Calavo Growers, Inc.
Q4 2020 Earnings Call Transcript

Published: 21 Dec 2020

[Operator:]

Greetings, and welcome to Calavo Growers Incorporated Fourth Quarter 2020 Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the former presentation. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Lisa Mueller. Thank you, Lisa. You may begin.

[Lisa Mueller:]

Thank you, operator, and thank you all for joining us today to discuss Calavo Growers fourth quarter 2020 financial results. This afternoon, we issued our earnings release and this document is available in the Investor Relations section of our website at ir.calavo.com.

[Jim Gibson:]

Thank you, Lisa. Good afternoon, everyone. We welcome the opportunity to speak to you today and hope you and your families continue to be healthy and safe. The fourth quarter played out similar to the trends we saw in the third quarter. Avocado volumes continued to expand, reflecting heavy demand and rising popularity across the country. Even so, there was ample supply to meet that demand. Mexico had larger harvest this year, and there was no supply restrictions as we experienced last year. California and Peru also had strong growing seasons, which led to a 22% price contraction compared to last year. Our supply chain remains strong with very low incidence of disruption due to the pandemic. We continue to optimize our supply chain by knowing what our customers want in managing their preferences at the source. Our team is very skilled in matching sizes and grades to customer profiles, which is the delicate balance achieved through decades of experience. In the RFG and Food segments, volume was lower due to the closure of our Midwest co-packer earlier this year, as well as the challenging demand environment in our wholesale and foodservice channels due to the pandemic. While COVID-19 continued to have a negative impact on our business, we remain focused on the things that we can control, including steps to improve processes, innovation, efficiency across our organization. For example, RFG has a strong reputation for its solutions-based approach to serving customers. When demand dropped for grab-and-go products, a high-value category for our customers, our team shifted to meet the rising demand for fast and easy meals at home. We adapted to provide meal solutions such as family sized green salads, vegetable side dishes, and deli service items sold in single-serve configuration to drive sales where deli counters and self-service bars are now closed.

[Kevin Manion:]

Thank you, Jim, and good afternoon from global world headquarters in Phoenix, Santa Paula, California. I'll start by discussing our financial results for the fourth quarter, followed by our balance sheet and outlook.

[Operator:]

Thank you. We will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. Thank you. Our first question comes from Ben Bienvenu with Stephens. Please proceed with your question.

[Ben Bienvenu:]

Hey, good evening, everybody.

[Jim Gibson:]

Hi, Ben.

[Ben Bienvenu:]

I want to ask, Kevin, you made some comments, and you provided detail on the press release as well about the Mexico crop still being abundant as we head into fiscal 2021. Can you elaborate a little bit on what you can tell now in terms of overall crop, I know will still be sourcing primarily from Mexico until at least kind of early summer of next year? But what does California look like as far as you can tell into next summer? And is there any reason to be hopeful that we might see some convergence of kind of return to normal demand patterns at the same time, as we see maybe a transition into a slightly less abundant crop or is that wishful thinking?

[Kevin Manion:]

Hi, Ben. Yes, absolutely. I think what we're seeing is that the crop out of Mexico, certainly in this bloom is very strong. As we look in -- and we've seen probably annually, we've seen estimates between the probably 8% to 10% all the way up to 20% in growth, we believe that we're more on the 8% to 10% range, and we are looking at the second bloom that is going to come off in that kind of like February, March area, which we believe may be a little bit less strong than we're currently experiencing right now. Yes. And on the demand side, I think, as long as we're operating in the pandemic, and certainly, we know right now that foodservice and the extension out to the restaurant trade is just suffering immensely in this environment. And so until we get some relief from that regard, I think we're going to continue to operate on that side of the world in the same way. On the retail side, I think, retail is moving to increase while not, we would say, promoting very hard, but we are certainly seeing an increase in volume as we're moving through the month -- from month-to-month, so to speak.

[Ben Bienvenu:]

Okay. Thank for that. And is it too early to tell what California looks like for the summer?

[Jim Gibson:]

No, I'm sorry, that's absolutely.

[Ben Bienvenu:]

Yes. Sure, sure.

