NIKE, Inc.
Q4 2012 Earnings Call Transcript

Published: 29 Jun 2012

[Operator:]

Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to NIKE's Fiscal 2012 Fourth Quarter Conference Call. For those who need to reference today's press release, you'll find it at http

[Kelley Hall:]

Thank you, operator. Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining us today to discuss NIKE's fiscal 2012 fourth quarter results. As the operator indicated, participants on today's call may discuss non-GAAP financial measures. You will find the appropriate reconciliations in our press release, which was issued about 1 hour ago and at our website, investors.nikeinc.com. Joining us on today's call will be NIKE, Inc.'s President and CEO, Mark Parker; followed by Charlie Denson, President of the NIKE Brand; and finally, you will hear from our Chief Financial Officer, Don Blair, who will give you an in-depth review of our financial results. Following their prepared remarks, we will take your questions. [Operator Instructions] Thanks for your cooperation with this. With that, I'll now turn the call over to NIKE, Inc.'s President and CEO, Mark Parker.

[Mark G. Parker:]

Thanks, Kelley, and good afternoon, everyone. Fiscal 2012 said a lot about NIKE and a lot about our world. We operate in a highly competitive industry in a rapidly evolving global economy. Success requires a growth strategy anchored in strength, focus and flexibility. In fiscal 2012, we demonstrated our strengths

[Charles D. Denson:]

Thanks, Mark. Good afternoon, everybody. While the NIKE Brand delivered solid growth for Q4, on a constant currency basis, global revenue was up 14%. We grew in every geography and all of our key categories, with 6 growing double digits. NIKE Brand DTC revenue increased 21%, driven by comp store growth in our factory and in-line doors and a 23% increase in online sales. And our global futures number grew 12%. That's a very strong quarter of top line growth. We did it on the strength of our product innovation, the power of the brand and the differentiation we create through distribution. Those are good tools to work with, and they really come to life in the categories. As you know, that's where we connect with athletes and consumers who represent clear opportunities for significant growth. The best example of that right now is our Running business. It's up 31% in constant currency for fiscal year 2012 coming in, as Mark said, at $3.7 billion, and that's on top of a 30% growth number last year, over $1.5 billion of incremental revenue over the past 2 years. So why the boom in rank? There are lots of parts to that answer. It's a universal activity. You can do it alone or you can do it with your friends. You can do it virtually your whole life and there's a low barrier to entry. Running also offers some of the most dramatic moments in sports. You saw that in the women's 100-meter final at the Olympic trials down at Eugene. Allyson Felix and Jeneba Tarmoh finished in a dead heat to decide who would run in the 100 meters in London. It was an unbelievable finish and even if you can't run the 100 in 11 flat, running still offers a tremendous health benefit. What's new in running is the rise of digital technology and services. Runners are technology-oriented athletes who recognize genuine innovation. Digital speaks to them becomes it helps them train, compete and measure their performance. Digital services can motivate them and connect them to other runners. Today running is a social activity, and digital is helping drive participation rates through the roof all over the world. Most of our new performance innovation starts in the Running category before it expands into other categories and even other brands. So when we create Nike+ and Free, Lunar or Flyknit like we did this year, we're really launching a long-term platform for growth, then we expand on the platform using the brand to develop apps, events and services that add value and opportunity. And we bring it to life in destination retail, where consumers can get the full Nike running experience. That's the future of connecting with athletes and consumers. It's the same model in Global Football. It starts with amazing products like the Mercurial VIII boot and a new generation of lightweight, sustainable uniforms we created for the Euro Champs. Footballers also have an amazing appetite for great stories. Last month, we launched the My Time is Now campaign. It's been seen by nearly 20 million viewers on YouTube already. Lots of energy in our Global Football business. We're up 12%, excluding FX, to over $2 billion in fiscal 2012. And by the way, it doesn't hurt when Nike athletes score more goals in the Euro Champs than all of your competition combined. We like that. Okay, real quick, I want to mention Sportswear. We added over $400 million in incremental revenue in fiscal year 2012. That's a good number. As Mark has said many times, Apparel is one of our biggest growth opportunities and a big part of our Sportswear strategy. Here's how we're getting after it. We look at product in 3 dimensions

[Donald W. Blair:]

Thanks, Charlie. Before I review our Q4 results and FY '13 guidance, I want to make 3 points that put those details into context

[Operator:]

. [Operator Instructions] Our first question will come from the line of Kate McShane with Citi Investment Research.

