ICL Group Ltd
Q4 2020 Earnings Call Transcript

Published: 11 Feb 2021

[Operator:]

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. And welcome to the ICL Analysts Conference Call. Our presentation today will be followed by a question-and-answer session. I must advise you that this call is being recorded today. I’d like to hand the call over to the first speaker today, Peggy Reilly Tharp, Vice President of Global Investor Relations. Please go ahead, ma’am.

[Peggy Reilly Tharp:]

Thank you. Hello, everyone. I’m Peggy Reilly Tharp, Vice President of Global Investor Relations for ICL. I’d like to welcome you and thank you for joining us today for our Fourth Quarter 2020 Conference Call. The event is being webcast live on our website at icl-group.com.

[Raviv Zoller:]

Thank you, Peggy, and welcome everyone. To be certain 2020 was an unusual and challenging year for everyone. While the second and third quarters of this year were impacted by COVID-19, we ended the year with strong fourth quarter results. For the fourth quarter, consolidated sales rebounded back to the first quarter levels and came in at $1.3 billion, an increase of 19% year-over-year. Adjusted operating income of $143 million exceeded first quarter results and was up more than 60% year-over-year. All divisions contributed to the strong quarter as these significantly improved results were achieved despite the negative impact from lower commodity prices and COVID-19. In addition, adjusted EBITDA of $268 million was up more than 30% year-over-year in the fourth quarter. For the full year, adjusted EBITDA was nearly $1 billion and down 17% versus 2019. On slide three, we included some highlights for each division, including the following. Industrial Products delivered record fourth quarter operating income of $80 million, up 33% year-over-year and reflective of continued a strategic shift to long-term contracts, and as the effect of COVID-19 began to wane for most end markets. The Potash division reported both sales and operating income growth up 2% and 82%, respectively, and delivered record fourth quarter annual production. Increase production at The Dead Sea is compared to the fourth quarter of last year when we shutdown production for three weeks for the facilities upgrade. This increase managed to more than offset reduced production from Spain due to the accelerated closure of the Vilafruns mine and a production shortfall of Polysulphate as a result of a power outage at Boulby, U.K. in November.

[Kobi Altman:]

Thank you, Raviv, and good day, everyone. After a good start to 2020, we like many others saw downturns in the second and third quarters, due to the impact from COVID-19. We work to maximize customer service and production, while simultaneously focusing on the health and safety of our employees. Like other businesses without cost, initiated saving programs and re-evaluated our CapEx spend. Unlike other businesses, we will also hampered by lower commodity prices. However, on our sales quarter call, we were able to point the signs of recovery. Some of our financial highlights for 2020 are on slide 13. As Raviv just discussed, we maintain our strong financials and ended the year with record liquidity on hand for 2021 growth opportunities. We delivered solid operating cash flow of $804 million in 2020 and free cash flow of $188 million, all in the midst of a pandemic. Our net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 2.5 times remains in the lower end of our targeted range, and during the year, we leverage the attractive market conditions and extended more than $200 million of short-term debt past 2030. We now have over a third of our net debt with maturities beyond 2030. Turning to slide 14, you can see the commodity pricing momentum we discussed in the third quarter has continued into the fourth quarter and January 2021. Demand for fertilizers has improved, with both Potash and Phosphate showing significant increases. As the second half of 2020 progressed, we saw good demand related to increase grain prices and concerns over food security. In addition, as Raviv already mentioned, elemental bromine prices are improving. Chinese producers have decreased their supply significantly over the past few years due to resource depletion, increased environmental-related regulatory pressure and the reduced availability of land available for bromine production. Turning to slide 15, you can see the impact lower commodity prices had on fourth quarter sales and profitability and we gained ground in the quarter and so sales improved nearly 20% year-over-year. When quantities were up with growth across all four of our divisions, you can still see the impact of lower commodity prices. This is even more apparent when you look at our adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter. However, improved quantities, cost controls, and all material prices have offset lower commodity prices. Unfortunately, we were also negatively impacted by exchange rates as the U.S. dollar weakened. It appears that this will continue into 2021 and impact our operating and financing expenses once again. On slide 16, you can see the same detail for our full year. We were unable to fully offset the bottom of the commodity cycle prices instead came in 4% lower year-over-year. Our profitability was also negatively impacted by lower commodity prices. However, we still managed to deliver nearly $1 billion of adjusted EBITDA in the middle of a pandemic. To help with you some of past calculation we have provided a breakdown of annual adjusted EBITDA by decision and additional detail around our Phosphate Solutions business. This includes our specialty contribution to consolidated adjusted EBITDA of $171 million and commodity contribution of $104 million. We believe the trend in the fourth quarter bodes well for 2021 and remain convinced, but while our business is growing and can at times be complex, it also robust and varied. Our diversity helped us to weather the storm of 2020 and it will continue to benefit us in 2021. To wrap up, I would like to turn to slide 17 and remind you of some of the areas we focus on during our Investor Day. Foundationally, we remain a company with unique assets, strategic locations and decades of knowhow. Since the pandemic cannot sweep away, we remain focused on leading across our three million value chains and in our ESG thoughts, that these must be aligned. As Raviv described, our focus on innovation will only be intensified going forward and we intend to maximize our products, processes and our people, especially their ideas, as we move ahead. Finally, we will continue to maintain a strong balance sheet and a solid capital allocation approach. So we have the flexibility we need to opportunistically grow both organically and through M&A, and of course, we will maintain our industry leading dividend policy. Finally, you can see our adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2021, which we are issuing to provide better clarity around our expectations for the year. We expect our adjusted EBITDA for 2021 to be between a range of $1.02 billion to $1.12 billion, which is based on prices and exchange rate as of the beginning of 2021. We expect our financial results will improve as the year progresses. However, as a reminder, we are coming up on some record achievements in the first quarter of 2020. Specifically, we delivered record Industrial Products performance, including record sales of Clear Brine Fluids, enhanced record Potash production in The Dead Sea in the first quarter of last year. For this year, we will also be seeing the production stoppage in Spain during the first half as we complete our consolidation work there. In addition, we expect to see impact from exchange rates in 2021 if fourth quarter trends continue or intensified. With that, I will turn the call over to the Operator for Q&A.

