement in terminal dwell. And these improvements helped drive car miles per car day down 20%, allowing us to move 5% more gross ton miles with 14% fewer active cars. This is a key measure of asset utilization, and we expect further improvement in 2012. Lastly, we realized a 3% improvement in fuel efficiency, tying a previous Q4 record. This is our largest single operations expense, and we were able to effectively control it through targeted investments and disciplined execution. With 61 new AC locomotives now online and another 30 coming in Q1, we're well positioned to remove higher cost, less reliable, less fuel-efficient locomotives from the property. We now have over 260 locomotives equipped with Fuel Trip Optimizer, or FTO, technology. And by year end 2012, we'll have over 50% of our large road fleet FTO-equipped. Our planned remanufacturing of 50 locomotives used in yard and road services is underway, providing not only increased fuel efficiency but also upgraded haulage capacity and locotrol capability to support the expansion of our long-train strategy in the U.S. Midwest. Through these commitments and programs, we remain on track to achieve our goal of realizing 1% to 2% in annual fuel savings over the next several years. And in comparison to 2011, I expect to realize a 3% to 4% year-over-year improvement in 2012. Let's move on to Slide 25. As you can see in our key efficiency metrics, we have made significant improvements in our network since the start of 2011, and we have started 2012 on an excellent note continuing to sustain or improve on our key metrics. As we progress with the programs outlined at our Investor Days in 2010 and 2011, I expect further improvements to be realized across all of these metrics. The improved efficiencies allow us to do more with less and to reduce our asset pools. In some cases, this means returning leased assets; in others, deferring or forgoing the acquisition of additional resources. For example, by reducing the number of active cars online by 14%, we have now set ourselves up for railcar lease returns. Our first mile/last mile program has been instrumental in driving some of these results. Our Canadian rollout of this program is now essentially complete and our U.S. implementation work will be complete by Q2 2012. We have seen significant reduction in arrival-to-place times of railcars, and most customers are now proactively managing their pipelines to avoid demerged assessments. And while the improved service levels resulting from the program have generated positive customer feedback, we are always looking to raise the bar on service and efficiency. By the end of 2012, we will cut arrival-to-place times by 24 hours across the network. The results of our Canadian Grain Reliability Program [ph] are equally impressive. We filled 100% of the orders we planned to fill during the quarter. Daily on-time spotting performance for the quarter was 92% and 96% for the month of December as we continued to improve. Vancouver export grain cycles improved by 11% and winter grain cycles to Eastern Canadian ports improved by 19%. Jane will speak to some other impressive record-setting grain metrics, but you can expect to see more improvements as we roll out our U.S. Grain Reliability Program fully in 2012. Please join me on Slide 26. We've now completed the second phase of our Locomotive Reliability Centre strategy, which will reduce the number of major locomotive repair facilities from 8 to 4 highly-efficient super shops with improved repair capabilities. These shop consolidations will be completed by the end of 2012, and we've already realized a 1.3% improvement in locomotive availability in Q4 versus last year. As a point of reference, a 1% improvement is equivalent to roughly 15 locomotives and affords us the ability to reduce our overall fleet. Shop productivity continues to improve with labor hours per unit maintained down 4%. Our cycle times improved 16% with our Ailes [ph] shop realizing a 30% improvement in Q4. These high-production shops and our lean continuous improvement approach will drive further improvements in locomotive availability and reliability. In engineering, our recently negotiated agreement with the Teamsters provided us with the ability for extended rotating work cycles, greater rest day flexibility and the ability to move crews outside of their normal seniority districts. This allowed our Prairie rail crews in Manitoba and Saskatchewan to exceed the targeted equipment utilization rate with a 35% increase in productivity. As a result of our lean approach, we've also realized significant year-over-year productivity improvements for our rail and tie crews, as measured by block rates or units per block hour. This improvement enabled us to complete all planned work by the end of September and advanced 30 track miles worth of upgrades on the North Line. Please turn to Slide 27. To sum up, this quarter was all about improving service and efficiency and we delivered, setting many new records. We not only regain the confidence of our customers but in many cases, surpassed their expectations. Our multi-year plan and operations is well underway and producing great results. In the fourth quarter, we realized excellent performance in service and efficiency, and we expect to see reduced expenses quickly follow as we continue to drive out surplus assets and further improve fuel efficiency. The network is fluid, with many of our performance metrics exceeding earlier established targets, and we will continue to raise the bar. Accountabilities are clear, and our team is motivated. Going forward, our main focus will continue to be delivering sustainable improvements in service reliability, efficiency and safety, creating value for customers and shareholders. For 2012, our plans include completing another 15 infrastructure projects as part of our long-train strategy to meet demand and improve productivity, continuing to drive our fuel efficiency programs, completing the implementation of our Locomotive Reliability Centre program, expanding are scheduled grain program to the U.S., further improvement of our first and last mile programs to reduce the need for assets, and building on our existing safety management system. These are just a few of the many programs we have planned for 2012 to drive sustainable improvements in our march towards a lower operating ratio. I'll now turn you over to Jane.

