Monster Beverage Corporation
Q4 2012 Earnings Call Transcript

Published: 28 Feb 2013

[Operator:]

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Monster Beverage Corporation Fourth Quarter and Year End 2012 Financial Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Rodney Sacks, Chairman and CEO. Sir, you may begin.

[Rodney C. Sacks:]

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for attending this call. I'm Rodney Sacks. Hilton Schlosberg, our Vice Chairman and President, is with me, as is Tom Kelly, our Senior Vice President of Finance. Before we begin, I would like to remind listeners that certain statements made during this call may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 as amended and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 as amended, and which are based on currently available information regarding the expectations of management with respect to revenues, profitability, future business, future events, financial performance and trends. Management cautions that these statements are based on our current knowledge and expectations and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, many of which are outside the control of the company that may cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements made during this call. Please refer to our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including our most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K filed on February 29, 2012, and our most recent quarterly report on Form 10-Q filed on November 9, 2012, including the sections contained therein entitled Risk Factors and Forward-Looking Statements for a discussion on specific risks and uncertainties that may affect our performance. The company assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. An explanation of the non-GAAP measure of gross sales and certain expenditures, which may be mentioned during the course of this call is provided in the notes designated with asterisks in the condensed consolidated statements of income and other information attached to the earnings release dated February 27, 2013. A copy of this information is also available on our website www.monsterbevcorp.com, in the Financial Information section. Once again, we reiterate that our products are safe based on both our and the industry's long track record and the scientific evidence supporting the safety of our ingredients. We estimate that about 50 billion cans of energy drinks have been sold and safely consumed worldwide over the past 25 years, including more than 8 billion Monster Energy drinks over the past 11 years. Based on a third-party report, it is estimated that Red Bull sold more than 5 billion cans of energy drinks in 165 countries in 2012. In 2012, we sold some 2 billion-plus cans of Monster Energy drinks in approximately 90 countries. To the best of our knowledge, the FDA's position is that it continues to believe that there is a long history of safe use of products containing caffeine in the U.S., and that the average amount of caffeine consumed by the U.S. population has not increased in spite of the entry of energy drinks into the marketplace. The FDA has confirmed that available studies do not indicate any new previously unknown risks associated with caffeine consumption. Unfortunately, inaccurate and speculative articles continue to be published in the media regarding energy drinks. We have endeavored to respond to those inaccuracies when practical by providing accurate and scientific facts to the media as has the American Beverage Association. By way of illustration, we compare the caffeine levels in Monster Energy drinks from all sources to the caffeine levels of coffeehouse coffee, such as for example Starbucks or Caribou, as this comparison is more easily understood by and meaningful to consumers. Coffee has been and continues to be extensively and safely consumed everyday in the U.S. by many tens of millions of consumers. Some publications have erroneously suggested that energy drinks contain up to 500 milligrams of caffeine and have compared them to a 5-ounce cup of coffee that contains about 100 milligrams of caffeine. Monster Energy drinks do not contain anywhere near 500 milligrams of caffeine. A 16-ounce Monster Energy drink contains approximately 160 milligrams of caffeine. We do not believe that any of the leading coffeehouses sell 5-ounce cups of coffee, including Starbucks. A small Starbucks contains 12 ounces of coffee, a medium-sized Starbucks contains 16 ounces of coffee, and its large size, 20 ounces. While Starbucks also sells an 8-ounce size, we believe the size has very limited sales. We note that Starbucks also sells an extra large 31-ounce size. In making a comparison to coffee, we believe that it is appropriate to use Starbucks' 16-ounce medium-size coffee, which is the same size as a regular 16-ounce Monster Energy drink. Starbucks' 16-ounce coffee contains approximately 330 milligrams of caffeine, which is double the approximate 160 milligrams of caffeine in the same size Monster Energy drink and a 16-ounce Caribou coffee contains between 305 and 370 milligrams of caffeine. Some have criticized our comparison on the ground that coffee is bitter, hot and consumed by adults. These criticisms are misplaced. Coffeehouses provide free sugar and cream. A significant number of items listed on their menus are sweet and indulgent and available hot and cold. Adolescents do in fact, drink coffee extensively. One only needs to visit Starbucks, Caribou or any other coffeehouse store to confirm this. It is estimated that around 350 million cups of coffee are drunk every day in the U.S., equates to about 128 billion cups per year. According to a study done by the research firm NPD, some 13% of coffee consumers are under 18. That translates to about 45 million cups of coffee that are drunk everyday by teenagers under 18 or approximately 17 billion cups per year. We estimate that the size of the energy drink market in the U.S. is about 5 billion cans a year. In other words, the coffee market is about 25x bigger than the energy drink market. Even if one were to consume -- were to assume that a higher percentage of teenagers under 18 consume energy drinks than coffee, which we do not believe is accurate, coffee consumption in the U.S. by teens under 18 is dramatically higher than energy drinks. The National Coffee Association of the USA in its 2012 national coffee drinks -- drinkers trends advise that more than 50% of coffee drinkers said they began drinking coffee at least once a week between the ages of 13 and 19. We also do not accept that consumers tend to drink coffee more slowly than energy drinks, which has also been suggested. On the contrary, coffee cools quickly and consumers generally prefer to drink their coffee before it becomes lukewarm. Additionally, a large percentage of coffeehouse coffees are not consumed hot and are positioned as cold drinks, i.e., Frappuccino, iced coffee, mochas, et cetera. As an aside, the caffeine levels of coffeehouse coffees, which are generally double that of energy drinks are also not listed on menu boards or cups. Even McDonald's, one of the largest restaurant chains in the U.S., has been remodeling their stores to provide coffee drinks, both hot and cold, in many flavors, varieties and efficacy. Monster Energy drinks have traditionally been marketed as dietary supplements as defined under the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act. However, as communicated in the past, Monster Energy drinks could also be marketed as conventional beverages because their ingredients are either FDA-approved food or color additives or substances that are Generally Recognized As Safe or GRAS at the levels used in the products. We confirm that the company has made the decision to transition its Monster Energy drinks to conventional foods for a number of business reasons, including

