Radian Group Inc.
Q2 2011 Earnings Call Transcript

Published: 3 Aug 2011

[Operator:]

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to Radian's Second Quarter 2011 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] And as a reminder, today's conference call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Emily Riley, Vice President of Financial Communications. Please go ahead.

[Emily Riley:]

Thank you, and welcome to Radian's Second Quarter 2011 Conference Call. Our press release, which contains Radian's financial results for the quarter was issued earlier today and is posted to the Investor section of our website at www.radian.biz. During today’s call, you will hear from S.A. Ibrahim, Radian’s Chief Executive Officer; and Bob Quint, Chief Financial Officer. Also on hand for the Q&A portion of the call are Teresa Bryce-Bazemore, President of Radian Guaranty; David Beidler, President of Radian Asset Assurance; and Scott Theobald, Executive Vice President and Chief Risk Officer of Radian Guaranty. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that comments made during this call will include forward-looking statements. These statements are based on current expectations, estimates, projections and assumptions that are subject to risks and uncertainties, which may cause actual results to differ materially. For a discussion of these risks, please review the cautionary statements regarding forward-looking statements included in our earnings release and the risk factors included in our 2010 Form 10-K and our first quarter 2011 Form 10-Q. These are also available on our website. Now, I would like to turn the call over to S.A.

[S. Ibrahim:]

Thank you, Emily. And thank you all for joining us. Today, I would like to begin by commenting on our second quarter results. Highlighting several trends affecting the mortgage insurance industry and our company. And then, providing a brief legislative update before turning the call over to Bob, to cover the details of our financial results. Following Bob's remarks, I'll outline our company's most important priorities before we open the call to your questions. First, we are encouraged with the direction of Radian's second quarter results. Clearly, there's still room for improvement, as we faced the continued challenges and uncertainties in the business, as well as in the economic and regulatory environment. Before we focus on our results, it's important to note that we believe our capital and liquidity positions provide a competitive advantage for Radian. Our risk-to-capital ratio, which is an important measure of Radian Guaranty's financial strength for our stakeholders, regulators and customers, improved to 19.8

[S. Ibrahim:]

Thank you, S. A. I will be updating you on our P&L activity and trends for the second quarter of 2011 and our financial position as of June 30, 2011. The MI provision for losses was $270 million this quarter compared to $414 million in the first quarter. There are 2 principal reasons for this improvement

[C. Quint:]

Thank you, Bob. Finally, I would like to take a few minutes to review the key priorities for our businesses, as Radian moves forward. For our Mortgage Insurance business, the priorities are

[Operator:]

[Operator Instructions] And our first question will come from the line of Steve Stelmach from FBR.

[Steve Stelmach:]

On the IBNR, Bob, can you just give us a little bit more color on the volatility quarter-over-quarter? And if there's any sort of comfort that we can get that, that volatility is going to be reduced over time potentially? Anything there would be a little bit helpful.

[C. Quint:]

Sure. Last quarter, what we saw was this phenomenon on overturns of denials and rescissions. And that was really new. We have never had that happen in the past. We had a small IBNR up for that, but we really had to increase it in the first quarter. What we found in the second quarter was that the IBNR on the balance sheet is okay, and there were really no adjustments to it, so we were comfortable. Can we limit future volatility? That's difficult. But I think in terms of this particular item, we are comfortable with it right now.

[Steve Stelmach:]

Yes. I get the point being as the overturn, you're not going to be surprised by overturns again. If there's a volatility in IBNR, it'll be because of something else but not this specific issue, is that a fair assumption?

[C. Quint:]

No, I don't think there'll be volatility in IBNR unless we get a real unexpected situation in terms of overturns.

[Steve Stelmach:]

Okay. And then on the valuation allowance, is $5, a little bit over $5 a share, what do you guys need to generate in terms of EPS to realize that full $5?

[C. Quint:]

Well, there's no real formula as to exactly when it turns around. It's really a judgment based on return to sustained profitability. So if we really feel like we have visibility on that and confidence in that, conceivably, it could turn around. But the number -- the actual realization of that number will depend on producing enough profit to generate that kind of tax effect.

[Steve Stelmach:]

Okay. And then just last question. On reserve per delinquent loan, obviously, there's been some variability within the industry. Could you give us a little bit of color on why you feel good about your current reserve for delinquent loans? Perhaps maybe some of the differences between your book and others that may attribute to the difference?

[S. Ibrahim:]

We're always doing our best to estimate the best reserve for default we can. We do feel comfortable with it. Currently, obviously, there are going to be things impacting it in the future. The roll rates are really the big item that we're doing our best to estimate, but they're going to be subject to the macroeconomic situation, as well as some of the servicing issues, et cetera. So that's going to be -- it's going to play out over time, but we are comfortable with our number and we do our best. In terms of the differences, I think, all of the companies are doing their best to estimate a very difficult number to estimate. And we're just going to keep every quarter learning as much as we can. And we do adjust when we see things that need adjusting. We adjust as quickly as possible and put the best number out there.

