Overseas Shipholding Group, Inc.
Q4 2018 Earnings Call Transcript

Published: 8 Mar 2019

[Operator:]

Good morning, and welcome to the Overseas Shipholding Group Fourth Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Sam Norton, President and Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead.

[Samuel Norton:]

Thank you, Phil. Good morning, everyone, and thank you all for joining Dick Trueblood, Molly Arcia, Princeton McFarland and me for our 2018 fourth quarter earnings call. We welcome the opportunity to provide added depth and perspective to our written public disclosures and appreciate your taking the time to listen-in on this call. In our presentation today, we will be expanding on the disclosures made in similar presentations in the past, in an effort to offer more commentary on the future trajectory of our business with a greater focus on the underlying potential. Prior to beginning our review of the past quarter, I would like to direct everyone to the narrative on Pages 2 and 3 of the PowerPoint presentation available on our website regarding forward-looking statements, estimates and other information which may be provided during the course of this call. The contents of this narrative are an important part of this presentation, and I urge everyone to read and consider them carefully. We will be offering you more than just a historical perspective on OSG today, and our presentation includes forward-looking statements, including statements about anticipated future results. These statements are subject to uncertainties and risks. Actual results may differ materially from projections and could be affected by a variety of risk factors including factors beyond our control. For a discussion of these factors, we refer you specifically to our annual report on form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 2017; our form 10-Q, for the first three quarters of 2018; our form 10K, for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2018, which we anticipate being filed within the next week; and our other filings with the SEC which are available at the SEC's internet site www.sec.gov; as well as on our own website www.osg.com. Forward-looking statements in this presentation speak only as of the date of these materials, and we do not assume any obligation to update any forward-looking statements except as may be legally required for the reasons why actual results could differ. In addition, our presentation today includes certain non-GAAP financial measures which we define and reconcile the GAAP in our fourth quarter earnings release furnished at the SEC, and which is also posted on our website. Before going to the specifics of fourth quarter, I would like to briefly outline the strategic priorities that we have advanced in recent quarters. This should provide you with greater insight into our areas of focus and context for some of the specific actions that we're taking, and hopefully highlight just how far we have come to get to this point. After that, I will go into greater depth on recent developments, the market and our expectations moving forward. I refer you to Slide 5, outlining our strategic priorities, probably speaking with respect to both the income statement and balance sheet, our forward visibility for the coming year stands in marked contrast to the financial and operational uncertainty that we faced at the beginning of 2018. We've made this important progress by refinancing our debt, ensuring continuity and ongoing renewal of our fleet and earnings power and reducing our stock market exposure by successfully securing time charge for majority of our fleet throughout much of 2019, shifting utilization rates back to our core customer base. Our business is characterized by high operating leverage. This is particularly important as following the trajectory of stock market improvements within (ph) 0

[Richard Trueblood:]

