NN, Inc.
Q4 2012 Earnings Call Transcript

Published: 11 Mar 2013

[Operator:]

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the NN Inc. Fourth Quarter 2012 Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] This conference is being recorded today, March 11, 2013. I would now like to turn the conference over to Marilynn Meek. Please go ahead, ma'am.

[Marilyn Meek:]

Thank you, and good morning. Welcome to NN's conference call today. If anyone needs a copy of the press release, please call my office at [phone], and we will be happy to send you a copy. Before we begin, we ask that you take note of the cautionary language regarding forward-looking statements contained in today's press release. The same language applies to the comments made on today's conference call and live webcast available at www.earnings.com. With us this morning is Rock Baty, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and members of NN's management team. First, management will give an update and an overview of the quarter and then afterwards, we'll open up the lines for questions. With that said, Rock, I'll turn the call over to you.

[Roderick R. Baty:]

Thank you, Marilyn, good morning, everybody, and thanks for joining the call this morning. With me this morning in Johnson City, I have Jim Dorton, our Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Will Kelly, our Vice President and Chief Administrative Officer; Tom Burwell, our VP and Chief Accounting Officer; and Dan Brown, our Corporate Manager of Level 3. Today, Jim will offer an analysis and commentary on the fourth quarter and full year results through December 31, 2012, and then I'll conclude the call with additional comments regarding 2012 performance, as well as provide our revenue outlook for 2013. With that I'll turn the call over to Jim.

[James H. Dorton:]

Thanks, Rock, and good morning, everyone. Well, we had a lot going on in addition to our normal business during the fourth quarter, and I'll cover all of those accounting activities that we are considering to be nonoperating entries after I recap the financial results of the fourth quarter and the year. Q4 continued the basic story that we've seen most of this year

[Roderick R. Baty:]

Thanks, Jim. I'll begin with general comments on 2012 for the full year. During 2012, net income of $19.1 million and EPS of $1.12 from normal operations, as Jim mentioned, represents record results for NN as a company. These record net income and EPS results were achieved in spite of the $54.6 million drop Jim mentioned or 12.9% from 2011. The ongoing recession in Europe and secondarily, low growth in China, along with destocking of inventories throughout the entire supply chain, led to the revenue reductions that were very significant during 2012. Given the direct dramatic revenue reduction, the fact that our gross profit margins improved 2.2% from 18.1% in 2011 to 20.3% in 2012 speaks volumes to our post-2009 global recession improved structure and improved earnings capabilities. The margin improvement was achieved as a result of 3 very important factors

[Operator:]

[Operator Instructions] And our first question is from the line of Ross DeMont with Midwood Capital.

[Ross D. DeMont:]

Talking a little bit about destocking, can you remind us what the sales impact of destocking was in 2012?

[Roderick R. Baty:]

We're sitting here looking at each other because we absolutely don't know the absolute number relative to out of the total reduction in revenue that we experienced in Europe. But we've said it's somewhere between 6% to 10% of the total drop that we experienced in Europe.

[Ross D. DeMont:]

Okay. Got it. So I mean, because I was listening to your largest customers at SKF's conference call, and they made it sound like they're going to align production and inventory levels with sales levels suggesting that we might sort of be beyond this destocking problem. But I guess, your point is you're just being somewhat conservative.

[Roderick R. Baty:]

That's exactly right, Ross. I mean, of course, we've heard and talked to SKF and heard the same things, but the -- coming off the fourth quarter and in terms of when we were actually developing our business plan back in October, November and the revenue guidance that we provided in the release this morning, we just felt like it was prudent to say, okay, well, if it continues at the same level of reduction, what would our revenue look like. But and I said it in my comments just now, I mean, we are seeing for January, February and then our March forecast -- January, February actual results and March forecast -- forecasted, we're seeing some improvement.

[Ross D. DeMont:]

Okay. Fair enough. And then if we did the same revenue level in '13 as we did in '12, say, the midpoint of guidance, so the $370 million, would we likely have the same EBITDA margins? Or do we have enough lift from Whirlaway or something that we'd have better EBITDA margins in '13?