[Operator:]

Our next question comes from the line of Douglas Harter with Credit Suisse.

[Douglas Harter:]

I was hoping you could help by explaining a little bit more about that reinsurance contract that you entered into and how that impacted the capital at the MI subsidiary?

[S. Ibrahim:]

Yes. I mean, it's an excess of loss reinsurance agreement. It's been done before in our industry and by us. So it does take some risk away from Radian Guaranty. It's an arms-length transaction, so premium is transferred on an arms-length basis. It is risk transfer for accounting purposes and statutory purposes, so it's not a way out of the money catastrophic kind of situation, it's a real risk transfer at appropriate premium. It's known about by the insurance departments and it's a very arms-length kind of transaction.

[Douglas Harter:]

Does that impact any of the parent company's liquidity to have that transaction?

[S. Ibrahim:]

No. It's an intercompany, between insurance company.

[Douglas Harter:]

And then, just on switching topics to the QRM. What's your expectation now that we're past the common period? What should we expect from a timeline going forward from here?

[Teresa Bryce:]

Hi, it's Teresa Bryce-Bazemore. I think at this juncture is too early for us to really come up with a date and we haven't heard any projected dates yet. As you may know, the comments were due yesterday by the end of the business day. And we submitted comments at that time. And right now we are expecting that the regulators probably have been deluged with comments. So their process is to go through all of them, and then to sort of revisit their rule and come up with a final rule. The -- under Dodd-Frank, the rule, once it's published as a final rule, would be effective a year later. But at this juncture, it's too early. We haven't heard any sort of view from the agencies on what they think that timeline is.

[Douglas Harter:]

Is there any standard practice as to how long it generally takes, or these things all vary?

[Teresa Bryce:]

They all vary. And a lot of it is based on sort of on how many comments and what the content of the comments are. And obviously, this is a pretty controversial rule, with members of Congress who actually passed the law saying that the proposed rule is not consistent with legislative intent.

[Operator:]

Our next question will come from the line of Donna Halverstadt with Goldman Sachs.

[Donna Halverstadt:]

My question's focused on the reserves and the reinsurance that have already been asked, but let me ask a follow-up. You listed the items that positively impacted your risk-to-capital ratio, and in terms of contribution to that improvement, was the intercompany reinsurance a big contributor? And if so, how much more capacity do you have to do more of that in the future?

[S. Ibrahim:]

Things that impact capital are bigger contributors on sort of a net-net basis. But the intercompany reinsurance impacts the risk, which is obviously a bigger number. So I would say all of the items that I mentioned helped and impacted the risk of capital. None of them in a very dramatic way, they all kind of contributed. There may be capacity to do more of that. That's something that we work through with the insurance department. It depends on the capital levels at the subsidiary which we're currently very comfortable with. I wouldn't expect material amounts of additional reinsurance in the future, but there could be some, and it's something that we could use, maybe, to a lesser extent in the future.

[Donna Halverstadt:]

Okay. And another thing, I was wondering about to get to the interplay between opco capital and the holdco resources. In 2010, Radian Group downstream $423 million of capital support to subs, some to CMAC Texas, some to Radian Guaranty. If $423 million was the number in 2010, can you give us some numerical kind of rough expectations on what you think the number will be for 2011?

[C. Quint:]

Well, we don't know what the number will be. It hasn't been -- it's been very, very insignificant so far this year. The smaller subs and the contributions there are dependent on minimum surplus and things like that. I think we've said we don't expect them to be material, but there could be some smaller ones. In terms of Radian Guaranty, I think we're going to have to see how that plays out. So far we haven't -- it hasn't been necessary, but we keep saying and we mean that the money at the holding company is there to support the MI business if necessary. So we don't have a projection at this point, but we'll have to see how that plays out.

[Donna Halverstadt:]

Okay. And then the last question I wanted to ask, S. A. had made a comment about being open-minded about opportunities for shareholder value around any reshaping of the MI industry, and a couple of other folks have mentioned in passing industry consolidation. I was wondering if you could give us any sort of general color about what sorts of discussions are occurring amongst industry participants with respect to a reshaping of the industry?

[S. Ibrahim:]

Donna, as you know very well, I can't comment on anything in the way of discussions that may be occurring or not occurring. All I can tell you, that we at Radian have demonstrated in the past our open-mindedness, and we believe we are strongly positioned financially to participate in those opportunities as they may come up in the industry if they make sense for our shareholders.

[Operator:]

Our next question comes from the line of Mark DeVries with Barclays Capital.

[Mark DeVries:]

First, I just have one more follow-up on the risk of capital issue. Bob, how much more room is there to add to capital through harvesting investment gains like you did this quarter?