[Operator:]

Thank you. Your first question today comes from the line of Joel Jackson of BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

[Joel Jackson:]

Hi. Good morning, Raviv, Kobi. I have three questions. I’ll ask them one at a time. Can you give a little clarity about what you expect Potash production to be in 2021 and 2022, a lot of moving parts as you bring back on Spain higher operating rates, but you’ve got some outages in Q1 for the expansion work and you’re going to expand it and you’re going to record production at Dead Sea. So what do you expect would be production ‘21 and production in ‘22? Thank you.

[Raviv Zoller:]

Thanks, Joel. Production in the Dead Sea will be between 3.9 million tonnes to 4 million tonnes this year and in Spain 700,000 tonnes to 800,000 tonnes depending on the degree of success of the consolidation which is expected to be finalized either in March or in April. The next year after that…

[Joel Jackson:]

Okay.

[Raviv Zoller:]

… we intend to exit in Spain 2021 at a run rate of 1 million tonne. It means we’ll be close to 5 million tonnes a year in 2022.

[Joel Jackson:]

That’s helpful. Sticking with Potash, so a lot of your competitors are outraged about how low the prices are in India and presumably China. You have a lot of Chinese sales. I assume you’ll be going in at the same benchmark price matching the price there with your buyers and can you also comment on the bifurcation we’re seeing between standard Asian potash markets and granular markets in the Americas? Thanks.

[Raviv Zoller:]

Absolutely. The change in the prices is really been overwhelming. And if you saw one of the slides that Kobi presented, you saw the spike in commodity prices, actually not just Potash in December, and of course, it continued in January. So as we were creating guidance for the year, what we saw in front of us was basically the Indian contract and we assumed that the time, of course, it changed tonight, we assumed that the time that the Chinese contracts would be signed at a 10-year at a $10 discount like it usually is. At the same time, we also saw an average price -- an average sale price of about $270 for granular potash in the U.S. in January. $270 is equivalent for us to about $250 standards. So it’s not so different from the $247. So that’s pretty much the -- those are the inputs that we had. But again, as we speak, the last sales we made in the U.S., I think, the last one was a $303. That was just a couple of days ago and prices still seem to be spiking up, Nutrient came out with an announcement and crisis in Brazil are going up by the day. So it’ll be interesting to see how things developed. We’re in no rush to sign contracts. Obviously, about 35% of our sales go to China and India, and they’re very strategic customers for us. At the same time, we’re already sold out until the end of April and we’d like to see more clarity about what some of the larger suppliers are doing. So we’re sort of looking at things and trying to optimize our position and we’ll be waiting for additional information. And of course, because these very rapid developments in the recent month and a half or so, we’re being better positioned to give a better projection going forward in a couple of months. Hope that answers.

