Pinterest, Inc.
Predictively estimating promotion conversions

Abstract:

An online host for conducting a promotion campaign is presented. Online behaviors of subscribers exposed by the promotion campaign are tracked for determining conversion counts for the promotion campaign. For exposed subscribers whose online behaviors are not sufficiently available to the online host to determine conversion counts (non-measurable subscribers), a machine learning model is trained to predict conversion counts based on online behaviors that are conducted on internet locations under control of the online service, and further trained to determine an estimated error rate regarding the predicted conversion counts. Conversion counts for a promotion campaign are determined according to an analysis of the online behaviors of the exposed subscribers whose online behaviors are sufficiently available to the online host to determine conversion counts (measurable subscribers), and according to the predicted conversion counts of the non-measurable subscribers with an estimated error rate that meets or exceeds a predetermined threshold.