Thanks Sam. Please turn to Slide 11. During the fourth quarter, we continue to see a positive spread between WTI Houston and volume pricing. This continues performance that was evident through most of 2018 and resulted in an open arbitrage. When the arb is open, this is favorable for Jones Act tankers and encourages the use of domestic crude oil in refinery operations. We saw during the year continuing increase in the number of vessels used to transport crude oil. Analysts expect this pricing differential to continue to exist over the medium term. Please turn to Slide 12. Spot rates continue to steady TCE rate increase throughout the year. They rose from the mid $30,000 level per day during the third quarter 2017 to highs in the mid to upper $60,000 per day at times during the year. Currently, spot market day rates are running around $65,000. During the third and fourth quarters, we saw reduction in spot market activity as we witness the continuing transition of the market back to its historic time charter characteristics with corresponding decreases and spot market volume. Please turn to Slide 13. As we previously commented, we believe that the supply-demand imbalance that existed during 2017, would correct itself as older vessels were removed from the market. Additionally, we believe that the market was tighter than it appeared and that seemingly small changes in demand would have a substantial impact. During 2018, there was a net reduction of six vessels, reducing the total vessels in service to 91. We expect the vessel count to continue to decrease as additional older vessels exit the market. We expect to remove two of our rebuilt ATBs from the market this year. The continued favorable spread of WTI Houston to Bonny Lights has supported an increase in the domestic use of American crude oil. This has resulted in a continued increase in vessel demand for crude oil transportation from the Gulf of Mexico to the Northeast refineries. Please turn to Slide 14. Our niche market businesses continue to provide a strong operating platform for our overall business. In 2018, we entered into a new two contract, substantially increasing the minimum barrel commitment with one of our lightering customers. During the year, our customer PES merged for bankruptcy proceedings. Our contract remained enforced throughout and after the bankruptcy period without modification. Our third customer entered into its annual contract renewal in January 2019. We have committed minimum barrels close to the annual amount actually shipped in 2018. In September 2018, the Government of Israel renewed its contract with us through 2020. The contractual minimum number of voyages remains at seven. We entered 2018 with three shuttle tankers servicing the two Gulf of Mexico FPSOs. During May, the Chinook was redelivered to us and was subsequently time chartered to another customer as a conventional tanker. The Tampa and the Cascade continue under their time charter agreements to provide shuttle tanker service. We extended the charter maturities on all line of our chartered-in congenital tankers. For those who - extensions were for one year to 2020, and the remaining five were extended for three years, bringing their maturity date to 2022. The time chartered-in vessel was previously extended until 2025. We scrapped the intrepid OSG 254 and the OSG 192 during December, further reducing the number of active rebuilt ATBs still in our fleet to four. We expect that during 2019, we'll further remove two more rebuilt ATBs from the fleet. As a result, we operated one less vessel for all in the quarter and two less vessels for part of the fourth quarter this year in comparison to the year ago period. October continued the seasonal slowdown and relatively low transportation demand that was experienced in the third quarter. However, the quarter ended with no vessels available for spot market charters. We began to realize the benefit of time charters that we entered into prior to the fourth quarter. Our time charter revenue days for conventional Jack Act tankers increased during the fourth quarter in comparison to both the year ago quarter and the prior quarter this year. In the fourth quarter, we refinanced our outstanding $380 million term loan, which was scheduled to mature in August 2019. In accordance with our plan, we obtained two term loans. The first for $27.5 million was obtained to finance our U.S. Flag nine Jobs Act vessels at Mykonos and Santorini. The loan term is eight years with interest at LIBOR plus 400 basis points. Subsequently, we entered into a $325 million term loan. This loan has a 5 year term with a 13 year amortization profile. Interest is at LIBOR plus 500 basis points. We achieved our goals to both lengthen the maturity profile of our liabilities and continue to reduce our leverage. Please turn to Slide 14. 2018 TCE revenues were $327 million compared to $361 million in the prior year, a decline of $34.3 million. More than half of this decline is attributable to the reduction in the size of our rebuilt ATB fleet and the remainder resulted from the increased spot market exposure of the Jones Act conventional tankers during the first through third quarters of 2018. For the majority of the year, we traded two fewer vessels than the prior year, and for the latter part of the fourth quarter we traded for fewer vessels. During May, the Overseas Chinook was redelivered and began to operate as conventional tanker on time charter rather than as a shuttle tanker. Further as we discussed in prior quarters, 2017 TCE revenues contained a continuing impact of higher rate legacy time charters which expired as 2017 progressed. We continued the shift to a more spot market focused business in 2018. Through the first nine months of 2018, our spot market days for Jones Act tankers ATBs and non-Jones Act tankers, increased by 528 days or 32% compared to the year ago time period. The impact in this change was particularly evident in the third quarter when there were minimal cargoes available in the spot market and the utilization levels of our spot market vessels was exceptionally low. As 2018 progressed, the expected shift to a more time chartered focused market began to assert itself at profitable rates, and the fourth quarter saw a reduction of spot market days. We ended the year with eight of our nine conventional tankers and three of our four rebuilt ATBs on time charters. For those vessels, this shifts risk of utilization away from OSG. Full year adjusted EBITDA was $87 million compared to $118.4 million in 2018. The decline principally resulted from the decrease in TCE revenues that were previously discussed. Adjusted EBITDAs declined as net income or loss adjusted for income tax expense/benefit, interest expense depreciation and amortization, gain