[Jane A. O’Hagan:]

Thank you, Mike, and good morning. I'm very pleased with the results the team produced for the quarter and over the year. Let me start by elaborating on our successes we've had, leveraging the great product Mike and his team has produced. Then I'll walk through the quarter and our views for 2012. At Investor Days in years past, we talked about a number of market development initiatives, including strengthening our bulk portfolio, capitalizing on Asian demand and making our markets in energy. In 2011, we delivered on those initiatives. In bulk, our Teck partnership is an example of how we're maximizing value by delivering both growth and efficiencies. We have also secured a new contract with Canpotex, and we introduced a new grain product in Canada that has delivered market share and car loading records. Lastly, we have opportunistically developed new thermal coal business, all in line with this strategic objective. For energy, CP is the only carrier that serves all 3 of the North American energy plays, the oil sands, the Bakken, the Marcellus Shale, and we have delivered on our market development strategies with both CP and customer investment and infrastructure resulting in solid growth for inbound materials, outbound crude and byproducts. Our core Intermodal business is back, and we continue to improve. But while there is more to do, I'd assure you that we're working aggressively to improve our business. I'll start on Slide 30 with an overview of revenue performance in the quarter. On the quarter, there was minimal FX impact. Overall, Q4 '11 freight revenues improved 9% over Q4 2010. Revenue ton miles were up 4% and carloads were flat. Fuel surcharge revenue accounted for 4% of the overall revenue gains, with price and mix driving the remaining 5% of growth. We delivered on our price planned targets in every quarter of 2011. Great service leads to value and growth. Our customers are commenting positively on CP's service reliability. And in 2012, we will leverage these service improvements for value in the marketplace. I'll summarize the performance by market and offer some perspective on what I see as I look into 2012. Grain is a great story. As a result of the scheduled grain product launched in August 2011, our Q4 Canadian grain business grew more than 25% in revenue and carloads. In contrast, reduced production and weak demand for U.S. grain drove an approximate 15% reduction for that franchise. Our net results, at 8% revenue growth, demonstrates that we've been able to capitalize on strong markets for Canadian grains and oilseeds to offset weakness in U.S. grain exports. Our excellent service reliability and supply chain collaboration in Canadian grain has resulted in record carloads crop year-to-date, 10% above our best year of '06, '07. In the U.S., given the high global feed grain inventories, we expect ongoing volatility for the remainder of the crop year. Looking forward to the first half of 2012, Statistics Canada's December forecast increased Western Canadian production estimates for the 6 majors from approximately 45 million metric tons to 47.4 million metric tons. This represents an approximate 5% increase over the previous estimate. And with our sustained service performance, we should deliver good share in volumes in Canadian grain through the balance of this crop year. We've also made great progress in coal. Revenues grew 25% on flat year-over-year car loadings. We have diversified our portfolio through the development of new markets. We have replaced low-margin, short-haul U.S. thermal coal with growth in long-haul export met coal, and as we told you, secured new PRB coal through Ridley Terminal. We lapped the short-haul U.S. reduction in Q1 2012 so you won't have to hear me talk about it anymore. As Mike has noted, we are ahead of schedule for our long-train conversion of export coal sets and are delivering excellent performance and efficiency. Looking forward, the long-term fundamentals for met coal demand remained intact, and Teck continues to expand production. Our network and the supply chain are fully prepared to respond to Teck's growth. We remain confident in the long-term growth prospects of this segment. In the near term, economic uncertainty is creating some potential risk in global met coal markets. PRB volumes may prove to be a partial counter, with expanded capacity now online at Ridley Terminal. Volatility and the timing of demand may result in average revenue per car noise if we see a low in export met volumes while the shorter-haul PRB exports continue on pace. Now I'll move to sulfur and fertilizers on Slide 33. We are delighted with the new Canpotex agreement. The new contract delivers both price and