[Kate McShane:]

Don, I was wondering if you could talk about inventory a little bit more. I think on the last call, you had estimated that you thought the higher inventories in China and Europe would take about 6 months to work through. Is this going to take longer now? And can you just give us an update on the inventory levels with respect to those 2 countries?

[Donald W. Blair:]

Okay. So I'm going to let Charlie speak specifically to those 2 markets, but what I do want to do is just reiterate from an overall standpoint, about 70% of our inventory is really coming from other places. So to just put this into context, North America and Emerging Markets are really driving the overall balances for the company. And the inventory positions we're working through in China and Western Europe are much smaller piece of that equation.

[Charles D. Denson:]

Yes, this is Charlie, and I think our ability to move through the inventory, we feel very confident. Right now the Apparel piece, specifically in China, is a little bit heavier. We've talked about that in the past. We think that we're in a good position to move through that -- through the calendar -- or through the end of the calendar year. So as we look at the second half of the fiscal year, our anticipation is that we'll be in a better position in both geographies from an inventory standpoint.

[Mark G. Parker:]

But most of the inventory growth, as Don said, I want to point that out again, is coming out of the fast growth territories, in North America and Emerging Markets.

[Kate McShane:]

Okay. And did you happen to quantify how much the discounting of the European and China Sportswear had on your gross margins during the quarter?

[Donald W. Blair:]

Yes, there was a pretty small impact from off-price margin and mix in the fourth quarter. It was a very modest, negative impact, about 20 basis points.

[Kate McShane:]

So the surprise of the 50 basis points are down from where you originally guided came from where?

[Donald W. Blair:]

Well as I said in the prepared remarks, we had 70 basis points of drag that came from 2 things

[Operator:]

Your next question will come from the line of Bob Drbul with Barclays.

[Robert S. Drbul:]

Just got a couple of questions. First, Mark, you reiterated your confidence in the ability to get to the $28 billion to $30 billion number that you guys laid out by 2015. Can you specifically talk a little bit about China? I think you had talked about the potential to double China over that period. Can you still give us a feel for where you think you are in that market, especially given some of the trends that are there currently?

[Mark G. Parker:]

Sure. My confidence in the -- our confidence, I'll say, in that $28 billion to $30 billion is in the overall diversity of the portfolio that we've got. So -- and we feel China, although we're hitting a speed bump here in fiscal '13, we feel very confident in the long-term growth potential in China. I think we're working through some inventory -- industry-wide inventory issues there. As we discussed, the consumer appetite for our product, our brands is quite strong. We feel really good about our position overall, working very closely with our partner retailers in China. And again, the prospects for our growth over this period in China are actually quite strong despite fiscal '13 is going to be a bit more challenging than what we've seen over the past 5 years. And again, we feel very strong about the overall portfolio growth opportunity from a category and a geography standpoint.

[Robert S. Drbul:]

Okay. And then my second question is can you elaborate a little bit on the trends in Europe? Have you seen with the Euro Championships any major improvements or things that you're really excited about? And when you think about the Olympics that are on the horizon now, what the expectations are for that specific business as well?