or loss on disposal of vessels including impairments, loss on repurchases and extinguishment of debt and non-cash stock compensation expense. Please turn to Slide 15. Q4, TCE revenues were $79.9 million, a 10.8% increase from the third quarter. We experienced revenue increases on our Jones Act tankers lightering vessels and non-Jones Act tankers. Rebuilt ATB revenues were flat against the third quarter due in large parts of the sale of two ATBs during Q4. Substantial drivers of the increase were the improvements in vessels on time charter which increased the vessel utilization levels. We had two voyages for the Government of Israel and an increase in volumes listed in our lightering business. Please turn to Slide 16. Our Jones Act conventional tankers saw an increase in time charter revenue days compared to the fourth quarter of 2017. Reflect to the impact of the increased number of vessels operating under time charter. The average fixed earnings rate declined slightly to $58,833 a day to $63,163 a day as late 2017 still contained a contribution from higher rate legacy contracts. We experienced an increase in effective slots earnings from 31,397 to 32,420 in the fourth quarter of 2018. ‘ The rebuilt ATBs TCE revenues were partly flat compared to the 2018 third quarter. Total revenue days increased during the fourth quarter as the OSG 243 returned to service following repairs of the damage after the collision at the end of Q2. Lightering TCE revenues increased 14% from the 2018 third quarter to 11.8 million from 10.3 million. As revenue days returned to normal following drydock repair days we incurred during the third quarter. The average fourth quarter TCE rate was $64,400 compared to $65,000 in the third quarter. The results continue to benefit the – effect of the increased take or pay minimums. The total volume lighter to 2018 was consistent with the amounts lifted in 2017 and revenues for $46 million. The tanker’s operating in the Maritime Security Program performed two voyages during the quarter under our government of Israel contract of affreightment. We however had limited success in obtaining fuel and voyages. The effective TCE rate increased to $18,427 from $16,541. The Overseas Tampa and Overseas Cascade continue to operating its shuttle tankers. The Overseas Chinook continue to under time charter's conventional tanker which has done since the three delivery in May. Our niche market TCE revenues were 143 million in 2018 compared to 151 million in 2017. The decrease was driven by the transition of the Chinook to conventional tanker operation since May. The rest of the niche businesses performed similarly to 2017. Please turn to Slide 17, vessel operating contribution defined as TCE revenues less vessel operating expenses insight of charter hire expenses at $100.6 million was $33 million lower than 2017. The decrease resulted from a conventional tankers shifting for the full year of 2018 to increase spot market presence at lower utilization levels especially during the third quarter a reduction in the size of ATB fleet and the previously mentioned re-delivery of the Chinook. Vessel operating contribution for the fourth quarter increased to 23.5 million from the third quarter vessel operating contribution of 14.8 million. The Jones Act conventional tanker vessel operating contribution recovered from a $6.5 million loss in the third quarter to achieve a breakeven result in the fourth quarter. Please turn to Slide 18. Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA was $23.1 million compared to $10.9 million in the third quarter of 2018. The increase resulted from improved Jones Act conventional tanker performance as well as distributions from Alaskan joint venture. Quarterly adjusted EBITDA declined 1.7 million in the fourth quarter of 2017. The decrease resulted from a lower level of TCE revenues partially offset by a reduction in operating expenses. Please turn to Slide 19. Net loss for the fourth quarter was $5.2 million compared to net income of 54 million in 2017’s fourth quarter. The 2017 quarter included a $60 million tax benefit which resulted from recognizing the impact of the reduction in federal corporate income tax rate and effect on our deferred tax liability. Full year net income was 13.5 million compared to 56 million in 2017. We recognized a tax benefit of 23.4 million in the third quarter 2018 upon completion of the IRS audit of our 2012 through 2015 tax returns. We had previously reserved the beneficial effect of losses recognized in connection with the disposition of two vessels in earlier years. The audit results permitted us to recognize those tax benefits in 2018. Please turn to Slide 20. Moving from left to right, we began 2018 with total cash of $166 million including $200,000 of restricted cash. During 2018, we generated $87 million of adjusted EBITDA, working capital changes used $5 million of cash. We expended $13 million in drydock and improvements to our vessels we invested $22 million in new vessel construction. We incurred $29 million of cash interest expense and we made debt repayment net of issuance costs of $103 million. The result was we ended the year with $81 million of cash including 200,000 of restricted cash. Please turn to Slide 21. Continuing our discussion of cash and liquidity as mentioned on the previous slide we have $81 million of cash at December 31, 2018 inclusive of 200,000 of restricted cash. Our total debt was 353 million representing $103 million reduction in outstanding indebtedness since December 2017. We also have $30 million revolver which is presently undrawn. Combining undrawn revolver with cash we had $111 million of liquidity at quarter end. A $325 million term loan as an annual amortization requirement of $25 million with $329 million of equity our net debt-to-equity ratio was 0.8 times down from 0.9 times at December 31, 2017. At December 31, 2018, we had aggregate capital commitments of $152.7 million for the construction of four vessels. Two tankers scheduled for delivery in September 2019 and two barges scheduled for delivery in the second and fourth quarters of 2020. The contracts for these vessels require progress payments based on the shipyards achievement of contractual milestones during construction period with the final payment due on delivery of each vessel. OSG has made all required progress payments to-date and we will make the remaining payments including those due on delivery with financing that we will need to obtain, operating cash flow and cash on hand. We are currently in discussions with potential lenders to obtain such financing, but we have not received commitments at this time. This concludes my comments on the financial statements. I'd now like to turn the call back to Sam for his closing remarks.