[Roderick R. Baty:]

I would say about the same to slightly improved, and that would go for gross profit margins, too.

[Operator:]

And our next question is from the line of Steve Barger with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

[Tejas Patel:]

This is actually Tejas sitting in for Steve. I think the last question kind of got to this, and I think you kind of already answered it. But I guess to get a step further with the whole SKF event, what's the longer-term strategy on the customer diversification there?

[Roderick R. Baty:]

Well, I think the question is a good one, and of course, we, in our strategic, 3-year strategic business plan have stated objectives to reduce dependency upon SKF in terms of a percent of total revenue. But that's not by losing share at SKF. Rather, it's by growing our business in non-SKF business -- related business in both our Metal Bearing Components business, as well as growing further organically Precision Metal Components, Whirlaway, both organically and via acquisition. So if we look at -- by 2015, if we execute like we think we can, that SKF total percent of revenue would go well below 30% down to 25%, I believe, is the objective. As we did -- if you look at it since the Whirlaway acquisition and the growth of Whirlaway is well organically, that number has consistently come down the last 4 years.

[Tejas Patel:]

And just out of curiosity, what was the Whirlaway impact on the quarter?

[Roderick R. Baty:]

In what regard? We don't talk segment in the press release until our -- we file our K. We don't talk segment results until we file our K.

[Tejas Patel:]

Okay. No, understood. And then just with regards to free cash flow and CapEx, longer term, what's a more normalized CapEx number that is more the sustainability and not the growth side?

[James H. Dorton:]

We think normally, this year is a good example. We have a -- $8 million of our $17 million budget is based on cost improvement and maintenance, and that's probably a pretty good run, a little bit more than half of our depreciation level.

[Tejas Patel:]

Okay. And then would you -- I think you kind of touched on the EBITDA as a percent of sales, and then historically, it looks like 12% is about where it's been. Going forward, you kind of mentioned, it'd be about the same but in a more normal environment where you don't have the impacts of destocking. Could that go up back to the 14%, 15%, 16% range we saw in the early 2000s?

[Roderick R. Baty:]

Yes. Yes. The previous question, of course, was 2013 and...

[Tejas Patel:]

Right, right.

[Roderick R. Baty:]

Yes. In terms of revenue. But the answer to that, of course, is, yes. We would expect EBITDA margin improvement as revenues come back.

[James H. Dorton:]

And if you -- just to take that a little bit further, we're off $50 million or so in revenue. If that revenue came back, we don't really have to add any fixed cost for that. So it's just the marginal costs. So if you bring that $50 million back at -- $50 million plus back at 30% kind of drop-down margins, then you're going to see a really big pickup. That's where the real earnings leverage here is.

[Tejas Patel:]

And then, I guess, to just take it a step further, then you would expect the free cash flow to also take a step-up given the CapEx is at a similar level to FY '12 then, right?

[Roderick R. Baty:]

That would be correct, of course, if we'd fund the working capital on the way back up, too.

[Tejas Patel:]

Got it. And then just with regards to your guidance for '13, I mean, you're assuming weak Europe, which is probably fair at this point and no restocking, which is likely conservative, which, again, is probably a good measure on your part. But what's the guidance assuming for Asia and automotive more specifically?

[Roderick R. Baty:]

Pretty flat. I mean, a little bit of slight improvement in Asia but pretty flat was our original assumptions going back to November when we built the plant [ph] .

[Tejas Patel:]

Okay. And just last question with regards to that guidance for '13, historically, it looks like revenue and earnings have both been more one half favored than the second half. Would you say that still applies to '13? Or do you think the potential of restocking could change that?

[Roderick R. Baty:]

I mean, it has the potential of changing it, but if you do look at the first half versus the second half, historically, you could look at it and say there's nothing out there that says it'll be any different this year.

[Operator:]

And our next question is from the line of Keith Maher with Singular Research.