[Charles D. Denson:]

Bob, this is Charlie. Well, I think the Western Europe has -- I'm still pretty bullish on the Western Europe business. I think it's -- there's a big opportunity for us there as you look at both where we're positioned in the marketplace and what we've been able to do over the last 1 year, 1.5 years around our performance positioning, which is the one I'm most excited about. Some of our market share information coming out continues to show some very substantial gains across the Western European landscape, and it's really what we build the rest of the platform off of, whether it's the Training or the Sportswear. So I'm still pretty bullish about the opportunity in Europe. I think obviously, the macros continue to moderate that push-ness because you just don't know how strong the macros are going to -- how much of a headwind we're going to be running into. But I feel really good about the reorg. You see the -- we took the charge in the fourth quarter around reorg-ing the Western European business. I feel very confident about what we're doing there and the direction that we're taking and I really like the positioning that we have regarding performance and what we're doing there. And I think that there's some real opportunity around distribution. And doing some things across the geography, again to leverage both our brand strength and our ability to create and manage the marketplace.

[Operator:]

Your next question will come from the line of Robbie Ohmes with Bank of America.

[Robert F. Ohmes:]

I was hoping that you could give a little more detail on China and I guess, can you just give us a picture of the slowdown going over there. Is it just everything is slowing or is it your partners, and you have decided we need to slow our door growth, and that's impacting the futures orders? Is it Tier 1 is performing differently than Tier 2, 3, 4? Can you just sort of give us maybe more color on what's going on over there since we all don't get to get over there probably as much as we would like? And then I have a follow-up question.

[Charles D. Denson:]

Robert, this is Charlie. So it's all of the above. And a little bit -- and what I would say is, and we've talked a lot about this, both internally and externally. I -- the good news is that the China business and the China market continues to grow. We knew that it was going to hit a bump in the road somewhere along the way. It got here maybe a little bit faster than we thought because of the growth that we've experienced and so we feel great about, as Mark said, the brand position, our connection with the consumers. I went through 3 different things that we're really focusing on as we navigate our way through this period

[Robert F. Ohmes:]

Is it more Apparel than Footwear, or is it balanced?

[Charles D. Denson:]

Well, our Footwear business is still strong. We have seen a little bit more of an impact in Apparel. We've had some sizing issues that we are in the process of fixing, which we believe will enhance the -- our ability to move through Apparel. And then I think the other thing in -- I think in honesty, we -- the category offense has got us out in front of a lot of things, but I think we're still building a category consumer in China. And I think that the ability to continue to be brand-loyal first and a NIKE consumer and then start to differentiate and segment with the category offense will come over time. And we -- and it may be just a little bit before its time in the China marketplace right now which is really, if you look back through where we've been and how we created some of our Apparel inventory issues, it's really coming out of trying to execute the category offense maybe a little bit too bullish or aggressive in a marketplace with that consumer.

[Mark G. Parker:]

This is Mark. I'll add that Charlie pointed out product branded distribution, and those are the levers that we're pulling. And I'd say that we are much more sophisticated in our ability to manage those levers than we have been in our history in China. And so we're really dialing down on all of those opportunities over this next year. And again, I think we're very confident that we're going to see a return to some fairly robust growth here in China. Just working through this next fiscal year is going to be a bit of a transition.

[Robert F. Ohmes:]

And just lastly, can you just comment on the Basketball outlook in North America? It looks like it's upticking with your key retailers here. We're heading into back-to-school, and it -- and can you just comment on your feeling on that? And then also if that is happening, why wouldn't that also play out for you pretty favorably in China as you head into the fall season?

[Mark G. Parker:]

I'll start with our excitement around Basketball in North America, which is extremely high, seeing LeBron get his first ring and all the things that came with it. It's the most-viewed NBA Finals, I think, in history. I think with Kevin Durant, who's also a Nike athlete, LeBron, Dwayne Wade, everybody that was involved in that has given us great confidence. Now as we move into that -- the next phase of storytelling, the U.S. Basketball team and moving into the Olympics in London will continue to fuel some of that excitement. And I agree, I think that will translate into a very strong brand position in China. We've talked for years how important Basketball is to the Chinese consumer, whether it's with the NIKE Brand or the Jordan Brand. And I think that we'll continue to see that excitement translate into the China business as well.

[Operator:]

Your next question will come from the line of Jim Duffy with Stifel, Nicolaus.

[Jim Duffy:]

A couple of questions. One is the balance of the futures across the window. I was hoping you could speak to that, and I'm wondering if you saw any meaningful cancellation of futures from the numbers out of the third quarter.