productivity improvements, revenue per car increases, we have a fully responsive fuel program, and by leveraging the shorter mile North Line roads and more long trains, we will be able to decrease CP's unit cost on export potash. The agreement continues our long-term partnership, secures a very large majority of the volume to Vancouver, BC and maintains our exclusive route to the Portland, Oregon outlet. The 10-year term provides the foundation for both CP and customer investment to facilitate further low-cost growth in this key segment. For 2012, we're seeing some uncertainty around first-half shipment timing, but full-year demand for fertilizers is expected to be solid based on the agronomic fundamentals. There is significant product positioned, and we have seen some global and North American production adjustments to manage inventory, but we expect demand to build through the first half as the crop applications progress. So while there is some uncertainty around the timing, we are modeling 2012 total fertilizer and sulfur volumes in line with 2011. Turning to Slide 34. In Q4 2011, Intermodal revenues declined 2% with 6% fewer units versus Q4 2010. As Mike has told you, the operation ran very well in Q4. Our service reliability and our on-time train performance was excellent, and our Intermodal customers noticed. We have 100% of our shipping lines and their key lanes. As we continue to deliver quality service, they can grow their business on CP and we will improve our joint market share. We have seen volume stabilize in our core markets and expect them to build into Q2 and beyond. Importantly, we have not lost any contracts. Our customers and CP are growing volume lane by lane as they gain confidence in our sustained performance. We are meeting with customers about the timing of volume growth on an ongoing basis, and I was recently back in Asia to reinforce our customer relationships there. While our core business is back, I'm not yet satisfied with our current Intermodal volume. And through service and our slate of market development initiatives, we will deliver further growth. We just signed a 5-year deal with Canadian Tire, a leading Canadian retailer and 1 of our top 5 Intermodal customers, and we continue to expand our colocation strategy. We will do more, so stay tuned. There is more to come in 2012. Looking forward, despite global economic volatility, a slower pace of growth in China and excess shipping line capacity, by executing on our initiatives, the resulting recovery of share with growth in the North American GDP should drive CP Intermodal volume growth of GDP plus for 2012. Moving on to Slide 35. I'm excited about the market opportunities and our merchandise portfolio. We are delivering quality service. We continue to build collaborative relationships with customers and are making new markets, particularly in energy. We are all proud of the focus and the effort of our team, driving a year-over-year 18% revenue growth. In automotive, Q4 2011 revenue increased 25% with increased car loadings of 15%. The growth was driven by increased light vehicle sales, both sequentially and year-over-year, CP's diversified portfolio, our solid service and relationships with market-leading partners. Forecasts indicate continued growth in North American vehicle sales in 2012, and we are modeling demand growth consistent with sales projections. Industrial products revenue grew 20% on unit growth of 12% year-over-year. Of note in Q4, we opened a new long-haul direct crude oil market to the U.S. Northeast and secured new facility developments in the CP served oilfields. We have a proven crude-by-rail product and are leveraging our network and its capability for further growth. Stay tuned in the coming weeks for significant announcements on how we're driving more growth in industrial products. In all, we're very excited about the prospects in front of us. We have the foundation to deliver continued strength and double-digit growth rates through 2012 and beyond. Overall, we will expect strong merchandise growth of 2 to 3x GDP in 2012. We spoke to you in the past about our market development initiatives and our results showed that we are delivering growth throughout our book of business. We demonstrated sustained service performance across all our customer segments, and this has allowed us to deliver against our price targets. Looking to 2012, our service is supporting our customers' growth and enabling our market development strategies. We are making our markets in energy, growing with existing and new customers in global bulk commodities, and executing on our plan to deliver growth and value today and throughout 2012. With that, I'll hand it back to Fred to wrap it up.