[Operator:]

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Kaumil Gajrawala of UBS.

[Kaumil S. Gajrawala:]

I know you're happy with the successes of Zero Ultra, can you talk a little bit about the incrementality of the product? And maybe how much is cannibalizing Lo-Carb or Absolute Zero or maybe even green can?

[Rodney C. Sacks:]

I think that -- we don't think that it's cannibalizing the green can, let's start off with that. That is still up nicely. And that is the largest product, so that is up quite nicely. We have seen some cannibalization against basically the Lo-Carb and our Absolute Zero. We are seeing some cannibalization against those 2 products, that is to be expected. They're all basically playing in that 0 or low-carb category. The actual sales we saw, we reached about 72% distribution in convenience. We still have some distribution to gain, and we think also quality of distribution. In some cases, it's been squeezed onto shelves, so we think that there is some room for expansion in both numbers and quality. And it is already pretty much our second best-selling SKU on a per point basis in the stores it's in. So it has been very, very successful.

[Kaumil S. Gajrawala:]

And just quickly to make sure I understood, you said green can was up. Did you give a number? Did you say it was up strongly? I don't have that number.

[Rodney C. Sacks:]

Let me give a number, it's up 4.4% in the 13 weeks.

[Kaumil S. Gajrawala:]

Okay, got it. And then the last thing on shots, this is your second go-around on the shots business. Sounds like it's down substantially. It also seems like it's a very different consumer that drinks -- that uses shots versus the energy drink consumers. Is it a category that maybe just doesn't fit the profile of your playbook or is it something that you feel that over time has a place...

