Meta Platforms, Inc.
Predicting performance of content item campaigns

Abstract:

An online system predicts a performance of a content item campaign based on a set of received target parameters from a content item publisher and compares the predicted performance of the content item campaign to predicted performances of comparison campaigns. The comparison campaigns are selected by performing a plurality of simulations on prior content item campaigns to estimate campaign presentation results for each prior content item campaign if presented to users with the sets of test campaign parameters. After generating histograms based on the estimated results, the online system selects prior content item campaigns for the set of comparison campaigns based on changes in histogram positions of the prior content item campaigns. The online system generates a set of estimated campaign presentation results for the content item campaign and the set of comparison campaigns for comparison.