[Frederic J. Green:]

Thanks, Jane. From a market perspective, we remain positive about our prospects for the bulk commodities and energy markets, and we continue to position the organization for longer-term growth. And we see a tremendous number of opportunities in both existing and new markets. Operationally, we are making great strides in enhancing our efficiency and we are starting to see the payoff from the network enhancements and process improvements that are underway. We have improved customer confidence, and we will continue to take costs out of the system while maintaining and improving service levels across our network. We have returned to a more efficient and sustained operational performance. And as we described today, we have achieved double-digit improvements across several of our key metrics. These improved operational results in Q4 set the stage for meaningful improvements in our financial performance in 2012, starting as early as the first quarter. Our team is focused on achieving an operating ratio of 70% to 72% in the next 3 years, and we're confident that we'll do so. And once we hit those targets, we won't stop. Before turning it over to Q&A, as Janet mentioned, the purpose of today's call is to discuss our financial results and trends. We will therefore not be addressing Pershing Square's investment in CP or answering any questions on that topic. Now I'll turn it over to the operator to open up the line for questions.

[Operator:]

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Cherilyn Radbourne with TD Securities.

[Cherilyn Radbourne:]

I hate to open the question period by asking a question on pension. But I wonder if you could review for us why it jumped from $41 million to $125 million in 2013. Give us some sense of what you mean by normal equity market returns and modest increases in bond yields. And comment on whether you would consider another prepayment in 2012, to try and bring down that $125 million.

[Kathryn B. McQuade:]

Man, that's a lot of questions in one question. But we can certainly take it offline if you have additional questions. But what we are seeing is very consistent with what we saw and gave you in the latest Investor Day. We always knew that it was going to rise over the multi-year period. The pension prepayment did substantially bring that down. It brought it down $47 million in 2012. It will bring it down slightly less than that in 2013 and on out. But what we see is, of course, the low interest rate environment that continues to put pressure. And so everything’s an estimate over the longer term, but what we have is our 20 -- what we believe is that the pension will essentially increase as our equity losses from 2008 continue to be amortized, that's a 5-year period. We did have equity losses in 2011 as well. That will be amortized over the remaining 5 years. So our legacy pension burden, or headwind, is less the cost of our pension prepayment and will be a function of market returns, which would be more historical. So we usually estimate about 7.5% on equity returns and -- so not astronomical equity returns. And what we look to see is interest rate environments closer to historical norms. In terms of a pension prepayment, I don't see anywhere in the near future a need for any additional pension prepayments. What we are anticipating is this prepayment would last us out through 2015. And certainly, most people assume that the interest rate environment would become more historical further out. So that will start correcting what I believe is some illogical values for our pension liability that's being caused by the low interest rate environment. So I'm not -- unless something really changes in terms of the economic environment, I'm not seeing a real need for any pension prepayment.

[Operator:]

Your next question comes from the line of Fadi Chamoun with BMO Capital Markets.

[Fadi Chamoun:]

So question on margin, just wanted to understand. So in 2010, you had 77.6% operating ratio. From what we're seeing in terms of your metric across the board, they're at least as good or better than where you were in 2010, and even the pension headwind is a little bit more moderate, at least in 2012 versus what we had expected. Is it realistic for us to assume that we can see a reversal in the margin to the 2010 level this year? And if not, what sort of the pluses and minuses that are going in there?