[Donald W. Blair:]

Answer is they're stronger in the front half of the window than the back half, reflecting a couple of factors. You've got Olympics, you've got NFL and some other factors driving some of that first quarter versus second quarter growth. And the answer on cancellation is no, we haven't seen a meaningful move on that.

[Jim Duffy:]

And then could you speak to the nature of the digital investments that you're making that have impacted the gross margins? And when that may run its course or you begin to see leverage there?

[Donald W. Blair:]

Well first of all, it's going to be a couple of things. It's going to be research and development but also as we commercialize new products, a lot of the costs of ramping up production are going to go through our gross margin. And so part of this is a scale question. We are at this point at the front end of some of these technologies and some of these businesses, so we're investing at this stage to ramp up both the technology as well as the production on it and so just like any other new product, margins tend to improve over time.

[Jim Duffy:]

Okay. And Don, those investments were incremental to what you'd expected when you talked about the plan coming out of the third quarter?

[Donald W. Blair:]

Yes. It's really a question of timing on this but yes, the products have really taken off. We've taken some decisions to add capacity. And we've really been building on the success of those launches.

[Operator:]

Your next question will come from the line of Omar Saad with ISI Group.

[Omar Saad:]

First, wanted to kind of follow up on a comment Mark made in his prepared remarks about the nature of the industry really being driven by competition. Can you kind of put into context price competition in the industry? Are you seeing that change over time from the competitive landscape or is it -- it may be different in certain markets or certain categories as you look at the competitive landscape and how some of the players may or may not be using price?

[Mark G. Parker:]

Well, we -- one factor that we have never seen really change is the appetite for meaningful innovation and premium product. And it's always been our position is that it really starts with the performance of the product, the strength of the product. And that's why we've driven such a high share of our product revenue in sales in the premium and performance price channels or price ranges. And again, we think that'll continue. That's one of the benefits of having a really strong brand and such a focus on the innovation side of the business. That said, there is an appetite, I think, for a good level product as well around the world. But we're not seeing a market change in that condition overall. It's pretty much stayed the same, I think, throughout this period. We haven't seen a real downward pressure on our premium level of product. But it's all dependent on how strong that level of product is and how well we deliver that innovation.

[Donald W. Blair:]

Yes, I would just add on top of that a little bit because I think you're talking about price discounting and are we seeing some of the pricing pressures through some of the discounting from some of the competition. And again, I think in times like this, price value is going to be challenged, and if you can't deliver the value, which we feel very confident that we're able to do and it speaks back to what Mark said about innovation, then I think some of the following players may shake out a little bit, but I think the consumer is going to vote on that.

[Mark G. Parker:]

Yes. I mean to be clear, innovation really takes place at all price points, good, better and best. And that remains our focus is making sure that we get that price-value relationship as strong as possible.

[Omar Saad:]

Got you. And then any update on the Flyknit launch upcoming? Are you adding capacity there, given what could be a strong potential demand for that new product?

[Mark G. Parker:]

Yes, I see the -- demand for Flyknit is actually quite strong. It is another one of those areas where we're investing to increase our capacity and catch up with the demand, which is very strong. Right now we're selling every pair of Flyknit shoes we can make.

[Donald W. Blair:]

We do have some capacity restraints early and because the demand has been so strong.

[Mark G. Parker:]

So there's a ramp-up period to catch up with demand that we're also seeing with the FuelBand, for example. Two incredibly innovative new products involving new technology, so there's a bit of a ramp-up that is costing a bit of time and money. But Flyknit, I continue to be -- we continue be incredibly bullish on the impact that Flyknit will have not only from a performance standpoint, but revolutionizing how we manufacture product as well.

[Donald W. Blair:]

And I want to just align this with conversations we've been having about Lunar. Lunar was a brand-new technology launched at the 2008 Beijing Olympics and now it's about a $2 billion business at retail. This is another example here with Flyknit, FuelBand; these are technologies we launched around these global events and then we build them over time into multiple categories and much bigger commercial businesses.

