ORIX Corporation
Q3 2021 Earnings Call Transcript

Published: 8 Feb 2021

[Operator:]

Good evening, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining us for this telephone conference of ORIX Corporation for the third quarter consolidated financial results for the ninth month period ended December 31, 2020. Today's attendee of this conference is Executive Officer, Head of Treasury and Accounting Headquarters, Mr. Yano. As we begin this conference, we'd like to ask the participants to make sure that you would turn off your mobile phone or put it away from the telephone in order to avoid acoustic feedback. If we experience severe acoustic feedback during the meeting, we may have to discontinue the meeting for a while and ask the participant to help us. Please understand.

[Hitomaro Yano:]

I am Yano, Head of Treasury and Accounting Headquarters. Thank you for joining us today for the FY 2021 March and third quarter business performance announcement of ORIX. Without further ado, I'd like to begin. Please refer to page 2. I believe that you do have our handout. I'd like to begin by sharing the executive summary of the quarter. First, the performance. The year-to-date net income of the third quarter of FY 2021 was down Y-o-Y or year over year by 42%, ¥142 billion, with annualized ROI of 6.4%. The net income for the third quarter was ¥48.2 billion, which is an increase of 10% as compared to the second quarter. This indicates a progress of 75% vis-à-vis the target of ¥190 billion for the whole year, which we shared at the time of the interim results announcement. The guidance of ¥190 billion for the full year remains unchanged. The second point is shareholders return. On November 2 of last year, we announced the share buyback program of ¥44.2 billion. As of January 8 of this year, we have completed the execution of the program by 100%. Repurchased shares were cancelled as planned on January 29. While we would like to use some proportion of retained earnings for new investment, our policy of not retaining any unnecessary capital remains unchanged. As to the surplus capital, we intend to return them to our shareholders through stable dividend and flexible and agile share buyback program. The third point is new investment. Despite of COVID-19 pandemic, ORIX remained active in making new investment, while being very selective in choosing the target. At the time of the second quarter announcement, we shared our expectation of ¥200 billion worth of new investment. However, the new deals continued to increase and have so far made an announcement of approximately ¥400 billion worth of new investment. We will continue to deploy our investment capability widely, with focus on renewable energy and asset management. Last point is financial health. We'd like to continue managing the businesses while maintaining the health of our financial standing. Liquidity at hand excluding ORIX Bank and life insurance is secured at a high level of ¥1.1 trillion as at the end of December last year. As for credit rating, we maintained single-A or higher, with Fitch keeping their rating as at this third quarter.

[Operator:]

. We have Mr. Watanabe from Daiwa Securities.

[Kazuki Watanabe:]

I have one question to ask and being explained, and that has to do with Kobayashi Kako, what kind of impact is given to this full year business expectations and what do you think about the future from a financial perspective?

[Hitomaro Yano:]

So, Kobayashi Kako, first of all, we are terribly sorry. We offer apologies to those whose health was affected as a result of this incident. And so, as to the PE investment, we, in fact, post the result three months after the accounting, closure of the accounting. So, in terms of the impact, any impairment or appropriation of reserves would have to be considered. So, at this point in time, we don't know – it is yet to be known, the magnitude of the impact comes from this incident. But as of now, we don't regard to be material, the impact would be. So, the basic investment amount if I could refer to the amount that was the amount of investment that was made, it was a fairly sizable, relatively speaking, but it was in tens of billions of yen. But it was within the range of 100 from our perspective. So, we would like to, of course, fulfill our accountability and self-responsibility within the limit of the investment that we have made. And this is so far as much as I can share with you at this point in time. Thank you.

[Operator:]

Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley, Ms. Park.