[Kathryn B. McQuade:]

So Fadi, I'll start off. 2010 is still -- I mean a lot of things have changed since 2010. And as I've said, we've got higher training costs that we are experiencing right now and some IT costs. So there is some onetime items that have longer-term value but haven’t [ph] actually hit the expense line items in our OR when you're comparing to 2010 versus 2011 fourth quarter. I gave some guidance in terms of what we're seeing -- in terms of our training costs, you will see in 2012 our 2011 -- 2012 training cost essentially flat with 2011, but it will be higher at the beginning of the year and kind of tailing off. So when you look at it, we have -- we are seeing productivity and efficiency, and we would see a more return to more historical OR levels, but there will be still seasonality in our OR overall.

[Fadi Chamoun:]

Okay. So I guess, it's a realistic outcome if the market behaves in terms of your top line as you had expected. But with some quarterly seasonality, is that what I should be taking away from this?

[Kathryn B. McQuade:]

Yes, I think that's fair.

[Operator:]

Your next question comes from the line of Turan Quettawala with Scotia Capital.

[Turan Quettawala:]

I guess, maybe just -- you give a lot of color on the fuel side, I just wanted to understand better on the employee side. I know there's some attrition that will play out here. When should we start seeing that happen and the decline in expense employees? Maybe just longer term, you could give broad numbers.

[Kathryn B. McQuade:]

So what we are seeing is productivity improvements on a GTM basis and it will be a function overall of continuing to improve on that metric. We have our continued attrition, which is about over 1,000 employees a year, which attrit out over the next 5 years. So while we did go into the winter months, it takes, what, 9 months to train and to have employees available. We did have them ahead of the winter. Mike and the team are always aggressively sizing the amount of requirements to what Jane is projecting in terms of the business level. So we are not seeing, in our projections, any major increase. And as I said first quarter, we expect our active employees to be essentially flat with where we ended the year. And of course, we're going to look for higher business levels as we go into 2012.

[Turan Quettawala:]

Okay. But I guess, you said over 1,000 employees a year over the next 2 years. Should we expect some decline there as well or not? Or it just going to be more GTMs per employee that will go -- that will...

[Kathryn B. McQuade:]

Turan, what we measure, of course, our productivity will be productivity per GTM. So as we see growth in GTMs, we want to see productivity lists from our long-train strategies, our shops, our ES work, as well as our -- but anyway, so what we are actually focusing on is productivity per business level, and so it will be a function of the business level, and Mike will size his resources appropriately. But what we are seeing, at least for the first quarter, is essentially a flat active employment.

[Operator:]

Your next question comes from the line of Chris Ceraso with Crédit Suisse.

[Christopher J. Ceraso:]

I have a question about the OR target, with just a couple of subparts. First of all, what sort of a role do you expect pricing to play in getting down to the 70% to 72% range? Is it 1/2 of it? Is it 1/3 of it? And is it -- is 3% or so for your pricing, is that enough to get you there? And then secondly, in the same context. Just to clarify when you say in the next 3 years, is that from today, so we're talking about 2012? And how much exactly of an increase in discount rates are you expecting?

[Frederic J. Green:]

So Chris, it's Fred. I'll start and just say that for perfect clarity, 2012, 2013, 2014 are the 3 years that we refer to. So our 70% to 72% operating ratio target is for that timeframe and that we're not going to stop there. So maybe I can ask Kathryn to deal with the discount question and Jane on pricing with regard to our expectations.

[Kathryn B. McQuade:]

So I would refer you back to our Investor Day and the -- it's still very consistent. We still see growth -- more historical growth in our volumes. Jane's inflation plus pricing levels. So essentially, I think if you go back to our Investor Day, about 50% of it came from revenue lift and about 50% from productivity. And that, of course, was being offset by our pension headwinds. So that -- and then on the discount rate, are you -- I guess, you're asking about the pension plan?

[Christopher J. Ceraso:]

Well, 2 things there. One of them was in your comment about the 2012 expense expectation, you said a modest increase in discount rates. So I wanted to know is that 25 bps, is it 50 bps? And then within your 2014 number, how much higher do you think rates will be by the time we get there within the 70% to 72%? Is it 50 bps higher, is it 100 bps higher?