[Operator:]

Your next question will come from the line of Joseph Parkhill with Morgan Stanley.

[Joseph Parkhill:]

I was just -- I know you've talked about China a lot today already, but I just wanted to ask a little bit about profitability and how you're expecting that region to come out over the next year. And then is some of the recovery -- you repositioning Apparel towards more performance, and how long do you think that type of initiative is actually going to take?

[Mark G. Parker:]

Well I think with respect to profitability, I mean we believe that we're going to continue to develop that market profitably, meaning that we're going to continue to drive more velocity through our retail network, both the one we own and the one that we partner with others. We do believe there's an opportunity to, as Charlie said, expand performance product. And so we do think there's a lot of levers. So we think the growth will definitely be profitable growth.

[Donald W. Blair:]

Yes, and I'll just chime in again on the positioning and the product side of things. I think as we've talked about it and as we will continue to talk about this -- the amplified sport positioning, which is really establishing the premium performance positioning in the marketplace, which I think speaks to the brand and the history of the brand, the legacy of the brand, and then it's really combining that with the increased capacity and capabilities around our ability to take advantage of Lifestyle and Sportswear and it's that full-time relationship with the athlete, whether they're competing, whether they're training or actually whether they're just expressing themselves. And it's something we feel very confident and, quite frankly, very excited about, our ability as a brand to do something that really no other brand can do across a spectrum of product, price points and marketplaces around the world. So it really captures what we think the overall potential of the brand really represents.

[Mark G. Parker:]

On your question on profitability, we are working more closely with our retail partners in China, as I said before, to enhance their profitability through merchandising mix of product flow, assortment planning, focus on key items and concepts. These are things that I think we're tightening up in terms of our relationship with those partners, and I think that'll enhance their profitability and ours at the same time.

[Joseph Parkhill:]

Okay. So I mean in the outgoing year, it's going to be profitable, of course, but margins, given lower revenue growth, might be under a little bit of pressure. Is that the right way to think about it or you're not going to guide towards the region?

[Mark G. Parker:]

Well, I mean there -- when the revenue growth slows down, there's a small amount of deleverage you might see in the supply chain, but that's not the biggest driver of margins.

[Operator:]

Your final question will come from the line of Taposh Bari with Jefferies & Company.

[Taposh Bari:]

I was hoping you can comment on North American Apparel business? Up 8% seems like a little bit of a deceleration from the prior trend, if you can just provide any more commentary on that.

[Charles D. Denson:]

I think -- this is Charlie. I think we're still very bullish and obviously, as you see the NFL stuff kick in, you're going to see that number continue to be a pretty solid number from us. I don't want to talk about what specifics are, but we're -- I think our Apparel number is one of the growth levers that we have talked about in the past. We feel very good about the progress we're making in pulling that lever. And I think the U.S. Apparel opportunity continues to be quite strong for us here in North America.

[Taposh Bari:]

Okay. And then I wanted to ask Don just a follow-up question on the gross margins in the quarter. That $24 million restructuring fee, was that in your initial guidance when you guided to 100 basis points of compression?

[Donald W. Blair:]

That is not in the gross margin line. So that restructuring charge is on the other income and expense line. So the 2 items that we discussed that were part of margins were digital investment as well as the customs assessment for the 4 previous fiscal years, both -- neither of which was in the guidance that we gave 90 days ago.

[Taposh Bari:]

Great. And then just last question I wanted to ask for the other income line, how should we be modeling that line item for fiscal '13?

[Donald W. Blair:]

The one thing to bear in mind is that line item includes a lot of currency impact. It's essentially items related to conversion gains and losses that affect the balance sheet as well as some hedging results. So we would expect to see a little bit of income in the first quarter and then not really significantly material items for the rest of the year.

[Kelley Hall:]

Thank you, everyone, for joining us for our year-end call, and we'll look forward to talking to you next quarter.

[Operator:]

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's conference. Thank you, all, for joining, and you may now disconnect.