[Natsumu Tsujino:]

This is Park, Mitsubishi UFJ. Actually, Tsujino speaking. This is not related to the actual performance but share buyback was executed. For the first six months close, you mentioned that you think that you'd have to do this on a continual basis. Given that way you're thinking, what about the timing of announcement of something like this? I would like to ask you how you plan to make the announcement in the future. You said on a continuous basis in order to make sure that the investors don't have anxiety, maybe in the beginning of the year or maybe for the full-year earnings announcement, you can talk about the share buyback program and then just implement throughout the year? Or one year ago, on year before or two years before, you could, for example, say that you want to see the results of the first half in order to make the decision. So, what do you think about the timing of announcements?

[Hitomaro Yano:]

Yes. Our basic stance for share buyback has not really changed. But unfortunately, at this point in time, I can't really say what's next. In the second quarter, we made the announcement and share buyback was completed – was going to be completed in March and it was completed. So, I don't have anything additional to announce at this point in time. Going forward, we will respond to the situations. So, in the second quarter or the final year closing, we tend to talk about our capital policy. That's what usually happens. So, depending on the performance, investment, as well as dividend policies, we have to take a balanced view. And hopefully, we can talk about share buyback like that in the future. I'm sorry, I don't have anything specific I can share with you today. Anyway, that is the plan. Thank you.

[Operator:]

The next question is from SMBC Nikko Securities, Muraki san, please.

[Masao Muraki:]

As to the outlook, I'd like you to share with us your expectations. So, there wasn't much investment gains, but the share price is remaining to be at a high level. So, taking those into account, the investment gains, on the other hand, there could perhaps be a possibility of some impairment gains in some segments, I suppose. Would you mind giving us the update as to your expectations?

[Hitomaro Yano:]

For this fiscal period, as to the investment gains, there isn't much that we have planned. So, I would imagine that the amount will be around ¥100 billion or so. So, this year would be around that amount. And the fourth quarter will be around – within the limit of our expectations. So, there will be certain amount of investment gains for sure. As to the impairment, in the third quarter, there was a small amount of impairment that was posted. Unfortunately, we had to accommodate this impairment. However, it was not sizable. And after the credit, as to the appropriation of the reserves, in the fourth quarter, we do not foresee any major impairment. Kobayashi Kako, as we have said, we're going to be taking an adequate and appropriate, of course, actions within the limit of our investment size. And as to the fourth quarter, I think I have to refrain from sharing my personal expectations. But unless there is an acute change that may take place in the market, I would imagine that the current trend may be sustained. So, that's all I can share with you.

[Masao Muraki:]

As to the aircraft leasing businesses, you have given us a comment that you remain to be cautious. With regard to Avolon, for the next three months or so, unless there is a major change this fiscal period, would there be no major impairment that you'll be posting?

[Hitomaro Yano:]

I'm not denying the fact that there will be any kind of impairment. But of course, we will be carrying out the stress test and also the impairment test with, of course, the accounting auditing firm checking against it. But as of now, we are not planning any impairment as of now. And I would imagine that it will be within the limits of our anticipation. Thank you so much.

[Operator:]

Next from JPMorgan Asset Management, Mr. Ateo please.

[Unidentified Participant:]

Just have one question in terms of your aircraft leasing business. Can you share your thoughts on the impact of bankruptcy filing of HNA on your aircraft leasing business, either directly and also through Avolon? And what is your expectation on this? And also, how much exposure do you have to the HNA group? Thank you.

[Hitomaro Yano:]

