Nomad Foods Limited
Q4 2020 Earnings Call Transcript

Published: 28 Feb 2021

[Operator:]

Good day, and welcome to Nomad Foods Fourth Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. . Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to Taposh Bari, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

[Taposh Bari:]

Thank you for joining us to review our fourth quarter 2020 earnings results. With me on the call today are Chief Executive Officer, Stefan Descheemaeker; and Chief Financial Officer, Samy Zekhout. Before we begin, I would like to draw your attention to the disclaimer on Slide 2 of our presentation.

[Stefan Descheemaeker:]

Thank you, Taposh, and thank you all for your participation on the call today. I hope you and you loved ones continue to stay safe during these unprecedented times. It has been nearly a full year since our lives changed following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. At Nomad, our entire organization has risen to the challenge of supplying Europe with our iconic brands while ensuring the health and safety of our employees. As you may have seen, we reported our fourth quarter and full year 2020 results this morning. Consistent with our announcement at CAGNY last week, we ended the year on a very strong note with Q4 results ahead of our prior expectations across all key metrics. Here are the headlines for the fourth quarter; organic revenue growth of 9.5% driven by an 8.6% increase in volume and mix and a 0.9% increase in price. We achieved 160 basis points of gross margin expansion to 31.5%, marking our strongest quarterly gross margin rate in over two years. Adjusted EBITDA of €119 million and adjusted EPS growth of 19% to €0.38 per share. Here you see the financial highlights for the full year 2020. For illustrative purposes, we're showing these figures in both euros and U.S. dollars, the currency in which our stock trades. Overall, an incredible year of performance as we completed our fourth consecutive year of organic revenue, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS growth.

[Samy Zekhout:]

Thank you, Stefan, and thank you all for your participation on the call today. Turning to Slide 8. I will provide more detail on our key fourth quarter operating metrics, beginning with revenues, which increased 4.7% to €658 million, driven by 9.5% organic revenue growth. As expected, this was offset by 3.2% relating to a calendar shift and 1.6% of foreign exchange translation. Organic revenue growth exceeded our prior expectations and was once again driven by our branded retail portfolio, which grew 12% during the fourth quarter. Growth continues to be most pronounced within our core products, namely fish fingers and coated fish, where demand is particularly robust. Strong growth in our branded retail business was offset by our non-branded channels, which represent approximately 10% of sales. Specifically, we experienced mid single digit growth in private label sales and nearly 30% declines in food service due to the impact of restricted movements across Europe.

[Operator:]

Thank you. We will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. . Thank you. Our first question comes from Andrew Olsen with UBS. Please proceed with your question.

[Andrew Olsen:]

Hi. Good morning, guys.

[Stefan Descheemaeker:]

Good morning, Andrew.

[Samy Zekhout:]

Good morning.

[Andrew Olsen:]

Hi. Good morning. I just wanted to dig more a little bit into the drivers of the top line, the organic sales guidance that you gave at CAGNY and are reiterating again today. Where do you have the most confidence in that guide? And how much does it depend on maintaining some of the COVID gains that you had in 2020? Just trying to think through kind of the underlying growth of the base business versus maintaining some of the lapping effects. Thanks.

[Stefan Descheemaeker:]

Okay. Let me take that one, Andrew. Let me stand back a bit first. I think where we're quite different is that when you see a bit of our journey before COVID, we had the three consecutive years of growth, and it doesn't come by chance. I think we worked a lot on our brands, we worked a lot on our business model and it paid off. And then obviously came COVID one year and obviously we grew nicely, like many other people. But very importantly as well, we've also reinvested, as you know, another 10 million at the end of the year, which obviously serves us well for the beginning of this year and later. So that's a bit of what we have accomplished over the last years. I think where we are quite different is we have just fantastic categories. When you think about fish, which is 40% of our business, nice margin; vegetable, which is 20%; plant protein up and coming; and then in frozen food, which is doing very well now and obviously beyond, it's obviously a natural tailwind. They're all growing, which is very nice. Then you have COVID, obviously, which gave opportunity to all these people, new consumers, millions of consumers to try. That's why by the way we invested behind retention, which was very important. You remember, that's a kind of program we put together last year. We announced this year, we explain why we're doing this, and we see the results. And that's very nice. Then on top of that, obviously, you have Green Cuisine, which has also moved from 0 to 30 million in less than two years. And as you know, we have the plan to increase up to 100 million or beyond the 100 million in the next two years. So with all these things on top, obviously, of the plan that we put together business model, yes, we believe that 2021, we're going to grow by 1% to 2%. It's obviously ambitious because it's on top of 8.5%, but that's the cultural organization we're delivering. And I think we have the best plans we ever had. So that's why we think we will be going to make it work. And then beyond 2021, I would put it that way. We think, again, that with all the things we have, the growth is only starting. So we know what we have ahead of us in 2021 and beyond, and we're very excited with this. And then obviously, we also have things that are coming like Switzerland that we just completed end of last year, obviously, Fortenova is an option, obviously, that we -- as we announced, it's an interesting plan also in the back end. So a lot of good things between, let's say, the natural growth of our must-win battles, as we say, Green Cuisine and also, obviously, a very focused M&A plan behind frozen foods. So that's all the reasons.