[Keith Maher:]

Just kind of continuing on talking about the margins, just so I understand if I'm interpreting this right. It sounds like mid-margin improvement if we get it, going forward is going to come more from just better fixed cost absorption and that some of your ongoing cost improvement programs, have they kind of run their course, I mean, that you can't do much more there? Or am I...

[Roderick R. Baty:]

I've got a Dan Brown, our Corporate Level 3 Manager, sitting right here this morning, and of course, he would say and the rest of the organization would say no, Level 3, we want to continue to deliver really good results. There's no indication that, that program is going to not deliver relative -- maybe a slightly reduced level than '13 versus '12 but can deliver what we've been delivering since we -- the inception of the program dating back to 2005. And of course, much of that offsets a whole lot of cost issues in our -- inflationary cost issues and other things that you don't necessarily see a margin improvement year-over-year. But in the absence of it, you'd see margin degradation. So the answer to your question is, yes, we would expect the margins to hold -- the improved margins from '13 -- from '12 versus '11 to hold, slightly improve. But as the absorption of the other costs on the revenue side as revenue picks up, we expect to see margin improvement and real earnings leverage, as Jim mentioned, in terms of what it would mean.

[Keith Maher:]

All right. That was definitely helpful. With regard to -- I think, your guidance was $15 million to $20 million, and I think that was free cash flow in 2013? Is that correct, taking out CapEx and working capital investment?

[Roderick R. Baty:]

Yes.

[Keith Maher:]

So would that -- is the thought then that, that would -- that's how you would pay for acquisitions if you were going to make them next year?

[James H. Dorton:]

Well, we -- our debt-to-cap ratio now is down close to 1 level or getting down there close to 1, so we have a lot of borrowing capacity if we need to borrow. But yes, the free cash flow would -- if we made an acquisition would first go to that and then bank borrowing conservatively, but we would use that net.

[Keith Maher:]

Okay. So I mean -- but that would only go up at this point if need be to make an acquisition, it sounds like.

[James H. Dorton:]

That's right. Yes.

[Keith Maher:]

And in terms of -- is that -- I didn't want to cut you off.

[James H. Dorton:]

No, I'm finished. We're good.

[Keith Maher:]

All right. In terms of your shareholder value actions, it sounds like you're favoring potentially restarting the dividend. Is that over any share repurchases? Or is that kind of in addition to that?

[Roderick R. Baty:]

We favor and I think, at the board level, favor a dividend in the immediate future versus a share buyback but would not rule out both moving forward. I mean, frankly, when we look at our multiples and the valuation placed on NN buying back stock, our stock, in our opinion, is very inexpensive versus our underlying earnings. So I wouldn't rule out stock buybacks moving forward, but in terms of the immediacy of 2013, I think the board would say that our reinstatement of the dividend would probably be the first priority. And we base that on -- we, Jim and I both, in the last 4 to 5 months of 2012, spent a great deal of time in 4 to 5 different cities talking to existing shareholders, as well as potential shareholders in those 4 to 5 cities that we hit in the last 5 months of 2012. And I don't want to say that the consensus in asking existing shareholders was dividend versus share buyback, what do you think, most of them, the vast majority, however, favored dividend over share buyback.

[Keith Maher:]

Okay. And I guess the final question is would you be filing the 10-K this week? Or do you have a time frame for that?

[James H. Dorton:]

It's due next Tuesday and we'll -- due Monday and we'll try to follow on Friday.

[Operator:]

And our next question is from the line of John Cooper with BB&T Capital Markets.

[John C. Cooper:]

Quick question here on the inventory level, I know last quarter, I think, you were ramping from Whirlaway build and trying to get ready seasonally for that. But we saw another tick down in the top line and inventory stayed relatively flat. Are you still kind of the building revenues there at Whirlaway, which is maybe offsetting, masking some of the declines in inventories in the Metal Bearings bit?

[Thomas C. Burwell:]

John, it's Tom Burwell. Yes, you are correct, but we have seen the reductions in other places offset by the increases in Whirlaway, which is a normal part of their business to be ready for this seasonally adjusted higher sales in Q1 and Q2. And in addition to that, they built some additional stock for the new customer that they didn't have on hand at the end of last year that they would be better able to quickly service the new sales program that they added over the course of 2011. So those 2 things are both for customer service reasons to meet higher seasonal demand.