[Rodney C. Sacks:]

We don't know. We know that there is a category there. We know that it has slowed. But there definitely is -- a category exists. It is a category, in which the basically the only player is still earning very good margins. We believe it is a slightly different consumer, but it does -- a demographic, but it does -- it is related. We're in the beverage category. We believe there still is business. We believe there is room for a competitor, but so far nobody's been able to really crack the code. But it doesn't mean we shouldn't continue trying whether it's in -- with Worx in its present form, its present flavors, its present size, its present pricing. I think we're going to continue to look at and evaluate, but we do believe there is still some opportunity that as a beverage company, we shouldn't walk away from and take off the table. But it does have an effect obviously in looking at comps, and that's why we break it out and deal with it. But we still haven't made final decisions on what to do exactly with Worx or what direction to take in that category.

[Operator:]

Our next question comes from Judy Hong of Goldman Sachs.

[Judy E. Hong:]

Rodney and Hilton, first just in international market, so fourth quarter slowed down a little bit if I look at your sales growth x currency. So maybe can you talk about some of the markets where you saw a little bit of a softness or is this just really more of a shipment versus kind of a consumer takeaway volatility issue? And from a profitability perspective, it sounds like you are pretty much breakeven in the fourth quarter in your international market. So do you think we're close to now at an inflection point where all of your international markets collectively start to turn profitable?

[Rodney C. Sacks:]

I think that one of the things that did negatively effect our sales in Europe was that CCE in particular went through a realignment of some of their inventories, which decreased, I think, purchases that would ordinarily have been expected from them. And I think -- we think that had a little bit of a dampening effect. I don't want to go into each of the countries. I don't have them handy as to what we did in each of them. We did highlight the major countries, in which we did experience good growth, and those are the main markets in Europe, which is, I think, just about everywhere I think we've grown. I mean, there may be 1 or 2 anomalies, but some of them are -- we still grew. We may not have grown in sell-in, but we did grow in sell-through, but those are the small markets, and they sort of just -- it's just a question of timing. So basically, the main markets, we continue to grow quite nicely, which is the U.K., Germany, Spain, South Africa, Benelux, were good markets this year as well.

[Judy E. Hong:]

Then just in terms of profitability, 2-part question, one, can you talk about Brazil and how the launch in Brazil could impact your profitability in your international markets? Presumably, those are a more profitable market than perhaps some of your other markets. And I believe you said 9.5% in January sales, but you started to ship into Brazil at the end of January. So can you broadly talk about kind of Brazil and how you think that, that market will contribute to your international business in 2013?

[Rodney C. Sacks:]

I'm not sure -- while we began to ship to Ambev, also there was transfer of existing inventories, I think, from our existing distributor to Ambev, so I'm not sure what the net incremental sales were. But the initial response from Ambev has been positive. We're positive. They are a powerful organization. They have extensive distribution. It is rolling out on a sort of a gradual basis, in a region by region basis. It wasn't an immediate hit right through Brazil. But we do believe that there is good growth potential in Brazil. We also believe that while we are continuing to pack our product at an independent third-party packer, we are -- we don't get the benefit of a number of tax breaks and other things. Some of those benefits we believe we will be able to achieve and improve our margins as we realign our packaging with Ambev and take other steps to improve our margins. So we are quite happy. The value chain is acceptable. The value chain, particularly in some of the -- most of the other South American countries we've gone into has also -- has also been quite positive for us. And we will basically -- we will anticipate some costs of trade, MDF slotting, et cetera, as we continue to list product in basically chains in Brazil. We really didn't have very extensive distribution before. So we do look at some upside coming from the South American region. Once we get some of the costs in local production going in Japan and Korea particularly, we do believe those countries will also start contributing profitably. So I think that overall, we were slightly negative on international. But we are looking forward this year to turning the corner. But again, there's a big mix of international that goes into that whole pot, and I can't be more definite than that.

[Operator:]

Our next question comes from Caroline Levy of CLSA. Caroline S. Levy - Credit Agricole Securities (USA) Inc., Research Division Just I was wondering if you could help us understand proportionately the makeup of the international sales. I mean, Mexico and Canada both in there if I'm not mistaken. Are they the lion's share or is the U.K., Europe, just helping us really understand that.