[Jim Gibson:]

Yes, absolutely. Sorry, I missed that second part of the question there. Yes, I think California is -- if you follow us, it's the -- kind of like the alternate year scenario. It's going to be a bit of a lighter crop. We're seeing probably in the maybe 10% less range than 2020. And then we also -- just in this time of year, while we're waiting for the seasons to change and hopefully, rain to come in, we can experience some wins that are counter to the cropping. So they could have -- they could be influenced from that regard if they get some fruit drop or anything like that, but I think it's going to be -- it will still be a good solid crop. It will just be maybe 90% of what we saw last year.

[Ben Bienvenu:]

All right, great. Switching gears a little bit to RFG. You noted the overall revenue change, but you noted the revenue change up 3% ex-Midwest facility impact. Yes, I know that you guys had some new distribution center in Georgia. What else are you guys doing and seeing that's exciting because I know there's obviously headwinds that exist as a result of COVID that are transitory in nature, what are you seeing in the midst of this environment that you're pleased with as you look to grow that business as we head out of COVID?

[Jim Gibson:]

Right. I think we mentioned it a little bit in the presentation, but those are still fairly young plants that we're talking about, specifically in Atlanta and over in Portland. And what we're seeing, what we're really excited about is the operating efficiency that those two plants are really coming into fold with. I think we've got quite a bit of learning from the openings of Riverside and Florida over the last several years, and those plants are executing very well. So, I think what we're looking for in 2021 is that the full extent of those operations, meaning the six Renaissance facilities are going to begin to perform at a higher level as those younger plants begin to lift the average margin up associated.

[Ben Bienvenu:]

Okay. And last quick one for me. You gave the 1Q guidance on revenue. I know a big portion of that will be just absolute price decline in avocados. Any additional color you can offer across the other segments that we should be mindful of as we think about modeling out into next year?

[Jim Gibson:]

Sure. As Kevin was mentioning…

[Ben Bienvenu:]

Just like the 1Q, sorry, I should have said it more clearly.

[Jim Gibson:]

Right. As the – as Kevin was mentioning, I think, we've got a lot of initiatives, both in Renaissance and in Foods. I think, as a result of pandemic and just the nature of Fresh food, there's a lot of innovation in play. And I think we're getting good foothold on innovation and on new channels to market in that segment. And so, we're looking for that to play out into the -- in first quarter, maybe into the second quarter. On the Food side, it's similar. And I think I've mentioned this a little bit before is that we're seeing maybe in substitution for the standard foodservice type products, we're seeing really nice initiatives on industrial type products that are going out as ingredients for other finished goods. And then even in the U.S., on the industrial side, selling foodservice type products to the industrial marketplace.

[Ben Bienvenu:]

Okay. Thanks and best of luck, guys.

[Jim Gibson:]

Thank you.

[Kevin Manion:]

Thanks, Ben.

[Operator:]

Thank you. Our next question comes from Rob Dickerson with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.

[Rob Dickerson:]

Great. Thanks a lot. So I guess I just have two questions. First question is just on the volume side. Obviously, volumes were up, which is always positive, but pricing was down a lot, as you've said, for a number of different reasons. So I'm just kind of curious, I guess, maybe for you, Jim, you've been in the business a long time. Depending on categories in food, U.S. statistics can be different. Prices go down, volumes can go up and the prices go back up, volumes can go down. So I'm just curious if you think through next year or more broadly, on the next three, five years, right? If we're kind of reaching, let's say, a more normalized pricing environment at some point, right, which is contingent on the supply and the crop, what have you. Do you kind of feel just -- this is just in the Fresh segment, so like the opportunity for volumes to continue to go up is obviously still there? Maybe it's more international relative to the U.S. if prices go up, right, because the prices are -- and I'm just asking this because I'm just thinking prices you're down 20% in some categories, and you would say, "Oh, wow, look, they're a lot cheaper. I'm going to go out and buy 10% more avocados", you got 3% more. So I'm curious if the prices go up, would you think that buying rates go down or I mean, it seems like consumers just really like avocados, and they're going to continue to buy? So you're almost price inelastic on the volume side? Can may just kind of talk about that a little bit, that would be great? Thanks.

[Jim Gibson:]

Yes, for sure, Rob. I think the other piece of this on the demand side is that there is the expectation that food service is going to come back for us. And then as we talked before, is that when Calavo is out buying avocados, they're buying the full spectrum of sizes and grades that come off the trees. And so as we do that, we're looking to marry those sizes and grades up with the appropriate customers. And certainly, food service plays a big role in maintain margin in that regard because a lot of that product, either excess product at a certain size or in the number two grade configuration because they're not looking for the fruit they're going to sell at the retail level. We have really nice outlets for it. And so as that matrix kind of plays out when it's really balanced well, it allows for good retained margin and obviously good volume growth. Our expectation is that, yes, we are going to find our way back to the pre-pandemic U.S. marketplace that is continuing in lockstep to increase in volume as we go forward.

