NiSource Inc.
Q4 2009 Earnings Call Transcript

Published: 1 Feb 2010

[Operator:]

Welcome to the Q4 2009 NiSource earnings conference call. At this time all participants are in a listen only mode. We will conduct a question and answer session towards the end of this conference. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. I would now like to turn the call over to your host for today, Glen Kettering, Senior Vice President Corporate Affairs.

[Glen L. Kettering:]

On behalf of NiSource I would like to welcome you to our quarterly analyst call. Joining me this morning are Bob Skaggs, President and Chief Executive Officer; Steve Smith, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Randy Hulen, Director of Investor Relations. As you know the focus of today’s call is to review our fourth quarter and yearend 2009 financial performance, share key accomplishments by our teams during 2009 and provide you with some insight on the upcoming year. We will then open the call to your questions. At times during the call we will refer to the supplemental slides available on our website at www.NiSource.com. I’d like to remind all of you that some of the statements made on this call will be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Safe Harbor provisions of the US federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements. Information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially is included in the managements’ discussion and analysis section of our Form 10Q quarterly report for the third quarter of 2009 which was filed October 30, 2009 with the SEC. Our annual Form 10K will be filed in late January. Now, I’d like to turn the call over to Bob Skaggs.

[Robert C. Skaggs:]

We have several important matters to address this morning after which we’ll open the call to your questions. In my prepared remarks I’ll be addressing NiSource’s fourth quarter and full year 2009 earnings, a number of highlights and key accomplishments across our businesses during 2009 and finally our earnings outlook for 2010. Let’s start with NiSource’s 2009 financial results which were solidly in line with our full year operating earnings outlook of $1.00 to $1.10 per share. I would add that year-over-year cash flows from operating activities increased by more than $1 billion. In short term borrowings at yearend 2009 were more than $1 billion lower than at yearend 2008. We’ll touch more on our liquidity position in a few moments. Given the unprecedented dislocations in the financial markets and challenging economic environment across our markets by virtually any measure NiSource not only weather the storm during 2009, we emerged as a stronger and more robust company. For 2009 we achieved non-GAAP net operating earnings of approximately $295 million or $1.07 per share. Operating earnings for the year were approximately $880 million. For the fourth quarter our net operating earnings again, Non-GAAP were approximately $99 million or $0.35 per share. I’d submit that our teams’ ability to deliver on our financial commitments in the face of the great recession underscores the resilience of our core regulated businesses and is a testament to the teams’ disciplined execution. In addition to aggressive cost management across all our business units during 2009, we increased net revenues in both our gas distribution and gas transmission and storage businesses. At NiSource gas distribution net revenues excluding regulatory trackers increased about $70 million during 2009 primarily attributable to the team’s extensive array of regulatory initiatives. In our gas transmission and storage unit the team delivered approximately $56 million in increased net revenues excluding regulatory tractors resulting from growth projects, short term transportation and storage services and mineral rights leasing. As expected, these improvements were more than offset by three key items we’ve discussed with you throughout the year

[Operator:]

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Paul Ridzon – Keybanc Capital Markets.

[Paul Ridzon:]

You talked about $1 billion optimal cap ex, where do you see the trajectory as to when you could get there again?

[Robert C. Skaggs:]

Well, Paul we’re going to be measured. Certainly we believe we have a pipeline of promising opportunities at all of the business units. But, to begin stepping towards a billion we’re going to have to do it on a measured base. We’re going to make sure that the investments are worthy investments to meet the test of being accretive ,they’re going to have to meet the test of being treated favorably in the regulatory environment and we’re going to have to balance sheet to support those sorts of investments. So again, we’re going to do it on a measure basis, we’re going to do it mindful of our commitment to the dividend, mindful to our commitment of investment grade and mindful that we want to ensure that we create shareholder value so it’s going to be on a measured basis.

[Paul Ridzon:]

In your 3% to 5% EPS growth seems like a bit of deviation to prior language of look to flattish for the next few years. Is that 3% to 5% going to be lumpy at all or can we just kind of think more or less smooth 3% to 5%.

[Robert C. Skaggs:]

The goal is smooth 3% to 5% and again, we believe what we put in place at the regulatory and commercial pillars to support that.

[Paul Ridzon:]

Then what’s your outlook for when in ’11 you could possibly get new Indiana electric rates?

[Robert C. Skaggs:]

Assuming we file the electric rate case midyear 2010 we certainly believe the case is going to take 12 months, could possibly take 18 months. Hopefully it’s going to go at a faster clip than the current case but, I would say 12 to 18 months is when we expect an outcome.

