Hess Midstream LP
Q1 2020 Earnings Call Transcript

Published: 10 May 2020

[Operator:]

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the First Quarter 2020 Hess Midstream Conference Call. My name is Lawrence, and I'll be your operator for today. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. I would now like to turn the conference over to Jennifer Gordon, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please proceed.

[Jennifer Gordon:]

Thank you, Lawrence. Good afternoon everyone, and thank you for participating in our first quarter earnings conference call. Our earnings release was issued this morning and appears on our website www.hessmidstream.com. I would first like to express our hope that all of you listening and your families our safe and well. Today's conference call contains projections and other forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These statements are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ from those expressed or implied in such statements. These risks include those set forth in the Risk Factor section of Hess Midstream's filings with the SEC.

[John Gatling:]

Thanks, Jennifer. Good afternoon everyone and welcome to Hess Midstream's first quarter 2020 conference call. I hope everyone is safe, well and healthy during these exceptionally challenging times. Today, I'll review our operating performance and highlights as we continue to execute our strategy provide additional details regarding our 2020 plans and discuss Hess Corporation's latest results and outlook for the Bakken. Jonathan will then review our financial results. First, I'd like to describe the actions Hess Corporation and Hess Midstream are taking to protect the health and safety of our workforce and assure business continuity in the midst of the global pandemic. A cross-functional response team have been implementing a variety of health and safety measures in consultation with suppliers and partners that are based on current recommendations by our public health agencies and consistent with government and regulatory directives. This includes travel restrictions, health screenings, enhanced cleaning protocols and physical distance initiatives such as remote working and minimizing the number of personnel on worksites whenever possible. As a result of these measures Hess Corporation and Hess Midstream have no reported cases of COVID-19 among employees.

[Jonathan Stein:]

Thanks, John, and good afternoon everyone. Hess Midstream continues to be differentiated, based on our strong contract structure and the proactive steps that we have taken providing visibility and stability to our forward trajectory through 2022 even during this period of significant uncertainty. Well, John has described recent third party curtailment and Hess's reduction of activity from 6-rigs to 1-rig our contract structure and financial strength, provide a unique level of stability. Our updated guidance, supported by downside protection and cash flow stability mechanisms in our contract still delivers our financial target including approximately 25% EBITDA growth in 2020 and 2021 as well as $750 million of free cash flow defined as EBITDA, less CapEx in both 2021 and 2022 sufficient to be free cash flow positive after growing distribution. As a reminder, our contract structure include the unique combination of Minimum Volume Commitments or MVCs and an annual rate redetermination mechanism that adjusted rates based on changes in volume and CapEx to maintain a return on our invested capital. Including our approximately $4 billion of historical investment.

[Operator:]

Your first question comes from the line of Spiro Dounis from Credit Suisse. Your line is open; you may ask your question.

[Spiro Dounis:]

Hey, good afternoon guys. Just like to start off, high level thinking about basin diversification and where your latest thinking is there? I'm sure it's tempting to sit back at this point collect on your MVCs, but don't see you guys taking that path. So just walk us through your thinking about diversifying -- maybe away from the Bakken? And then strategically pivoting the company, when is the right time to take that action?

[John Gatling:]

Sure. I guess just to start off, we just want to reinforce the Bakken position we have and the relationship with Hess. Again as you mentioned, we think the strength of our anchor customer and the contract structure we have in place is absolutely key and critical. And I would say at this time, we're really kind of focused on continuing to strengthen our position in the Bakken and support Hess and third parties. So continuing to build on that position. As we've said in prior calls, we are continuing to look at other options. But right now we really are focused on the Bakken and focused on taking care of Hess and the third parties in the basin. Again, if we'll look at opportunities, but our focus at this point is really the Bakken and Hess.

[Spiro Dounis:]

Understood. And then thinking about next year, obviously pretty locked in at this point. I don't see a lot of variability there. But does have sort of asymmetric upside and we think about your contract structure. And I guess rather than count on volumes just sort drive that higher, thinking about two other factors that could maybe do it. I guess one is cost, and the other one is CapEx. And so curious on those two. How much room is there for you guys to get leaner here on the OpEx side? And to the extent that has does throughout that rig, obviously your topline stays the same, but that actually end up lowering your CapEx below that $100 million number next year and actually drive free cash flow higher.