[Samuel Norton:]

Thank you, Dick. The encouraging picture that we see for our future is founded on three key components of our business. First, stable and profitable platform provided by our niche market activities, second a renewed contribution from our new ATB capacity to be added during 2020. And finally, a revenue recovery late in our conventional tanker fleet that should allow the operating leverage of our business model to become manifest over the next 24 months. We have with this presentation expanded upon this disclosure practices that have characterized similar presentations in the past. We've tried to offer more commentary on the future trajectory of our business with a greater focus on our underlying future potential. We believe our business today is at an important inflection point with our prior results providing only marginally insight into our expectations for 2019 and beyond. Our decision to expand the scope of commentary was not born out of the newly acquired clairvoyance providing us unique insight into the events that have yet to unfold. History has littered with humble forecasters who had too much confidence in their ability to call the markets we would prefer not to join that list. Nevertheless, two sets of facts about our market give us heighten confidence that we are on the right track. First, is a recognition that the U.S. flag market and in particular the Jones Act market it to a large degree insulated from the height uncertainty that could be found in international markets. The barriers to entry are high, new supply is expensive to obtain, shipyards capable of providing that supply are limited as are the number of qualified companies that can operate tankers in the U.S. Coast wise trade. In this context, it is objectively easier than in the case of other shipping markets, to conceive of and believe in a market environment that can be balanced rationally and orderly for an extended period of time. The market disruption that we've experienced in recent years was born out of a sudden change in regulations governing crude oil exports. We've seen that over the past three years, a slow progression of supply rationalization and the reemergence of coast wise crude all transportation demand, have combined to restore a healthier balance in our markets. As we have noted often in our recent comments, we see this recovery as having been well established. The weight of probability indicates that the cycle has turned. Second, it's a simple math that illustrates the powerful force of the operating leverage that underpins our business model. It is true that leverage cuts both ways. But belief in our thesis that the cycle has indeed turned, leads to some very positive conclusion. The fundamentals of both supply and demand are for the first time in several years providing strong support through restoring normalized pricing dynamics in our business relationships. With all of our tankers set to com open for a reset in rates within the next 12 months and two new barges capable of restoring the revenue and cash flow streams of ATBs that will soon be phased out, the prospects for the positive effects and the operating leverage to begin to flow through our results are for cause for optimism. We anticipate the 2019 to see improved cash flow and improved financial results for OSG, with less implied volatility than 2018. The lag effect of charters fixed in 2018 will mask the rebound for a time. And re-pricing opportunities in the second-half of this year should set up 2020 to allow the full benefit of the operating leverage of our business model to begin to be fully expressed. The new investments in two barges will come on stream in 2020 and should contribute to replacing revenue and cash flow that is exiting with the retirement of our older ATB units. Further, our two Korean new building tankers, offer opportunity to pursue initiatives to work with [indiscernible] in expanding the internationally trading U.S. black tanker fleet while offering interesting optionality to generate incremental revenue in the mean time. The past two years have seen a sharp cyclical downturn in our core tanker and ATB markets. During this period, we have pursued a strategy centered on utilizing steady contribution of our niche businesses to both strengthen our balance sheet and maximize our ability to benefit from a market recovery. All together we have cause to believe that this commercial strategy remains sound for the long-term and we remain confident that the mix of our revenue streams will continue to provide an effective means to capture the benefits of the continuing arc of improving fundamentals. We will now open the call to questions. Operator?