[Roderick R. Baty:]

I also think we had a little bit of build due -- in the U.S. due to this kind of last minute, I won't call them shutdowns but last minute business declines from the U.S. automotive. U.S. automotive plants, a lot of them and some of the Tier 1 suppliers, took an extra week out in December and surprised us, so we ended up with an extra week of inventory that we're going to ship out this year.

[John C. Cooper:]

Got you. So that's something -- I mean, it doesn't sound like it's too meaningful of a bit, but it sounds like it'd probably hit in Q1 of '13 then or you're going to have to write line that just for a little bit?

[Thomas C. Burwell:]

Yes. We'll be in a position to capture incremental sales without incurring extra starting [ph] costs and overtime costs and those sort of things.

[John C. Cooper:]

Got you. Okay. And then maybe if you can give maybe a little bit of sense of what your guys' expectations are in terms of your pricing environment in 2013? I mean, it seems like it's going to be relatively a difficult environment. Is pricing something that you're expecting to be relatively flat for '13?

[Roderick R. Baty:]

Yes. John, we -- our business plan and in fact, moving forward into 2013, our expectations and in reality what's happening in the marketplace are for flat pricing for the full year. And you touched on it. I mean, it's an environment that, in terms of raising prices, very difficult on the basis of our customers are suffering right along with us in terms of especially the downturns in Europe, the recession, the continuing recession in Europe. So our commercial strategy has been to just hold prices for 2013.

[John C. Cooper:]

Got you. Okay. All right. And then, I guess, last, if you could touch on, is there anything that you guys are looking at a little more intensely in the M&A pipeline? Or how is that kind of shaping up for you guys?

[Roderick R. Baty:]

We have a pretty good pipeline, particularly in the Whirlaway/Precision Metal Components business unit that we're working diligently on. We've mentioned before that one of the things we liked about the Whirlaway acquisition was the right acquisition pool that we saw, particularly in North America. And so from an execution perspective, we're working that side of it very intensely as we speak. And so I mean, other than to say that there's lots of good candidates out there in terms of handicapping when we might do one, I'll leave that to other folks. But I mean, we certainly have a big focus on it for 2013 based on our improving balance sheet.

[Operator:]

[Operator Instructions] Our next question is from the line of Bruce Geller with DGHM.

[Bruce Howard Geller:]

In the free cash flow estimate of $15 million to $20 million, what is the implied change in working capital for the year in that number, please?

[James H. Dorton:]

It's up a little bit, but basically flat because, as Rock gave you the revenue forecast, is flattish. I think we have built in some improvement in inventory, maybe offset a little bit with just payables and receivables activity.

[Bruce Howard Geller:]

Okay. So it sounds like the free cash flow estimate, since CapEx is pretty similar to D&A for the year, it sounds like the free cash flow estimate should not differ materially from the -- what you'd be expecting in terms of earnings?.

[James H. Dorton:]

Yes. Yes, relatively same amount coming from earnings.

[Bruce Howard Geller:]

Okay. That's pretty good in light of the higher tax rate. In the cost-reduction portion of the CapEx, I think you mentioned $8 million. What would be the annualized benefit that you would expect from that? Or is that just to kind of maintain the same level of margins? Or is there an incremental benefit to the cost structure from that on a go-forward basis?

[James H. Dorton:]

I think this was what Rock was talking about earlier. We would expect to be able to take cost out of 3% -- 2% to 3% and sometimes 4% of revenue, and some of that goes to offset inflation, and some of it drops to the bottom line. So in total, maybe 1% or 2%.

