International Business Machines Corporation
DIGITAL MODELING AND PREDICTION FOR SPREADING DIGITAL DATA

Abstract:

A method, computer program product, and a system where a processor(s) obtains a universe of social media items posted to a social media platform at a given time. The processor(s) determines a likelihood of each item of the universe of social media items becoming viral by linking each item of the universe to a breakout pattern based on predefined dimensions and bucketing each item into a defined grouping by a measure of anticipated virality of the item. The processor(s) applies a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model as a differential equation to the bucketed items to determine an equilibrium and one or more breakout points. The processor(s) determines if a social media item will become viral based on whether the item matches at least one or the one or more breakout points.