[Paul Ridzon:]

Then on your GAAP reconciliation there’s some reference to non-regulated marketing, can you just give some background as to what that is?

[Stephen P. Smith:]

That is the dollars associated with our unregulated marketing subsidiary that we’re moving out of.

[Paul Ridzon:]

So it’s kind of discontinued ops?

[Stephen P. Smith:]

Yes, more or less.

[Operator:]

Your next question comes from [Natalie Berkhard] – Allstate.

[[Natalie Berkhard]:]

I just had a couple of questions, one is have you begun negotiations with the banks to extend out the revolver yet?

[Stephen P. Smith:]

We are very happy with our revolver, as you know it doesn’t expire until July of 2011. So, we haven’t officially started talking to the banks that are in that facility but we are mindful of any opportunities that might present themselves between now and then to work with them and perhaps extending that prior to the actual expiration date.

[[Natalie Berkhard]:]

But do you feel like there shouldn’t be too many issues to be able to keep the facility at the size you have it at right now?

[Stephen P. Smith:]

Well, I think as the market moves forward month-after-month we’ve seen the credit market get stronger and it appears as though rolling over working capital facility shouldn’t be too challenging. The question as to do you need the full $1.5 billion or not and we’re in the process of working through the analysis there to make sure that the facility is the right size for our needs going forward.

[[Natalie Berkhard]:]

Then on the balance sheet you have the current maturities of let’s call them $700 for the November notes and then with the December issuance, I just want to make sure that this is right, that because the revolver is down close to $1 billion from last year that you basically used the December proceeds to keep the balance low on the revolver.

[Stephen P. Smith:]

That’s exactly right Natalie. We basically took all the spare liquidity we had generated through the balance of 2009 and paid down the revolver. You’ll see in the 2009 balance sheet we were only carrying a borrowing position around $100 million so we paid off a significant amount of what was outstanding on that revolver.

[[Natalie Berkhard]:]

That cash typically comes back in second quarter?

[Stephen P. Smith:]

Yes, I mean it flows in over the course of the year. Our biggest quarters from an earning respective are the first quarter and the fourth quarter so we’ll start to see dollars flow in as a result of people burning gas in the winter and getting billed and paying those bills here in the first and second quarter.

[[Natalie Berkhard]:]

Just last question, if you can kind of just comment on industrial in the fourth quarter and then what trends you saw just again just kind of maybe put this in to perspective which is looking at what happened in Florida and the rate case there. There’s the concern there that for them clearly the issues with the rate cases down in Florida were based on a challenging economy down there and we know that Northern Indiana is not quite doing well. So if you can kind of just talk about the trends in industrial and then how you see that potentially changing or if anything has changed at all that could negatively impact the rate case as we’re still waiting on that?

[Robert C. Skaggs:]

On the industrial side we have just seen a very, very modest uptick during the fourth quarter particularly in northwest Indiana and speaking to the steel and steel related lows, just very marginal improvement fourth quarter over third quarter. As I mentioned, the outlook assumes just very, very modest recovery. We just don’t see a lot yet Natalie. Some of the key indicators in the Steel industry would suggest improvement but again, we haven’t seen that. A couple of the indicators I would cite were lower inventories, some firming of pricing, that sort of thing but again we just haven’t seen it translate in to a significant upward moving in demand? How that might impact the regulatory process, at this point the record is closed on the first case in Indiana. We know that the Commission will deliberate very carefully and do their diligence on the record but we believe that the commission will proceed based on the record that we presented to them. I would observe from a far, and this is very much from afar that the process in Florida has been politicized to a great extent. Again, we believe that the Indiana Commission is balanced, measured and they’ll make a reasonable decision based on the record.

[Operator:]

Your next question comes from Jay Dobson – Deutsche Bank.

[Jay Dobson:]

A quick question or a couple actually, first on the NGT&S business, Bob in your comments you were I think ending the year something like $155 million or so of cap ex going in to ’10 and then you mentioned additional projects. Should we interpret that as some upward bias to the $300 you’re showing as cap ex for the NGT&S business on slide seven?

[Robert C. Skaggs:]

Number one, the $155 million I mentioned were Marcellus related projects that are in process so some of those dollars were being spent last year, some of those dollars continue on and clearly the intent was to show you we are very active in the Marcellus region and we expect to be. Again, I mentioned that we will be announcing additional Marcellus projects as the year unfolds. At the moment we see the $300 as being good for 2010 clearly though it’s a competitive business, projects do surface, opportunities do arise that could move that number up but it’s very situational and again we’ll be disciplined and thoughtful when we look at those opportunities.