[Andrew Olsen:]

Okay, great. Thanks. And then just as a follow-up, just specifically on the marketing spend. It was good to see that 30% increase come through in 4Q, which brings a high single-digit for the year in terms of that advertising line. How do you think through your kind of overall marketing levels? Do you think that you'll have to increase even further to support Findus Switzerland?

[Stefan Descheemaeker:]

Samy?

[Samy Zekhout:]

Yes. Sorry. Excuse me, I was on mute. SG&A will be about flat year-on-year in 2021. So we have upped the game in 2020 for the reason that we have mentioned, investing behind the Green Cuisine, must-win battles, which we know are paying off. And the other piece, which was important for us to protecting behind retention, as we have mentioned. But we -- clearly, the intent is to continue to invest behind our brands. We have strong plans behind the core business and behind Switzerland, and we always try to balance, secure the need for supporting the brands and driving the appropriate ROI on investments we're making in advertising for sure.

[Andrew Olsen:]

Perfect. Thanks, guys.

[Operator:]

Thank you. Our next question comes from Jon Tanwanteng with CJS Securities. Please proceed with your question.

[Peter Lukas:]

Hi. Good morning. It's Pete Lukas for Jon. Just how have industry and trade negotiations progressed so far this year in terms of pricing, shelf space and promotions, any meaningful difference? And also, any meaningful difference you're seeing between trends on the continent and the UK, given all the dysfunction that we've seen with Brexit and various different lockdowns?

[Stefan Descheemaeker:]

Listen, it's a good question, the Brexit. Let me handle the Brexit first because it's been our favorite topic for, well, so many years. So the good news is it’s behind us. We’re still more than ever in a tax-free zone between Europe and UK, which is great. We always said it's great for us. That's the best result. And quite frankly, I can tell you when the deal was announced on December 24, it was a very nice gift. Is it perfectly smooth at this stage? No, you can imagine you have obviously some logistic issues here and there, which makes it a little complicated. But as we've been extremely well prepared, we know that it's going to be fine. So that's a big thing for us, Brexit, and we're so pleased -- by the way, we can also think about doing more productive things, more interesting things than just playing defense with Brexit, which is absolutely great. Then back to your question about the negotiations. Well, let's say, negotiation with the trade is negotiation with the trade. It's not going to change. Sometimes you have a bit more inflation. Sometimes you have a bit less inflation. This year, we have a bit less inflation, which I would say ultimately make things a bit easier. So I don't think there is anything specific compared to previous years that are worth mentioning. Obviously, we need to deliver. We also said last year that it was a year of high demand. It's still a year of high demand, which makes, to some extent, that piece of the conversation with the trade a bit easier. And yes, that's where we stand. I think our conversation with the trade is all about brand building, about their trade margin, which is overall in good shape as well. So nothing specific to mention and no real difference between UK and Europe.

[Peter Lukas:]

Helpful. Thanks. And just one more for me. Can you talk about synergy and accretion potential from Findus Switzerland? Do you think you realized most of that this year or do you think it will be a longer-term process as you exit '21?

[Samy Zekhout:]

We're just going to be -- if you're completing the year one transition as we get into that visibility start of the time of year now. We have the year one investment always with, let's say, that is playing for us in terms of planting the seed. So if you think about the playbook that we have been applying in the past for our base here or Goodfella’s, which has been working really well when you look frankly at how the business is doing today. If we apply simply our playbook around, frankly, where we are clearly having a strong competitive advantage, the focus on the must-win battles, clearly the extra thing that we can give to our top line through NRM, the focus on our cost and we will actively drive the synergy that we have planned for in the years to come. So clearly, the plan is on track. And clearly, the economics have been, let's say, put together in that context.

[Peter Lukas:]

Great.

[Stefan Descheemaeker:]

It's very much in line with what we've been doing, to your point Samy, with Goodfella’s and Aunt Bessie’s. First, investment behind sometimes assets that are a bit of open assets underinvested, and we're starting with that, which is I think in the long term is the right thing to do.

[Peter Lukas:]

Great. Thanks. I’ll jump back in the queue.

[Stefan Descheemaeker:]

Thank you.

[Operator:]

. Thank you. Our next question comes from Bill Chappell with SunTrust. Please proceed with your questions.