[Joel Jackson:]

Yeah. So my last question would be on YPH. So on China, you’re talking about adding capacity, I believe. Would that be new capital, I think, in the past you said, you put no new capital in that project. But tell me what the new plan is or if it’s the same plan just further along now?

[Raviv Zoller:]

Well, the joint venture has been self-sustaining in terms of capital for the past almost two years. Actually it’s been returning shareholder loans quite significant amounts in the past year and a half. It’s profitable, cash flow positive, $30 million of operating income this year, which were record, third year in a row of record results. And given that the YPH plan is ramping up very nicely. We think that there are good chances if, we’ll see even better results in 2021.

[Joel Jackson:]

Thank you.

[Raviv Zoller:]

Thank you.

[Operator:]

Thank you. Your next question is from the line of Tom Wrigglesworth from Citi. Please go ahead.

[Tom Wrigglesworth:]

Raviv, Kobi, thanks for the opportunity to ask questions. Just start on , very strong performance in Industrial Products and as your bridge shows there’s very little on price in the fourth quarter, is that something you’re now expecting to capture? And just on that you’ve obviously talked annual -- about contracts, shift to contract, will that have annual pricing set up, some point or little color around contracts will be good? I am sorry, lastly, on Industrial Products, obviously substantial jump in quantities. Is there a stocking effect do you think there, noting obviously that there’s limited Clear Brine Fluids? I’ll come back to my questions on the second topic.

[Raviv Zoller:]

Okay. So, there are a few parts to your question. First, I will try to describe the dynamics in the market. We saw demand softening during the second quarter and third quarter, mainly electronics, automotive and somewhat in construction, mainly in the flame retardants market, and obviously, Clear Brine Fluids very significant decline in demand. We -- our strategy is value over volume and even though it was tempting to sell more at a lower price, we felt that there was some panic and some stocking on the other side. And the end result was that we remained firm on pricing. A lot of our business now is in long-term contracts adding compounds and what happened is that late in the third quarter we saw a significant recovery and in the fourth quarter, we even were surprised by the level of recovery completely back to normal, other than automotive and Clear Brine Fluids. Given that bromine prices went up as quick as they went down and even faster, that actually created some difficulties for some of the producers in China, because they were buying bromine at a very high price and the production of bromine compounds became less economical and that actually drove more business our way. We completed the new TBBA plant late last year and because of our long-term relationships and because of the new business that we attracted and because of the firming of the market, what ended up happening is that, we’re virtually sold out for the year our new TBBA plants, although we thought it would take about 18 months to get to that level and were basically sold out on most flame retardants for the first half of the year and demand looks very, very strong and promising. Clear Brine Fluids obviously is not at the same level that it was in the beginning of last year or anywhere near 2019. We expect that to continue. All in all, in bromide compounds, we went down only by 3% last year, despite the difficult second and third quarters, and we’re starting this year with the new capacity and the additional contracts. So we expect a very good year in compounds. And now the question is will it be enough to overcome the smaller quantity perhaps of Clear Brine Fluids. Right now at the beginning of the year was a very positive, so we feel good about it. In terms of the pricing, given that the level bromine prices were relatively high in December and January, most of our renewing contracts. Actually all of them were renewed at higher prices than the year before. So we’re good on the pricing side as well. Hope that gives you a good picture.

[Tom Wrigglesworth:]

Yeah. That’s very helpful color. And secondly, on Phosphate Solutions, obviously, you note the strong recovery or kind of performance of the Specialties business. I guess the -- if we think about the margin performance then the fourth quarter will be very seasonally affected. So, what should we thinking about the kind of the underlying margin performance given that strong fourth quarter as we look forward into 2021? Did you get back to kind of 5% plus tight margins for this division in 2021?