[Rodney C. Sacks:]

I can try and get some of those sort of totals. Europe is -- overall is clearly far bigger. But I don't -- I'll try and get some of the information to give you some idea of that breakup, while I'm talking and come back to that. Caroline S. Levy - Credit Agricole Securities (USA) Inc., Research Division That sounds great. In that context, I was just wondering if the margins in Mexico and Canada are much closer to the U.S. And that it's the all other dragging it down or was Europe getting toward -- just to understand how the time in each market leads to margin expansion over time.

[Rodney C. Sacks:]

We think the margins in Canada are certainly more closely aligned to the U.S. and Mexico's a little lower. But also still reasonably aligned to the U.S. Europe has sort of pretty decent margins. Asia-Pacific is where we are suffering from low margins at this point in time, and we believe that will be -- start being corrected as we go forward operationally. And in South America sort of in between, but again, we hope that we'll be able to improve margins in South America as in when we start producing with Ambev in Brazil and also in other regions in South America. In the dollars, while -- if you look at the U.K., as an individual country the U.K. is our biggest country after the U.S. It's larger than Canada or Mexico. And Spain, basically in the quarter, Spain, Japan, South Africa, Australia and Germany are the next largest, and they are reasonably close to each other after that. Caroline S. Levy - Credit Agricole Securities (USA) Inc., Research Division Oh, interesting.

[Rodney C. Sacks:]

Just to give you a sort of order of how it goes. Caroline S. Levy - Credit Agricole Securities (USA) Inc., Research Division Sorry?

[Rodney C. Sacks:]

To give you an order of how they're sort of coming in dollar terms sales. Caroline S. Levy - Credit Agricole Securities (USA) Inc., Research Division May I also just clarify, you said sales were up 9.5% lapping 32%. What were you referring to in that number in January?

[Rodney C. Sacks:]

I was referring to the increase last year, January over the January the year before. Caroline S. Levy - Credit Agricole Securities (USA) Inc., Research Division Is this U.S. Nielsen data?

[Hilton H. Schlosberg:]

It's our sales.

[Rodney C. Sacks:]

No. It's our sales. Caroline S. Levy - Credit Agricole Securities (USA) Inc., Research Division And does it include international?

[Hilton H. Schlosberg:]

Yes.

[Rodney C. Sacks:]

Yes. This is growth. Caroline S. Levy - Credit Agricole Securities (USA) Inc., Research Division Growth, yes.

[Operator:]

Our next question comes from Bill Chappell of SunTrust.

[William B. Chappell:]

Looking at the U.S. market over the, I guess, the past few months, it's not that you've been losing a ton of share, but it seems like Red Bull has been gaining more than most. And just trying to see if you look at that, is that coming the Red Bull, from space jump and better marketing or do you think they haven't been quite as tainted by some of the negative press as you have? And was that something you think that will continue or is it just more of a short term?

[Rodney C. Sacks:]

I think what happened was, you saw initially I think the negative press seemed to have been directed sort of focused more on our brand as opposed to the category. And then more recent times, it's becoming a whole category issue. So we think that was probably one factor. We also think if you look at the individual sales, what has happened in Red Bull is they've really -- what has happened, the one package that has grown for them has been their 12-ounce package, which has become their leading package, and that's where they've seen quite a big bump and basically based on not so much -- not on units, but on value because they really were trading up from a 8-ounce size at $2 to a 12-ounce size at $2.49 or whatever it is, or $2.90 or whatever the price is. The average price of their -- I'll give you the 2, the pricing from $2.17 up to the average price of $2.89. So that's largely where they have picked up and continued to pick up market share in dollar terms. That's accounted for that. They've also we think -- what we've seen is substantially a substantial pick up in marketing, not only in the U.S., but around the world. And that clearly also has probably had some effect on their sales.