[Jay Dobson:]

So I completely understand those additional projects that you’re talking about some of them have a place holder in there so we shouldn’t assume you announce a new project that necessarily the $300 goes up, there may be some place holders in that is situational around what the exact dollars may be?

[Robert C. Skaggs:]

That’s accurate.

[Jay Dobson:]

As you’re thinking about all those projects I know on the last call you mentioned I think you used the term the MLP was off the table temporarily as a result of valuations. We’ve seen those valuations snap back, as you look at the Marcellus and the opportunities up there for the NGT&S business your current thinking on MLP?

[Robert C. Skaggs:]

We clearly are observing the recovery of that market. Clearly, we’ve noted what Williams has done so we continue to look at that as a potential tool. It might augment, supplement, enhance some of the things that we’re doing. We haven’t made a decision to go in that direction yet, we will continue to watch it very carefully and ensure that we do the right thing.

[Jay Dobson:]

How would you have us think about that opportunity? Is that driven by increasing opportunities in Marcellus or NGT&S that we would start to see $300 go up further that would drive your decision on the MLP or is it simply just the economics of the market around MLPs and the like?

[Robert C. Skaggs:]

I think it’s a broad set of considerations. I think frankly though the last point you mentioned is probably one of the key points but there are many, many other points. Again, I’ve talked about our commitment to enhance shareholder value but also the commitment to improve the balance sheet. Clearly MLPs impact those commitment differently and there is certainly also an element of governments that’s involved so a broad array of considerations. I think probably the last one you mentioned, cost of capital, ease of financing, those are points that weigh heavily.

[Jay Dobson:]

Two other questions, first on your slide three the walk across ’09 to 2010 you have a -$0.05 other, I didn’t know if there was some granularity in there. I’m sure there are a bunch of nits and nats but if you can give us any visibility in to that figure?

[Stephen P. Smith:]

The bulk of that $0.05, $0.03 to $0.04 is pension expense.

[Jay Dobson:]

Then Steven while I’ve got you, I noticed the tax rate ticked up in the fourth quarter and sort of ended up pushing the full year to almost 38.5%. Where would you have that be for 2010?

[Stephen P. Smith:]

I would say a bit lower than 38%.

[Jay Dobson:]

Approaching on the 36% you had last year?

[Stephen P. Smith:]

Yes I would say that’s a good estimate.

[Operator:]

Your next question comes from Carl Kirst – BMO Capital Markets.

[Carl Kirst:]

Actually, most of my questions hit, maybe just a couple of clarifications if I could on the 2010 guidance and understanding you really can’t say much with respect to the NIPSCO but just to be clear is there an assumption of this NIPSCO rate case baked in the regulatory initiatives in to the 2010 guidance or are we treating that as a separate item to be addressed once it is resolved?

[Robert C. Skaggs:]

We’ve attempted to reflect that in the guidance. We’ve consistently said that the outcome we’re modeling is middle of the road so nominal impact on 2010 but it’s not separate and apart from the guidance we’re giving you.

[Carl Kirst:]

Then second on that walk across to 2010 the other question and you may have already mentioned this while I was taking down notes, the -$0.10 from what looks like depreciation and other taxes what is specifically driving that, is that coming from cap ex?

[Robert C. Skaggs:]

That’s exactly what it is, it just reflects the increase cap ex spend that we’ve been incurring.

[Operator:]

Your next question comes from [Tom O’Neil – Green Harold].

[[Tom O’Neil:]

Just a couple of questions on 2010 just in terms of what is assumed, is it possible just to lay out what industrial sales level you’re assuming and then what NGT&S optimization you’re assuming versus the $56 million in 2009?

[Robert C. Skaggs:]

I won’t go in to detail Tom at this point but let me just reiterate that the industrial load just reflects a very, very modest recovery or improvement year-over-year. When I say modest I mean modest. The other part of the question was?

[[Tom O’Neil:]

NGT&S versus 2009?

[Robert C. Skaggs:]

It reflects a solid year, not as strong as last year but certainly a solid year.

[[Tom O’Neil:]

More in line with history prior to this year?

[Robert C. Skaggs:]

A bit closer.

[Operator:]

Ladies and gentlemen this concludes all the time we have for questions today. I would now like to turn the call back over to Mr. Bob Skaggs for closing remarks.

[Robert C. Skaggs:]

Again, we want to thank everybody for your participation in this morning’s call, your interest in NiSource and your support of our company. We appreciate it. Have a good day.

[Operator:]

Ladies and gentlemen this concludes the presentation for today’s conference. You may disconnect and have a wonderful day.