[Operator:]

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from George Schultze with Schultze Asset Management. Please go ahead.

[George Schultze:]

Just curious about your expected CapEx expenditures in 2019 and 2020, with the several new builds.

[Richard Trueblood:]

I'm sorry, what is your question George?

[George Schultze:]

No, I'm just curious what you expect in terms of outgoing capital expenditures for those several ships in this year and next year?

[Richard Trueblood:]

It's $152 million in total. And the majority of that about $118 million of that will occur in 2019 with the balance in 2020 split between the second and fourth quarters. The principal payments of the two Korean new builds are heavily weighted towards September on delivery, for those the pricing is 40% during the construction period and 60% on delivery. The barges that are being built in Oregon are a more fully priced commitment as the construction occurs with a relatively smaller payment on delivery in the sort of $5 million or so dollar range on delivery for each of those two vessels.

[George Schultze:]

And separate from that, do you also expect some level of maintenance capital expenditures for both years of…

[Richard Trueblood:]

Yes, there'll be maintenance CapEx, that's couple of drydocks during the year, Sam mentioned for the Cascade and the Tampa, we'll have a couple of others. We've got the Key West in right now, and that's sort of in that probably $14 million range.

[George Schultze:]

For both years, right, for 2019 and 2020 right?

[Richard Trueblood:]

For 2019.

[Samuel Norton:]

And 2020, George, this is Sam, we will begin making capital investments in ballast water treatment modifications to our ships. Two things to bear in mind for those vessels that we own, 2020 will be a relatively active year. For those vessels that are leased-in, the capital expenditures for the ballast water treatment systems will be incurred by American Shipping Company. And then the lease rate over the remaining useful life of the assets will be adjusted to allow recovery of that. So, the upfront capital cost for the 10 vessels that we have on lease from American Shipping Company, the investment in ballast water treatment systems, which again, roughly is $2 million per vessels, that will be borne by American Shipping Company; the other vessels, that capital expenditure will be ours. And the period of those expenses for ballast water treatment extend beginning our first conversion will be at the end of this year and then they extend over 2020 through 2022 with some pretty heavy weighting in 2020.

[Operator:]

[Operator Instructions] Next question comes from Ryan Vaughan with Needham & Company. Please go ahead.

[Ryan Vaughan:]

Nice job on positioning the Company to capitalize on this much improved market and also thank you for all the additional disclosures, it's very helpful and looks like the next couple of years are setting up to show really nice year-over-year EBITDA growth, so thank you for that. Let me ask you, as far as the vessels that come up for renewal resets throughout the year or later this year, with the improved kind of more palatable rate environment, can you talk about your interest as well as your customer interest in entering into longer-term time charters?