[Kathryn B. McQuade:]

It's a very gradual rise in 2013, 2014 and about 100 over the 3-year period.

[Operator:]

Your next question comes from the line of Benoit Poirier with Desjardins Securities.

[Benoit Poirier:]

Maybe just one question. What are the main impediments to reach a 65% operating ratio in 2015?

[Frederic J. Green:]

Well, Benoit, that -- I think we made very clear in the multi-year plan. We've got a very, very specific and detailed plan that provides us the opportunity to apply the initiatives you've seen, the growth initiatives, the expansion of the capacity. And that, all-in, properly executed, which we plan to do, delivers to 70% to 72%. There are clearly a -- as Ed Harris quoted not very long ago, substantial difference in the structural makeup of different railroads, and it is unrealistic in our -- in these time frames in our view to get to those numbers.

[Operator:]

Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Kauffman with Sterne Agee.

[Salvatore Vitale:]

This is Sal Vitale on for Jeff Kauffman. Just a quick question. On the labor side, just working out the increase in wage and benefits. I think it worked to about 2% year-on-year versus 4Q '10. What should we be thinking about the inflation in that line, say, going forward for 2012?

[Kathryn B. McQuade:]

We're planning about between 2% and 3%.

[Salvatore Vitale:]

2% and 3%, okay. And then you said the training cost will be roughly flat in 2011. Is there anything else on the labor side that we should be thinking about?

[Frederic J. Green:]

Well, maybe I'll just jump in on that one, and maybe it follows up on an earlier question. But I did comment on the fact that we're continuously driving improvements in our labor productivity rates. Those are linked to our long-train strategy, the work we're doing in our Locomotive Reliability Centres. We are seeing improvements in our crew train ratios. All of these kinds of things will be factored back into our manpower sizing and our training rates. So I'm expecting to see improvements through this year as well, which will also factor into the labor line.

[Kathryn B. McQuade:]

And just another thing to keep in mind with the guidance I gave on stock-based compensation, about $1 increase in stock price is about $1 million in additional expense as well. So that's something to keep in mind.

[Operator:]

Your next question comes from the line of Matt Troy with Susquehanna Financial.

[Matthew Troy:]

You had gone to great lengths in details on the productivity initiatives or service investments, cost investments, to make sure that this winter did not have a substantial impact in your service capability. In line of what's been a relatively milder start to winter -- I mean we're almost in February. Is there an opportunity near-term to scale back some of that resource investment to have a beneficial impact on margin sooner than what we would have expected had it been more snowy and cold?

[Frederic J. Green:]

So Matt, it's Fred. I want to stress that what we said we would do in this quarter was to ensure that we were delivering a first-class product, and I'm really delighted with what Mike and his team have done. We were and are sized to deal with any difficulties that might come our way, including such things as a week of minus 40 at night and minus 30 in the day, which we've just come through and come through very well. And we've also sized ourselves to have some upside opportunity. And there are some circumstances to be available to us than we have taken some of those resources and apply them to seize the moment in that upside opportunity that we're seizing. So the phrase that I used at the time and I standby is that we will deliver improved service, we will deliver fluidity and asset improvement. And when we have done that both to our own satisfaction, which drives our cost down and to our customer satisfaction that gives them consistent, sustained reliable service, we will recalibrate resources. But we're not going to get ahead of ourselves and do that. So the answer is yes, we will, but we will do it in a thoughtful way and consistent with the quality of the product and the reducing costs as a result of having the right level of resources in place.

[Operator:]

Your next question comes from the line of Jason Seidl with Dahlman Rose.

[Jason H. Seidl:]

One question for Jane, the other question for Kathryn. Jane, you mentioned that, obviously, there are some uncertainty around potash fertilizer for 2012 and to expect sort of relatively flat volume type numbers. Could you -- does that mean we're going to expect maybe negative in the first half of the year, maybe growing to positive throughout? And then, what does it look like over the longer term, not only the recent contract that you signed with Canpotex, but maybe some of the non-Canpotex players that are going to be coming in over the next few years?