[Roderick R. Baty:]

But I would just clarify a little bit by saying that our CapEx, of the $8 million that Jim mentioned, the vast majority of that -- look, Metal Bearing Components, manufacturing balls, rollers and cages in particular and then in our other businesses as well, very capital intensive. And so you -- much of our capital is what I would refer to as maintenance CapEx. Now Level 3 identifies a number of projects throughout the year that require a capital investment. Not -- the beauty of Level 3 is that not many of it is -- not many of the projects are, I've got to have capital to achieve these savings. But there is a portion of that $8 million, and call it $2 million to $3 million, that is purely associated with, I've got to have the capital to get to the savings. And so in terms of the 2% to 3% number in terms of Level 3, only 20% of that number would be contingent upon capital.

[Bruce Howard Geller:]

Okay, great. And could you just give a little more color around the CEO search. I know it's been going on for a while now. Do you have it narrowed down to a few candidates? Is it internal and external, kind of quality level of candidates you're seeing come across? I'd just be interested to hear a little bit more about that.

[Roderick R. Baty:]

Sure. The search -- a specific search committee of the board was established back in mid last year, call it June or July. And at that time, both -- I think I've mentioned publicly that there were 2 internal candidates being vetted along with an external search. And it's fair to say that the process has progressed to the point where there's a couple of finalist candidates. But -- and of course, I think the quality of both external and internal candidates is excellent, and I would say that there's -- moving forward here, as I mentioned in my comments, the Annual Shareholders' Meeting is when we would hope to have an announcement on a successor.

[Bruce Howard Geller:]

Okay, great. And last thing I'll say, just a sample size of one over here, with your stock trading below 5x EBITDA, a share repurchase would seem pretty attractive to me here even relative to a potential dividend reinstatement. I just like the thought of being able to buy stock at these levels and have the benefits spread amongst the lower share count.

[Roderick R. Baty:]

So your fault would be a share buyback versus a dividend. Is that what I'm hearing?

[Bruce Howard Geller:]

With its valuation, where it is currently, yes, I think that's attractive, and it's -- my guess is it's pretty attractive relative to most acquisitions you'd be looking at as well. I think you would -- it's probably hard in this environment today with so much money sloshing around out there to find good companies trading below 5x EBITDA. So you got a great one right in front of you.

[Roderick R. Baty:]

Your input is duly noted, and of course, our board listens to this conference call every quarter, so it's duly noted.

[Operator:]

And our next question is a follow-up from the line of Steve Barger. Tejas, I believe, is back.

[Tejas Patel:]

Just a few follow-ups. You'd talked a little bit about the debt to EBITDA and acquisitions. Just kind of wondering what sort of ROIC would you be looking for that would make you want to lean towards M&A opportunity versus further reducing debt.

[James H. Dorton:]

Well, the main thing we'd look for is accretive to our returns like ROIC with an IRR that would exceed our cost of capital. So that would be the goal, and we'd also look for earnings accretion right off the bat as well. And with that said, we are trying to find -- we're not focusing on more commodity -- on commodity automotive kind of businesses. We're looking at in different markets where we hope we can get some of those higher margins of what to pay for them. But anyway, so I can't -- I don't think we’re going to give out the specific numbers as to what it is, but we're going to look for accretion on all those levels.

[Tejas Patel:]

Okay. And just unrelated question with regards to destocking, just kind of curious as to if you have any insight on just the channel inventory on average in Asia versus North America. Just trying to get a gauge of if Asian markets tend to keep a larger or smaller inventory versus the U.S.

[James H. Dorton:]

No. We don't really have an across-the-board way to answer that. It really varies by customer and situation.

[Operator:]

[Operator Instructions] I'm showing no further questions. I'll turn the call back to management for closing remarks.

[Roderick R. Baty:]

Okay. I'd like to conclude today's call with just a general comment that even with the uncertainty in the economic outlook I mentioned previously, we really do believe at NN that we're well positioned to deliver good earnings and cash flow for 2013. Our strategy execution initiative during the year, this upcoming year, should further our long-term growth prospects for each of our 3 business units both organically and acquisitively, Metal Bearing Components, Rubber and Plastics and Precision Metal Components. Thank you again for listening in on today's call.

[Operator:]

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our conference for today. If you'd like to listen to a replay of today's call, it will be available until midnight, March 18 by dialing [phone] or 1 [phone] with the access code of 4594581. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.