[Samuel Norton:]

I think I can, Ryan. I think that we have tried to articulate in the past that unlike many of the international shipping markets that many people that follow our business also follow, the U.S. Flag markets and in particular the Jones Act markets are better characterized as being more industrial shipping as opposed to commodity shipping. And I say that in the context of the high level of co-dependency between our end users and ourselves in seeking utilization of tanker and ATBs assets as part of a broader distribution chain. The prevailing structure of that industrial shipping model in the past has seen our end users recognizing risk management is best served by trying to secure that capacity and ensure their distribution networks with stability over longer periods of time. We think that that perspective lends itself well to discussions around time charters that would - I would guide on average likely be around full years as opposed to sort of the types of durations that we've seen in the past year or two. And so with our expectation that conversations as we move into resetting the time charter contracts that we currently have over the second half of this year will have an ambition seeking out those kinds of durations in our discussions with our customers. One of things that gives us some confidence that those conversations will bear fruit, is the fact that when looking particularly at the tanker profiles and that's where I have tried to articulate the most leverage lies within our fleet. The available tankers that are coming off time charters that are controlled by our competitors are few over the next 12 to 18 months. And as such the opportunities for our existing customers to go out and have conversations with other available tonnage are limited. And so, we think that dynamic lend itself well to our ambition and ability to really begin to articulate our desire for and convince our customers that a more stable longer-term contractual relationship with respect to many if not all of our tankers is appropriate.

[Operator:]

The next question comes from [indiscernible]. Please go ahead.

[Unidentified Analyst:]

This is [indiscernible]. Couple of question from me please, could you just for the nine tanker vessels now 10 could you just run through how many of those were on spot in Q4 and then how many are still un-spot in Q1 please?

[Samuel Norton:]

Of the nine - of the conventional tankers one is currently in the spot market right now. The newest one the Key West is - we’re marketing at this point it's not in the market, it’s in drydock at this juncture. In the fourth quarter, we had a couple in the spot market in October and early November and we ended the - and that we migrated the rest of that to time charters as we sort of move through November and we got the year with that one still remaining in the spot market.

[Richard Trueblood:]

And we had three ATB in the spot market during the fourth quarter up until the end of the year and two of those have now been removed from service. So now we have one remaining ATB that is principally active in spot markets.

[Unidentified Analyst:]

And of the tankers in the spot market in Q4 what was the utilization rate I know you’ve sometimes given that before on the call?

[Samuel Norton:]

I'd like to get back to you - I think I can guide you that October was low, November was average, and December was high and so blending that I would guess that we probably achieved across the spot market available days of something in the order magnitude to 50% utilization but I can back to you with a specific number.

[Unidentified Analyst:]

And then just one final question from me. You gave I think some guidance on the blended TCE rate for the tankers in 2019 and you compared it to a number in 2018, 2018 number I think was roughly 45,000 to-date and in 2019 I think 50,000 doing excess of 50,000. Could you just repeat exactly what those numbers were and what the guidance was for?

[Samuel Norton:]

Sure. So in 2018 when looking at the conventional tankers the nine conventional tankers that were operating for 2019, taking into consideration the runoff of legacy contracts that were at relatively high rates the renewal of rates on time charter that we achieved during the year and the spot market returns that we achieved which are given to you in the earnings release. When you blend all those together we achieved $45,658 per day on average and fleet time charter revenues for the tankers in 2018. Given the book that we have now established for 2019 and our expectation for predominantly in the last quarter of the year in terms of what we expect to learn, we see that rate is rising to above $50,000 per day in 2019 on average and that would then include contribution from the Key West the Overseas Key West which we expect to enter into service in the second half of April.

[Unidentified Analyst:]

And like conventional tankers you're referring to the same 9 or 10 of those - of the tankers we were discussing before?

[Samuel Norton:]

That's correct. We continue to treat the overseas Chinook as a shuttle tanker and to group those earnings together with our niche market activities even though at present the vessels is trading as a conventional tanker. We continue to believe that in the future there is cause for optimism that the vessel will be redeployed - at least part of it services will be redeployed in some tanker activities. And so we think for consistency we continue to treat it as a shuttle tankers even though she is currently trading as a conventional tankers. So when we speak about our conventional tankers we refer to the nine other vessels leased in from AMSC and now prospectively including the Overseas Key West which will then get us to 10 vessels.

[Operator:]

Okay. This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Sam Norton for any closing remarks.

[Samuel Norton:]

Thank you, Phil and thank you again all for joining this call. We remain very optimistic that we will be able to show continuing improved results over the quarters ahead. And we look forward to speaking to you again in a couple of months time. Good morning everyone.

[Operator:]

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.