[Jane A. O’Hagan:]

Yes, I would start off by answering your first question. While we did indicate that there is certainly inventory and a significant inventory that's positioned at this point in time, we are modeling that 2012 is going to look a lot like 2011. So we expect that the demand will continue to progress as the year moves along because we believe the fundamentals in the potash world continue to be strong. With respect to modeling and talking about certainly the Canpotex agreement and growth, again, the share does depend on the mix between Vancouver and Portland. And so as you're thinking about your modeling, if you'd model just a little over 80% on that projected volume, that will give you an idea of where we are with growth and as the market progresses.

[Jason H. Seidl:]

Okay. And Kathryn, in your expenses, when you go through them, you noted there was a $6 million year-over-year differential in adviser expense. Could you talk about what that was? And do we expect that number to continue to creep up?

[Kathryn B. McQuade:]

Well, we really didn't ask for these types of onetime expenses, but we're going to do what's necessary to ensure that our shareholders have all the information they need to understand the state of our business and our multi-year plan and how it will create long-term value for our shareholders. So they are going to continue, at least into the first quarter.

[Operator:]

Your next question comes from the line of David Newman with Cormark Securities.

[David F. Newman:]

Just on the pension again, not to beat a dead horse, but there's been some discussion -- there's a lot of companies in sort of the same position -- that the government might provide some relief at some point here, especially now we've got a reiteration that we're going to be keeping the rates relatively low for quite a period of time. And I guess the second part of that is, you've got some big contract renewals for the labor front that come in the next few years. Is there any opportunity at all that kind of look at, maybe a DC or an amended hybrid DC plan, as long -- as well as getting maybe greater labor flexibility that match your productivity improvements?

[Kathryn B. McQuade:]

Yes. So to your first part of the question, then I'll turn that over to Fred for the second part. We're actually leading some advocacy with the government. As everybody knows, the low interest rate environment is actually a function of the economy to stimulate investment, and actually it's very negative for businesses with DB plants because it's forcing additional funding into that and the inability to invest in growth capital or really things that help stimulate the environment, the economy in total. So we are in discussions -- I think we are talking with the minister and trying to advocate for some relief over the longer term, and we are doing that with another group of about 6 other major companies as well. So stay tuned. It would be nice if we could get some help and relief in this area. And I think it's what's best for the economy and what's best for the country as well.

[David F. Newman:]

Any initial thoughts on what your position is? Would you like to have sort of like a 10-year amortization? Is that what your -- the goal is? Maybe spread it out a little bit more through cycle?

[Kathryn B. McQuade:]

Well, we're looking at various different things that the minister would consider. So it's a lot of details, but what we would best like to see is temporary relief from certain things that would allow us to move through this unusually low, historically low interest rate environment.

[Frederic J. Green:]

So David, let me pick up on the second point. I think it's public knowledge because the other parties released it way back in -- I think it was in September that we have approached, in this round of negotiations, our unions that we're dealing with. Now I would note we deal with 39 different union agreements. But in that discussion, we have certainly engaged with the other parties to make sure that there's a deep and comprehensive understanding of both the legacy pension. I mean this is something that's been around with agreements that are applying from the '70s and '80s, that is now coming home to roost, and it's important that we fully educate each other. And with that, I am hopeful that we'll find a resolve that will address the obviously very substantive pension headwinds that this company faces. And if we do that and do that well in the collaborative way, we'll all be winners, and that's our objective.

[Janet Weiss:]

So it's Janet, and I know today's participants have pretty busy schedules. So we're going to take 2 more calls and then if there's any outstanding questions, we'll be more than happy to handle them offline.

[Operator:]

Our next question comes from the line of Walter Spracklin with RBC Capital Markets.

