International Business Machines Corporation
Generative network based probabilistic portfolio management

Abstract:

A deep-learning neural network can be trained to model a probability distribution of the asset-price trends for a future time period using a training data set, which can include asset-price trends of a plurality of assets over a past time period and a latent vector sampled from a prior distribution associated with the asset-price trends of a plurality of assets. The training data set can represent a time series data. A portfolio optimization can be executed on the modeled probability distribution to estimate expected risks and returns for different portfolio diversification options.