[William B. Chappell:]

And is that something you need to react to or you feel very comfortable with...

[Rodney C. Sacks:]

A lot of that is -- a lot of it is when you time your marketing programs. We're looking at the markets, they've executed very well in the markets. That's an issue which I think we need to get our distribution partners to perhaps step up their distribution capabilities and the presence on shelf. They are executing very well in store, which is important. And then I think if you do look at the last 4 weeks, we've sort of tended to catch up and we've now -- we're actually slightly ahead of them in convenience. I think it's going to be growth in convenience and gas. So it will take -- it will start catching up and then I think as we sort of start to get into our promotional cycle, we think things will improve. They did introduce some line extensions also during the period through one of their -- they had exclusive I think on some line extensions with 7-Eleven, but what our experience has been overseas that those line extensions ultimately haven't been particularly incremental. But we don't know how they will ultimately pan out in the U.S. Again, we think that, that won't be a driver going forward for them, but they overall have improved their share.

[Operator:]

Our last question will come from Mark Astrachan of Stifel.

[Mark S. Astrachan:]

A couple of housekeeping questions. What were Rehab sales in the quarter? Japan, Korea cost in the quarter? How does that compare to the magnitude of the cost that you incurred there in the second and third quarter?

[Rodney C. Sacks:]

Rehab was a little bit difficult. We've seen some softness in some of the Rehab SKUs. We haven't been able to really get fully under the numbers because last year, we did have the line extensions, which went into -- were listed in the fourth quarter. So there was clearly some sell-in and then -- it's really just been difficult to really compare them. There has been a mixed bag of up and down and that effect. We also think there is possibly some seasonality that is starting to show up more in the Rehab line more than perhaps our other lines because of the fact that it is a tea and it's a non-carbonated tea product. So we think that there also has been some seasonality impact. Can you repeat your second question to us?

[Mark S. Astrachan:]

Yes, the second question one is the cost incurred for the rollout in Japan and Korea in the fourth quarter, were they of similar magnitude to what you incurred in the second and third quarter? And then just a follow-up to the Rehab, do you have a net sales number overall? Were Rehab sales up in the fourth quarter on your the reported numbers, not the scanner data?

[Rodney C. Sacks:]

Retail sales on gross dollars are not up in the fourth quarter of '12 versus '11. They are down somewhat. But again, we've not really been able to tell with any real certainty how we've taken out the effect -- to back out the effect of the sell-in. We believe that if you'd back out the effect for sell-in, there's not much difference. But again, that's something we just haven't been able to get fully into. On the costs, I'm not sure I'm able to give you an answer on the phone on the costs in Asia, fourth quarter versus the third at this point. I think it's just -- I just don't have them handy.

[Mark S. Astrachan:]

All right, fine. Just lastly then on share repurchase, so is this something that we need to wait for the board to convene to re-up another authorization or is there something you want to talk about regarding that?

[Rodney C. Sacks:]

This is -- we really have no -- we cannot give you any update. This is something that we're going to -- we'll put on the agenda. We have a board meeting on Friday. We'll put it on -- have it on the agenda. But we're not sure what we want to at this point in time. And just really hard for me to speculate now as to whether we'll introduce an additional program, certainly immediately we've just spent a lot of money expanding, so we may relook at it. But we will evaluate at the board meeting on Friday.

[Operator:]

And at this time, I'd like to turn the call back to management for any further remarks.

[Rodney C. Sacks:]

On behalf of Monster I would like to thank each of you for your continued interest in the company. We continue to believe in our growth strategy, and we remain committed to developing and differentiating our brands and to expanding the company at home and abroad. We reiterate that our products are safe, are properly labeled, and that the caffeine content in a Monster Energy drink at approximately 10 milligrams per ounce is less than half the milligrams per ounce of caffeine contained in Starbucks and other coffeehouse brewed coffee. Thank you very much.

[Operator:]

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference. This does conclude today's presentation. You may all disconnect. Everyone have a great day.