[Rob Dickerson:]

Okay, great. And then I guess just on your comments around selling a little bit of some excess supply into Europe and then obviously, the opportunity in Asia is still there. I'm not sure, frankly, because I see my ignorance. I'm not sure if you've really sold into Europe previously or in any material way. So I'm just curious, kind of absent the discussion. On the Asian opportunity, have you learned anything in the past few months, just regarding selling into Europe and maybe Europe actually becomes another driver of growth over the long run? And that's it, thanks a lot.

[Jim Gibson:]

Yes. Sure, Rob. Yes, I think the big thing for us is that we realize that we've got a build some infrastructure into the thought process of selling into Europe as an example. And so, the idea of finding the right partners in the European theater of getting some -- from our perspective, some boots on the ground that belong to Calavo and begin to evolve that process. So certainly, it's not going to be a light switch, but it is an initiative that Calavo is very interested in developing, and we think that the opportunity is certainly there.

[Operator:]

Our next question comes from Mark Smith with Lake Street Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

[Mark Smith:]

I just want to touch a little bit on kind of demand trends a little bit. Can you talk about food service trends that you saw during the quarter with maybe some reopening during the quarter? And then, what we've seen as far as maybe more shutdowns today during Q1?

[Jim Gibson:]

Right. So, if we're looking at food service in our world, and this would be both -- we'll talk about both the fresh and the food side of things is that, there's kind of like three different sections. One is the is wholesale, which is the restaurant trade. And obviously, we know that, that's been debilitated by the ongoing shutdowns and things like that. And that's ongoing into the -- it feels like into the first quarter of the year. The next piece is the QSR type channel, and we're seeing that one kind of coming back to a degree as certainly that channel figures out how to service customers in this environment. So as we're looking into the new year, we're expecting that we're going to continue to grow in that arena. And then the other one, which is very strong on the fresh side of things is the likes of a chipotle, which early on in the pandemic really was successful at figuring out the way to connect with their customers, and we're a big supplier and supporter of their efforts. And so those three areas are where we're operating, we think two of three are coming back nicely; and the third is going to be dependent on the end of the pandemic, I'm afraid.

[Mark Smith:]

Did you see much volatility, I guess, during the quarter within that? Did you see some maybe signs of life before we enter more shutdowns later in the fall in the winter?

[Jim Gibson:]

Yes. I would say on the restaurant side, maybe a little bit, but hardly measurable, to be honest, as there if you were following, they were up and down and trying to figure out where they could be in the process. And so, we really didn't feel a whole lot on the wholesale side, but certainly in the other two.

[Mark Smith:]

Okay. And then similar question, just as we look at customer trends within grocery stores as we look at kind of fresh versus package, what have you seen as far as evolution from customers and what they're looking forward, and if they're hanging out more at the kind of outside of the store more in a fresh or if they continue to move more towards kind of the enters around more packaged goods?

[Jim Gibson:]

Right. I think early on, we talked about it, and we -- we're waiting to see, we may feel it again, but early on, there was a movement towards the middle of the store when people were just trying to figure out what the extent of the pandemic was going to look like and how to spend their dollars, but over time, we've seen the customer base move back out to the exterior of the stores to begin to buy produce and deli products again. The next piece of that, though, is that the concept of grab-and-go was challenged as customers move to the remote position, they were cooking more in-house and not going out and buying a sandwich, while they're at work and bringing it back to the office, that sort of thing. So a lot of the Renaissance efforts were to were to innovate and support our customers so there was rationalization of products and then additions of new products in support of the way that people are cooking and eating food at home during the pandemic. And then probably the last piece is shopping habits, is that probably over the last several years in the United States, there was almost the daily drumbeat. People were going to grocery store quite often during the week. And as the pandemic kind of took hold, the shopping habits changed, and that was a movement towards maybe only one or two times during the week with a grocery lift to get in and out of the grocery store. And so one of the things that Calavo is moving very quickly to do on the Fresh side was to get to a bad configuration on avocados, where instead of selling individual avocado, we were also selling heavily in like4 or five avocados in a bag so that an individual, as they shopped, would just be able to pick up the bag, not have to touch a lot of the product and put it in the shopping cart and keep moving. And so, we saw pretty dramatic growth in that type product.