[John Gatling:]

Yes, I guess I'll start off with the operational side of it and then hand it over to Jonathan for any additional color he'd like to add. But we, as Hess has always been and I think Hess Midstream is continue to discuss this as well as we are a lean-oriented organization, and so we're constantly looking for opportunities to drive cost out of the system, and that happens every day and it's going to continue to happen and it's an absolute focus for us as we progress over the next several years. And I would say that holds true on OpEx and CapEx. So we're constantly looking and rationalizing our capital spend, optimizing that looking for efficiencies and in particular in a market where may be potentially some supply chain opportunities to go after as well. So, I think we're walking -- we're working up and down the value chain and work with our suppliers, working with the, our customers in the basin and looking for ways to optimize OpEx and CapEx opportunities. So I think it's a good point and it's definitely something we're focused on, and we're constantly looking to drive costs out of our system and continue to get more efficient in everything we do. So, Jonathan, anything you want to add to that?

[Jonathan Stein:]

Yes, thanks. In terms of looking I think looking at the assumptions that are in our forecast and the likes. So I think starting on the capital side, so there what we've talked about is with the proactive capital reductions that we made earlier that brings us to -- kind sustaining capital of approximately $100 million of -- on the expansion capital side, not really just include third party and half interconnects and as I mentioned, and John mentioned. So we think that's about the level that would be required. There'll be some fluctuations there plus or minus depending on particularly third-party side in or out and depending on how that goes but essentially, think of a $100 million that CapEx. We do have on top of that I get sustaining capital, you'd add maintenance capital. We do have $20 million in this year, that maybe a little bit higher than normal because of the TGP turn around. You could see that being a little bit lower next year, but that would be step one. And then step two would be; you mentioned on OpEx side, so of course our contract -- also does include consideration of OpEx when we set the tariff so to the extent that we maintain everything would be the same. Our OpEx is generally fixed. We don't see much sensitivity to changes in volume but particularly to this year, even more so with the turnaround in the plan. So next year, as we look at 2021 the turnaround will be behind us. So that is part of the driver of the 25% increase in EBITDA, is that also depending on I think on a relative basis, you could see some changes there. And as John said, we're continuing to work -- announced that they are looking at cost reductions. We're working side-by-side with them and that could potentially lead to some additional OpEx reduction including particularly allocations that come through the half. As of right now we have not incorporated any of those, any assumptions about reduction as part of that process in the midpoint of our guidance. So that could be potential upside. But I think it's still early days on that and so more to come.

[Spiro Dounis:]

Great. Very helpful.

[John Gatling:]

May be just one other comment just on the CapEx. And just a reminder that the bulk of our backbone system is in place. So really when we're talking about that sustaining capital we're talking about potential interconnects to the specific well pads and third party customers and all that. But the major infrastructure is already built out in place.

[Spiro Dounis:]

Thanks for the color, guys. Be well.

[John Gatling:]

Thank you.

[Operator:]

Your next question comes from the line of Phil Stuart from Scotiabank. Your line is open; you may ask your question.

[Phil Stuart:]

Good morning, everyone. Congrats on the solid update.

[John Gatling:]

Thank you.

[Phil Stuart:]

I wonder as we think about the third-party curtailments, I appreciate you guys providing the downside case scenario really helpful and pretty conservative on year-end. But it seems like these third-party curtailments are going to be temporary. Just kind of curious, your view of, I guess based on the current strip of when some of these curtailed volumes would come back online. I understand that you guys Hess is not the operator there, but just curious from a macro standpoint when you see third-party volumes potentially coming online? What oil price kind of triggers that? Or if the current strip would justify that on -- in your eyes?