[Walter Spracklin:]

I guess, my first question is on the share gains that you've -- you saw go the other way with the service structures from earlier this year, or last year. Curious as to what traction that you've made -- I know Mike has done a great job on the service side. Jane, you said you're hearing your customers come back or hearing your customers speak positively on it. Understand you didn't lose contracts, but I think your customers' customers did move on different routes away from CP during that time. How confident are you that you're starting -- that you will be getting some of that market share back? And have you seen early signs of it?

[Jane A. O’Hagan:]

Yes, why so don't I just start with one of the first wins for -- right out of the gate? I think that when we look at grain and we think about our year-over-year and where we are today. Again, one of the clear things that we said that we would do is that we would position with our new scheduled grain service, a product and earn back our market share. And as a result of that, we've seen record crop year-to-date, carloads of 10% of our best year in '06 and '07. Again, this is based on our excellent service reliability, our supply chain collaboration in all of the things that we've done in that market. I think that if you also look at our merchandise portfolio and you look at where we are with respect to our growth on the energy side, that growth, given the quality of the service that we have in place, has certainly on the energy side been faster than anticipated. And again based on the quality of that product, we expect more in that area as well. Certainly, with respect to Intermodal, our focus is clearly to do exactly what we did with respect to grain. Again, our domestic share is looking good. We're back in that area, as I said before. We have 100% of our key lines and their key lanes are back. And again, our focus in this regard is to continue to build on that consistency of service. And as we see that service consistency maintained, we're going to expect a steady increase in our volumes.

[Walter Spracklin:]

Okay, that's great color. Appreciate that. And just a housekeeping, you mentioned a split -- or your price and mix, could you split the 2 up there?

[Jane A. O’Hagan:]

On the price side, on price and mix, we were talking about 5% and with our price and mix being positive.

[Operator:]

And your last question comes from the line of Tom Wadewitz with JPMorgan.

[Thomas R. Wadewitz:]

Wanted to see if we could get some comments in terms of just a little more granular on where you were at with average train lengths in 2011, at full year or fourth quarter in coal, potash and in Intermodal. And what you think that can go to in 2012. If you could give us more numbers to think about that, that would be helpful.

[J. Michael Franczak:]

Okay, Tom, I'll talk to that. Through 2012, I think if you take a look at the coal trains, for example, we'll be ramping up from the 8 sets I noted earlier into the upper teens as we bring on the other siding projects or infrastructure projects that we spoke to. We are at our 170 numbers right now for the potash trains, so we will continue to run those and ramp up a little bit there further. As well as our Intermodal trains, we'll continue to ramp up. And Tom, I would refer you back to the slides that we shared with you in Investor Day that showed how we were ramping up each train series over the coming year or 2, as we brought on the different infrastructure projects, and we can get those back to you.

[Frederic J. Green:]

And Tom, it's Fred. I would just add to that, that although the deep cold has obviously shortened a few trains in the last week or so, we're back, in fact, to normal now. But success is not just dealing with the bulk trains and the Intermodal trains, but to the extent that Jane continues to have success based on the great quality of product, Mike's merchandise trains will also expand over the course of time. The secret for us is asset utilization, it's fluidity. We need to keep things moving. So we're not driven, at this point, exclusively by train length. We're driven by miles per car day and by keeping those assets moving into service levels very, very high.

[Thomas R. Wadewitz:]

Do you reach the target levels in 2012 for those 3 segments? Or is there still some waiting for some of the CapEx to come in?

[J. Michael Franczak:]

No, there'll be more to come after that, Tom, right through '13 as well.

[Operator:]

Mr. Green, there are no further questions at this time. Please continue.

[Frederic J. Green:]

Okay, well, thank you all for your time and your interest in Canadian Pacific. Our multi-year plan with this, we think and believe we are confident that we are going to take the right steps in the operational excellence and to deliver financial results. We appreciate the strong support we've received from customers, from shareholders, employees and other stakeholders of Canadian Pacific, and we'll continue to deliver on our objectives. And we look forward to providing progress report on our next quarterly conference call.

[J. Michael Franczak:]

Thanks very much.

[Operator:]

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.