[William Chappell:]

Thanks. Good morning.

[Stefan Descheemaeker:]

Good morning, Bill.

[William Chappell:]

Just want to talk about kind of the surging demand for frozen in kind of the end of the year. And also what has it done for other categories? I remember three, four years ago, one of the thoughts from Nomad was to move into breakfast items, and that didn't really work so well because Europeans didn't particularly like frozen breakfast items, they like fresh. So I’m kind of wondering if that's changed as people have been locked down and accelerated and whether there -- maybe it opens up other categories within frozen for you to expand as we've kind of had behavioral change over the past 12 months?

[Stefan Descheemaeker:]

Yes. It's a very good question, Bill, but it comes back to the very essence of our strategy, which is about resource allocation and where we want to play in frozen food. And hence you know our definition of must-win battles. Must-win battles are our core categories, our categories where we have leadership, we have good margin and we have growth potential. And back to this breakfast question, I think it would have taken ages and take so much resources to get there that it didn't make any sense, and it wouldn't serve the other categories well. That's why we've gone to these core categories that we're calling must-win battles. I can tell you, they're doing extremely well year in, year out, and it's mostly in fish, in vegetable and then in some local categories, obviously, like, for example, pizza with Goodfella's or other categories in local categories. And we're not going to deviate from there. So we need market share. We need growth potential and we need gross margin. So that's that. But besides that, we remain also extremely focused behind frozen. As we know, last year we've just confirmed that frozen is where we are, where we are winning and where we want to play. And we are the leaders. And by the way, it's an extremely good category for a variety of reasons between, let's say, obviously, good for your health, good for the planet, combined with categories like fish, vegetables or plant protein, on top of also e-commerce that is doing well. So we definitely believe that it would be just a mistake today to move away from this combination of focus behind frozen and within frozen behind must-win battles, including, obviously, Green Cuisine. It serves us well. We have a lot of tailwinds. We have developed, let's say, our modus operandi of our business model for the existing business and also for the business we want to acquire within, obviously, the same frozen food category.

[William Chappell:]

Got it. Thanks. I appreciate the color. And just on Green Cuisine, help me understand kind of the thought process on the marketing and advertising and that it's certainly done well, but it seems like there are a lot of competition jumping in and will be more. And so are you looking at this like we just need to build out the brand equity and grow and build brand awareness, or are we getting into a land grab where you really need to make a splash in terms of getting the brand out there before there's so much noise in the category where it will be tougher for consumers to understand it?

[Stefan Descheemaeker:]

Well, the good news, Bill, is it's -- the category in chilled and in frozen, by the way, is growing very fast. And we, as a category leader in frozen, we need to make sure that we're going to have the category to grow even faster. So that's the starting point. So how we -- and this company in the past, years and years ago, did the same with other categories, we need to do the same. First is, obviously, to make sure that we're going to grow the category. It's starting with, obviously, differentiation with the others. We believe, and that's what our consumers and the retailers are telling us, that we have a product superiority. The products are great. You know that, for example, last year or let's say, in December, we got the award of the best product -- frozen food product in the UK with our nuggets. They're great, there is a product superiority. But that's one element. The other element is, obviously, we have also superiority in terms of distribution network. We're covering -- we have a vast network across -- of food retailers across Europe. So that's another element. The third one is, to your point, we're decide, as you know, to focus a lot and to put quite a considerable amount of money behind the category, behind Green Cuisine in terms of brand building, which is also what it is. So all these elements are part of the flywheel that we have developed. The only difference is probably even more aggressive because it's a new category, and it's a category which has a lot to offer with also, by the way, very nice margin. And we're making very good progress. So that's that. But it's a big focus for us as you know.

[William Chappell:]

But you don't see it as a land grab right now? It's not a -- try to get anywhere and everywhere as fast as possible?

[Stefan Descheemaeker:]

Well, we need to make sure that people understand -- all the consumers understand what it is. So it's a white space to some extent. So that's what it is. But it's how to increase -- how to develop a new category, and we've been good at that in the past and we're going to do it again.

[William Chappell:]

Great. Thanks so much.

[Stefan Descheemaeker:]

Thank you very much.

[Operator:]

There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the floor back over to Stefan Descheemaeker for any closing comments.

[Stefan Descheemaeker:]

Thank you very much, operator. And thank you for your participation today. We're pleased to have completed our fourth consecutive year of strong financial performance, underpinned by consistent organic revenue growth and complementary M&A and share repurchases. We have a well defined playbook and a strong set of plans to continue our momentum into 2021.As you've heard me say, while we're proud of the performance that we have delivered since 2017, we strongly believe that Nomad Foods is still in the early stages of value creation. So thank you for your time and have a great day.

[Operator:]

This concludes today's program. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation, and have a wonderful day.