[Raviv Zoller:]

Well, the plan we presented for 2025 was growing our organic margin to double-digit by 2025, and at the same time, acquiring new business that is over double-digit. So we acquired double-digit operating income and EBITDA in Brazil. That will add to growing business with a growing margin in our existing business. So, on our existing business you could expect slight increase in margin during 2021, but given the new acquisition, it’ll be a little more.

[Tom Wrigglesworth:]

That is great. Very helpful. Thank you.

[Raviv Zoller:]

Thank you.

[Operator:]

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Mark Connelly from Stephens. Please go ahead.

[Mark Connelly:]

Thank you. Just start with a nice job in Pot production. Have you seen any significant shift and where you’re selling your Pot beyond the usual timing and seasonality stuff and has there been any significant shift in where your best netbacks are?

[Raviv Zoller:]

I apologize. But were you talking about Potash?

[Mark Connelly:]

Yes. I’m sorry. On Potash.

[Raviv Zoller:]

Okay. I couldn’t hear very well. Like I said, our four major markets, which account for about three quarters of our sales are China, India, Europe and Brazil. The only change in that is there was some shifts during December and January now February to the U.S., given that the price levels in the U.S. have spiked more than in other places. So we shifted some of, I would say, traditional sales that would have gone to Brazil to the U.S., other than that, not -- no major changes.

[Mark Connelly:]

Okay. That’s super helpful. And second, you did talk about…

[Raviv Zoller:]

And the netback -- the net -- sorry, I apologize. The netbacks are pretty similar as of January. Now they’re a little more from the U.S., as I said, because of the spike. Typically netbacks from China are a little lower than India, mainly because of $10 price differential that typically exists and small transportation difference. But most netbacks are usually relatively close.

[Mark Connelly:]

Okay. Super Helpful. And just you didn’t call out automotive weakness this quarter. But we know that several automotive producers are struggling, is that going to have any impact on your demand in the first half back to 2019, sorry?

[Raviv Zoller:]

Yeah. Automotive flame retardants haven’t returned to the levels before COVID. But we spoke to some analysts in the U.S. and they’re telling us there’s actually a boom in the automotive industry now in Israel and sale of new cars broke a record in December. And they explain that, because people are don’t want to travel in public transportation, they’re willing to live further away from their workplace. And also their leisure traveling is much more significantly by car because of the situation with flights. So, all in all, they expect recovery. We’re seeing a little bit of recovery, I think, again, because of stocking maybe it’ll take some more time. That’s the best information I guess I can give at this point.

[Mark Connelly:]

Super helpful. Thank you.

[Operator:]

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Alexander Jones from Bank of America. Please go ahead.

[Alexander Jones:]

Great. Thank you for the opportunity to ask questions today. And may I ask them one by one. The first one is on the Fertiláqua acquisition, whether you can give us a little bit of color around sort of how it’s going now, it’s been part of the company for over a month and your plans for the business this year as you get the opportunity to integrate that?

[Raviv Zoller:]

We’re very happy with the management team at Fertiláqua. They’ve only been with us for one month. They’re on budget for the first month, looking positive. That’s about as much as I can say at this point. It’s a new acquisition. We’re taking it very carefully. It’s our first acquisition in Brazil. But we have great trust in the management team and they’re very focused. We’re looking at some of the synergies that we plan to execute, and all in all, looks positive.

[Alexander Jones:]

Great. Thanks. And maybe a broader one on the M&A plan then, could you give us a sense of how that pipeline is developing and whether sort of the rally in crop prices and generally sentiment in the ag space changes the ease or difficulty with which you can get your hands on assets? Thank you.

[Raviv Zoller:]

I would say that we have a pipeline. So there’s not a lot I can share at this point other than the fact that healthy balance sheet with plenty of liquidity came in handy during COVID-19 were opportunities that we didn’t imagine could open to us and whenever we’ll be able to share the news, and of course, we will. Again our focus on acquisitions is in specialty fertilizer space, special focus on Brazil and food technology as well.

[Alexander Jones:]

Okay. Thank you.

[Operator:]

Thank you. There were no further questions at this time. So I’ll hand back to the speakers.

[Peggy Reilly Tharp:]

We’d like to thank you for joining us today and we look forward to talking with you later this year when we report our first quarter results. Thank you.

[Operator:]

Thank you. That does conclude the conference for today. Thank you for participating and you may now disconnect.