International Business Machines Corporation
Prediction model enhancement

Abstract:

An enhanced prediction model utilizing product life cycle segmentation and historic prediction data for generating more accurate future failure rates. Input data is segmented into groups based on failure modes of a corresponding life cycle. A prediction model such as Weibull analysis is implemented for each segmented group. Historical prediction data is also segmented into groups. Prediction parameters for each group of segmented historical prediction data are compared with one another and the comparisons are then used to adjust the prediction parameters generated from the segmented groups of input data. Updated parameters for the input data are then output thereby generating a new future failure rate.