So I listened to the question in Japanese. I would like to respond in Japanese as well. With regard to HNA, it's called bankruptcy, but it's actually more like rehabilitation – civil rehabilitation. Avolon's parent has 70% of the shares. It's called Bohai. Bohai is listed and Hainan only has 28% of the shares. And within this rehabilitation program, Bohai is not included. In other words, Bohai has clearly been severed. And our long-term shareholder structure has improved. That's what we think. So, Hainan Group as a shareholder, everything's now clean. In other words, it would have a positive impact. That's what I think. And another thing I would like to mention is Avolon's exposure to Hainan or our exposure to Hainan. ORIX excluding Avolon has very small exposure, minimal exposure. We do have exposure, but it's nothing to speak of. We do have a joint venture and two or three aircraft. That's all we have in terms of exposure. So, it's negligible. Avolon itself, I think, discloses this information. Hainan Group is the largest lessee and there are some amounts that's not been collected yet. However, if you carefully read Avolon's earnings announcement, you will find this information. This uncollected amount is approximately ¥200 million, roughly speaking, and there is also the dividend reserve, which is about the same amount. So, once these accounts are settled, the amount that is yet to be collected is quite small. And our impact is 30% of that small amount. And Hainan debt will now be cleaned up and Hainan Airline wants it rehabilitated properly. We believe that it's going to be a positive factor for Avolon. That's the current status. Thank you. I hope I answered your question.

[Operator:]

We'd like to move on to the next person. GS securities, Nakamura san, please.

[Shinichiro Nakamura:]

I am from Goldman Sachs. Nakamura is my name. Just to make sure. So, the rise in the electricity tariff rates in the third quarter, were there any impact? I believe that there have been no – almost no impact? And also, is there any kind of negative impact that is given to the funding as well?

[Hitomaro Yano:]

Yes, we did receive some kind of impact. But we do have our own self-generating businesses as well. So, the impact was not as major as you may have expect. So, in the fourth quarter – that is inclusive of the fourth quarter, not just the third quarter. There were none in the third quarter, and there will be some impact given to us in the fourth quarter. But in the flow of things, it is almost negligible. The impact is not that large.

[Operator:]

Next, Sasaki san, BofA. Bank of America.

[Futoshi Sasaki:]

I want to talk about the performance of next fiscal year and beyond. I believe that the business plan, the budget for next fiscal year, is probably discussed now. After the announcement of the third quarter performance, I think you usually provide some explanation about the outlook of next year's performance – or budget. So, based on what's happened so far. Are there any positive or negative changes to the scenario for the next year's budget? That's my single question.

[Hitomaro Yano:]

I need to apologize. I am not really supposed to talk about the details of next year. But basically, no big change from the second quarter. To this date, it's ¥300 billion after tax profit. That's the steady state for us. So, how can we quickly go back to this steady state over ¥300 billion? How much recovery can we make in the next year? And as you have rightly estimated, we are formulating the budget as we speak, and hopefully, we can share more information with you at the time of the full-year announcement. That's all I can say for now. I hope you understand.

[Operator:]

. The next is Mizuho Securities, Sato san, please.

[Koki Sato:]

This is Sato from Mizuho Securities. Thank you for the opportunity. I have one question that is very much into the details. So, after the closing, at the time of the result announcement, you had talked about the two . And you said you may perhaps carry out an acceleration of the amortization. But I don't think you have decided on the direction. But do you have any kind of expectation for this?

[Hitomaro Yano:]

Well, it will be determined by METI, the Ministry of Economics and Trade and Industry. And it is not our idea as such that will be reflected to the decision. But as to the possibility, Inoue had shared his own idea.

[Koki Sato:]

But whether it is moving towards the correct – the right kind of direction, I wonder, because as of now, I don't think we have any kind of pessimistic or optimistic view to that. The risk, in fact, .

[Hitomaro Yano:]

We had touched upon the possibility of some risk, but it is not zero in – the view of the risk being not zero remains unchanged. So, that's all I can say for now.

[Operator:]

Thank you. JPMorgan, Mr. Otsuka, please.

[Wataru Otsuka:]

Otsuka with JPMorgan. I have a question about page 18, renewable energy. Thank you for the clear summary. Going forward, what would happen to this business? What is the current plan? Up until now, similar to your regular or average business, you have a lead in profit and the future growth potential. And based on that, the renewable energy business will also face portfolio turnover. It may be replaced in the future. Or is it going to be part of your ESG initiative? In other words, do you want to keep and maintain these assets? Do you have such perspective of doing this business as a part of your ESG activities? Thank you.