[Mark Smith:]

Okay, great. And then the last one for me, just kind of modeling question. As we look at tax rate, it's kind of been all over the place and barring any big changes in statutory rates, is there -- what would you expect for a reported tax rate going forward here?

[Kevin Manion:]

We've got our reconciliation in the middle of the K there for you on Page 71, but I think there's a few enterprise zone credits that we've had to put on valuation allowances for, so that's probably the only significant permanent difference that you're going to get. So that's probably worth 1 to 1.5 points for us on a favorable side.

[Operator:]

Thank you. Our last question comes from Mitch Pinheiro with Sturdivant and Co. Please proceed with your question.

[Mitchell Pinheiro:]

So when I'm looking at -- if you start looking at the Fresh side and you start comparing, you're starting to get easier price comparisons as year-over-year. I mean, clearly, your fourth quarter had some very tough comparisons in September, October, but they're starting to moderate. Is that what you see? Or is it just something that you don't want to try and predict?

[Kevin Manion:]

Yes, I think what we want to do is specifically is give you a first quarter view, and let's see how the rest of the world works its way out to the pandemic.

[Mitchell Pinheiro:]

But I mean even right now, so in December, and I'm looking year-over-year, instead of being down in the 20% area, I'm seeing prices down, call it, high single digits. Is that not what you're saying or not what you expect to continue? You would think pricing could worsen a little bit here as we enter January, February?

[Kevin Manion:]

Well, I think as we talked, the supply side is going to grow, particularly from Mexico, anywhere from 8% to 10%, some people have even quoted 20%. So that's a pretty substantial increase in supply. And so, I think it would be fair enough to say that, that would put downward pressure on selling prices, which would probably then have a knock-on effect to margins.

[Mitchell Pinheiro:]

Okay. And then second, when you talk about Calavo Foods and the new channels, what kind of new channels are you referring to that you can share?

[Jim Gibson:]

Right. When we're talking about -- on the Food side, this is a little bit of the answer I was giving from an earlier question, is that there's a couple of very good channels for us that are also very nice substitutions on the food service side of the world. So the food service product set is generally more of a bulk pack avocado pulp type product, so our channels to market with that going international, where it's sold in and then used as an ingredient going into something else. And then even in the U.S., we sell a similar product, and we're seeing opportunities there where we can sell that bulk type product and sell it on the industrial side to other manufacturers that would use it as an ingredient as well for their finished product.

[Mitchell Pinheiro:]

Okay. Moving on, just two quick questions here, RFG, so you were up 3%, excluding the co-packing comparison, what -- in that 3%, what was the strongest growth, and what was still lagging year-over-year?

[Kevin Manion:]

Well, so kind of Renaissance sells in three manufacturing areas

[Mitchell Pinheiro:]

Are they margin-enhancing, margin-neutral when you make the switch?

[Kevin Manion:]

I would say in this environment, there they're more margin neutral. They're literally substitutions and using pretty much the same product set ingredient base to achieve them.

[Mitchell Pinheiro:]

Okay. And then final question is just what are you -- your CapEx plans? What are they for fiscal '21?

[Jim Gibson:]

So we've got a lot of -- we've got infrastructure going into Mexico in support of the supply chain. So looking to optimize our packing house in Uruapan, and then on both the Foods and the Renaissance side, a lot of our efforts are in to optimization of labor efficiencies and materials.

[Kevin Manion:]

So again, most of it will be certainly in margin enhancement type activities, total dollars will probably be about the same as they were last year.

[Mitchell Pinheiro:]

Thank you very much.

[Operator:]

There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the call back to Jim Gibson for any closing comments.

[Jim Gibson:]

Okay. In closing, we believe our fourth quarter results do not reflect our true potential in a more normalized environment. While there will always be uncontrollable factors that influence our results, the pandemic certainly tested our entire organization. Our team not only rose to the new challenges, they also built stronger connections with our customers as we work together to find innovative solutions that will enhance our reputation as valued strategic partner for years to come. We're excited about our strategic initiatives, and we believe we will even be in a better position to compete and succeed in 2021. We wish everyone a very safe and happy holiday season and a prosperous and much anticipated new year. Thank you for joining us today.

[Operator:]

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation, and have a wonderful evening.