[John Gatling:]

Yes, know it's a good question. I guess it's a difficult one to answer because as you mentioned, I mean, each of the non-ops have there kind of own scenarios where if it got hedging or pricing or marketing arrangements in place. The one thing I would say that's a real positive is this production is behind pipe already, right. I mean, we had an amazing first quarter in fact; arguably the first quarter is the best quarter we've ever delivered. It's just unfortunate the market that we're in and the kind of scenario that's played out over the last couple of months, but we had a very, very strong, a very, very strong quarter and that was driven by Hess and third-parties. And I would say Hess curtailments and wells in those well pads are interconnected into our system. And so as those producers bringing the activity back and actually whether they've shut-in production direct existing proved developed production or they're going to drill additional wells. The infrastructure is in place to support that and that's really one of the key reasons why we are continuing to head down the path with the Tioga gas plant expansion. In north of the river we really see ourselves kind of as an unequal midstream provider in north of the Missouri River. There really is limited processing capacity there, and kind of sit there with the key asset that can support both Hess and third-party producers. So I would say we're definitely positioned to capitalize on when third parties brings mines back into the system or they end up re-initiating drilling program. It's really going to depend on the price environment, and that's part of the reason why we went with a more conservative look. We don't anticipate the low end of our range being kind of the expected outcome, but at the same time, we felt like we wanted to add that level of certainty around the low end, in particular demonstrating the strength of our contract structure with Hess. In DC mechanism the contract recalculation process and all of that really, really kind of supports. So, Jonathan -- is there anything else you'd like to add?

[Jonathan Stein:]

Yes. Yes, no thanks. I mean what I just maybe add, maybe just what's the other side of the coin does so well clear that, like you said, potential upside to the extent that there is third-parties, but and we're ready to handle that like John said, but if you look now just you know starting really Q3 and Q4, and really going through 2022, we're really going to be running out of -- we see levels. And that's really going to be the driver, of course lower volume this year will contribute to the rate redetermination at the end of 2020 and that supports the 25% increase in EBITDA into 2021. So, if you think about what happened we originally had thought post the ramp down that has announced in rig activity we expected that we would be added below MVCs in Q4. What's really happened is with the significant curtailment we're really hitting that level now in Q2. And that means that will really be now MVC protected including the growth because of the way because of the rate redetermination in to 2021 at 25% really for the next 2.5 years from Q3 2020 all the way through 2022, and that really just says that really just protect us and really gives us that level of financial protection over that period, while commodity prices, have the potential to stabilize, that's very similar to what we saw back in 2015 and 2016 where went after the period of stabilization again, we had about 2.5 years to 3 years of financial protection and at the end of that period, we has -- to ramp up along with third part of driving growth again. So we are in that same scenario now, 2.5 years of finance protection allowing commodity prices to stabilize in all along the way, while we're waiting we have differentiated visibility and stability during this time

[Phil Stuart:]

Great. I appreciate the details there. And I wonder as we think about kind of corporate strategy going forward, given that you all are unique in your visibility to cash flows over the next 2.5 years, as you mentioned. Just curious on the M&A front, do you think that provides you a better advantage to maybe pick off one-off assets within the Bakken? And then maybe a second part to that question another asset that had been potentially contemplate it for a dropdown was the Hess Gulf of Mexico infrastructure assets? Just wondering with Hess's comments today about can slowing activity in the Gulf of Mexico based on kind of the current strip if that pushes out that potential dropdown opportunity further to the right?

[John Gatling:]