[Hitomaro Yano:]

The basic approach has not really changed. Renewable energy is business for us. And we believe that it's effective as business, but also it leads to sustainability as well. So, we want to actively increase such business. However, it doesn't mean that they will not face any turnovers. If we can make a big investment and if there is good timing, maybe we will decide to sell some of the assets and maybe try to grow the overall size of the renewable energy portfolio. So, it's not as if we don't plan to sell anything in the future, but we want to expand.

[Operator:]

The next person is from Citigroup Securities, Niwa san please.

[Koichi Niwa:]

This is Niwa from Citi. As to the new investment, I have a question. If at all possible, I would like you to share with us your three views. So, as at the third quarter, this ¥200 billion worth of increase, as to the speed, what is your takeaway in terms of the speed that you have acquired? And also, the due diligence process, I think you have now gotten used to the COVID-19 pandemic, but as to the speed from the management perspective, are you satisfied or not? And also, the new pipeline? Is it building up? Or is there any kind of changes to the pipeline? So, if you could comment on that so far as you're allowed to. Thank you.

[Hitomaro Yano:]

As at the third quarter, so we think that we did a pretty good job as of the third quarter. I'm sorry to be kind of self-complacent. But the reason why I say that – we may have made a mention or it was Mr. Inoue, the CEO, who had made the mention at the time of the second quarter. So, the views that was on our table already, due diligence was already progressing quite smoothly, but there was some deals that were suspended as a result of COVID-19. So, we had resumed the due diligence. So, therefore, we were able to make a quicker decision, I think, as at the third quarter. So, due diligence is something that we cannot, of course, avoid. We have to carry out a decent and proper conduct of due diligence in proceeding with a deal acquisition. Even despite of the pandemic, I think we can do a pretty good job of due diligence work for sure. So, of course, taking into account what could – of course, how things would develop, but we're not going to be relaxing our speed and we'll make sure that we will do whatever we need to. And has there been any change to the pipeline, I think was one of your questions. I don't think there has been any major – any changes to the pipeline. I will not be able to, of course, mention any specific names when it comes to the deals in the pipeline, but there have been, of course, internal analysis of the deals. But we remain to be unchanged in terms of carrying out and remaining to be active in the new investment. Thank you.

[Operator:]

Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley, Mr. Tsujino please.

[Natsumu Tsujino:]

In terms of renewable energy, you had two deals overseas. How long do you think it will take for you to achieve what level of profit? What's the plan?

[Hitomaro Yano:]

With these two deals, I think they will take time before you can really see that they're generating a lot of profits. As you can see on page 18, we have some existing deals, projects, some in construction. And we also have some expectations for future pipeline as well. Therefore, I would say it would take maybe two to three years for us to expand this. Of course, we are looking at double-digit of IRR, that's what we're looking for. And ¥10 billion or several billion – or tens of billions yens of profit should be generated in the future. And the question is, how quickly can we do it? I'm sorry, my answer is vague, but please give us some time. That's what I'm trying to say.

[Natsumu Tsujino:]

So one may be a little bit faster than the other. Any difference between the two deals?

[Hitomaro Yano:]

Not a big difference between the two deals. Greenko and Elawan, of course, will be generating some level of profit from the beginning. It's not zero. But the idea is that they will grow gradually. And going back to what I said earlier, Greenko and Elawan may not be sold halfway through. However, they may have different plans and project, and we may exit from those individual plans or projects. And that's a potential scenario.

[Operator:]

. It looks like we have entertained all the questions. So, I'd like to invite Mr. Yano to make the closing remarks.

[Hitomaro Yano:]

Thank you all very much for you to have joined in this session today. So far as I understand, I'm sorry that my answer was too quick and brief perhaps. So, we are going to be finishing earlier. But in any case, if you have any follow-up questions, please do not hesitate to contact us. Thank you. So, we'd like to conclude the session for now.

[Operator:]

Thank you. That concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation and you may now disconnect.