Sure, so yes. Let me just start with your first part of your question on the Bakken. Again, I think we're really kind of in a looking at, focusing on Hess and our third party customers as existing Hess production and third party customers and also supporting the development of both of those, but we are always looking for of those strategic bolt-on opportunities that just are no brainers as far as adding additional capability to our system. From our perspective, we see those is extremely low risk. They would integrate very nicely into our contract structure provide the same sort of downside protection in those opportunities to kind of pick up those . So we were absolutely looking at those things. I would say that they're going to be probably on the smaller side, there is not going to be anything major that we're going after, because again, we're really focused on the strength of our position, but also continuing to build on that strength. So I think again, we're focused on what we have. But if we're also opportunistic and if something kind of comes up that makes a ton of sense for us and help support our customers both Hess and our third party customers we'll absolutely consider those opportunities. And then the second part of your question on the Gulf of Mexico. Yes, we're absolutely continuing, I mean if -- that's one real benefit that we have is the relationship that we have with Hess, and we're continuing to evaluate the Gulf of Mexico assets. Even though the Gulf of Mexico activity has slowed down, there is still substantial production there. There's 65,000 barrels of oil available there. There is water injection, there's infrastructure in place from that. So that's absolutely something that's on our radar screen and something that we're looking at in our partnership with Hess to continue to build on that. So we do see that as an opportunity for further potential growth. And again, the nice thing about those assets similar to what we have in the Bakken is they would follow the same sort of contract structure model, it may be slightly different because there'll be different assets, but the downside protection that we would be looking for and kind of our philosophy around the contract structure would absolutely apply. And again, I think we've demonstrated that's a focus for us as we did with the water acquisition that we did as well that provide the same sort of the downside protection. So Hess, Gulf of Mexico assets would probably fall into that category as well. So, Jonathan, anything else you'd like to add?

[Jonathan Stein:]

Yes, I mean I think that. I think one thing that sort of underpinning this question and maybe previous question is look going into, -- we're in a very unique and differentiated position where we're going to have, $750 million of free cash flow, starting next year, more than enough to fund our distribution, therefore really decreasing debt without absent any other plans. So, really giving us just continuing relative into our 3 times already conservative leverage target. So really just giving us increasing financial flexibility. But as you know, particularly in an environment like this, and as we've always been, but even more so now we're going to continue to be financially disciplined. Certainly opportunities like the Gulf of Mexico has John described are great because they give us more free cash flow and a potential long-term cost of service as John described as well as you know, if there are opportunities like John described in terms of assets, but we're going to be very disciplined. Certainly another use of that financial flexibility could also be return of capital to shareholders. We've talk about buybacks, certainly not from the public, it doesn't make a lot of sense, market are float side, but certainly buybacks on the sponsors could be very accretive and another use of that potential plans of flexibility, but overall ultimately as we've demonstrated historically and certainly looking forward, we're going to continue to be very financially disciplined with a focus on maintaining all of our financial metrics within the target that we've set.

[Phil Stuart:]

All right, great guys. Thanks for the additional details. That's it from me.

[John Gatling:]

Okay. Thank you.

[Operator:]

Your next question comes from the line of Jeremy Tonet from JP Morgan. Your line is open; you may ask your question.

[Unidentified Analyst:]

Hey, this is James on for Jeremy. Most of my questions already asked. But I guess just thinking high level here given you guys are well covered in for unique in this space in terms of your funding, but just any updated thoughts in terms of distribution growth. I know you guys reduced to 5% with the March update, but given where the spaces? Or how the sector has changed in the past month? Is there any kind of updated thoughts there to go forward?

[Jonathan Stein:]

Sure. So in terms of distribution growth we'd like to say distribution growth is an output, not an input, and what we mean by that is it should be the growth and the growth rate should be set consistent with our financial metrics in terms of leverage and coverage targets, that is supported by contract structure as well as the visibility that we have to fund distributions with free cash flow going forward. As we've talked about with just looking at 2020 with 97% admin fee protection through the second half of the year and the ability to deliver even 1.1 times coverage even in a scenario where we have zero third parties very conservatively. And then, with the rate reset increasing MVCs linked to 25% EBITDA growth leads $750 million of free cash flow, which is enough to be free cash flow positive after distributions in about 21 and 22. So therefore, we really -- based on all that distribution growth at 5% is really call it the right output therefore relative to the visibility that we have of our financial metrics and the stability that we've got some our contract structure. So based on all of that really no change in terms of our thinking on distribution growth.

[Unidentified Analyst:]

Got it. Thanks. That's it for me.

[John Gatling:]

Thank you.

[Operator:]

Thank you very much. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation, you may now disconnect. Have a great day.