[C. Quint:]

Mark, we have gains in the portfolio that we haven't harvested yet. And obviously, that -- in the future that's going to depend on where rates go as well and the value. It's something we've done in the past. We could do it in the future. I wouldn't say there are material further amounts, but if it makes sense and we have the desire, we can do some more of that.

[Mark DeVries:]

Next question, just interested in getting an update on the trends you're seeing in modification, particularly around frequency and also the types that are occurring, whether you're seeing more principal forgiveness?

[Teresa Bryce:]

This is Teresa. I mean, I think that what we're seeing is continued volume coming through on modifications, although it's very difficult on the private side to really know what's coming through in sort of the way of private modifications. What we haven't seen -- we've seen a lot reported on principal forgiveness, but we haven't seen a lot in terms of what we've actually seen come through with respect to principal forgiveness.

[Mark DeVries:]

And the next question is for S. A. Has the recapturing of FHA volume -- has it so far been slower than you would've expected? I mean, I think when we do the analysis, it looks like MI is a superior execution in almost any loan type, yet it's been somewhat slow to recapture shares. What is it that's causing brokers to continue to choose FHA?

[S. Ibrahim:]

It has been slower than we would have liked to see it driven by 2 factors, the larger one of which is the fact that every time the FHA pricing has improved and created an advantage over conventional versus FHA execution, the GSEs have in some cases added additional delivery fees negating or significantly reducing the advantage of the FHA execution. And the other issue is there's a lot of originators out there who need to be retrained in originating conventional loans versus FHA loans, which has been a big area of focus at Radian. We've had several campaigns, and a lot of our focus has been on training originators to originate conventional loans again.

[Mark DeVries:]

Okay. And then last question. You mentioned the July volumes was a fair amount. Is that indicative of increased activity in the market? Or you think it's more of a market share gain on your part?

[S. Ibrahim:]

It is both. We continue to place a lot of emphasis on our sales and customer relations. We've recruited strong sales talent and are opening to the -- now open to doing more as it becomes available. We've seen -- we've won more business from existing customers. We continue to sign up new customers. In terms of market share going forward, calculation of market share has already become very difficult with 1 large participant in MICA no longer being in MICA. So market share calculations, which were always an estimate, are going to become even more complicated going forward. But looking at it from NIW terms, we are pleased with what we wrote in July and July and the uptick we saw.

[Mark DeVries:]

Sorry, just one more follow-up. Are you seeing any signs that certain originators may be pulling away from some of the weaker players in the industry?

[S. Ibrahim:]

Teresa, do you want to answer that?

[Teresa Bryce:]

Well, we're starting to see a little bit of that, but we think that could escalate, obviously. But we're just starting to see that. Obviously, we are very focused on the fact that we have a very strong risk of capital competitively, and we think we're well positioned to compete. And so our salespeople are very aggressively going out and looking to increase our share with existing customers in addition to having a business development team that's successfully bringing on new customers and, very importantly, converting those new customers to producing new customers.

[Operator:]

Our next question will come from the line of Chris Gamaitoni with Compass Point.

[Christopher Gamaitoni:]

On the net projected premium for the MI book, it decreased about $300 million this quarter and you gave us the guidance that, that was due to a prolonged economic recovery. Could you just give us the high-level assumptions that changed in your model?

[C. Quint:]

Yes, I mean, I think, we are expecting a recovery later. So we're kind of running out the new defaults at the level that they've been happening recently, so we have no improvement to that. We lengthen that out, so the improvement starts later, and then the time over which it returns to normal is also longer. We try to be consistent with economy.com and their projections in terms of the economic recovery, so that's really where our sort of macro forecast is coming front.

[Christopher Gamaitoni:]

Okay. And then could you give us kind of a ballpark lifetime claims rate you're expecting for the 2009 to 2011 vintages, the much tighter collateral written?

[C. Quint:]

Yes, I mean, it's the low single digits, depending on the LTV and et cetera. But it's a very low claim rate, and that is supported by the exceptional credit.

[S. Ibrahim:]

Scott Theobald, do you want to comment on that?

[H. Theobald:]

Yes, I agree with Bob. I'll just remind everybody that at this point of development, it is some of the best performing businesses we've ever done.

[Christopher Gamaitoni:]

And then could you also give us some color on the mix between rescissions and claims denials, what the kind of bucket between each of those used to be, what they are today, where you think they will be going forward and whether you've seen -- you've been able to deny more claims due to servicer improprieties that we all read about in the paper today?

[C. Quint:]

Historically, the -- I mean, it's really only a few years -- the rescissions were a much greater percentage of the two. Denials have increased from where they started, but they're still -- the mix is still rescission-heavy compared to denials. We clearly are looking at the servicer issues and paying a lot of attention to that. More likely, in the past, that has resulted in a reduction or curtailment of the claim as opposed to a flat out denial.

[Christopher Gamaitoni:]

Okay. And could you just give us an update on what exactly those violations would be?

[Teresa Bryce:]

Those violations could be timeliness in terms of when they move forward with a foreclosure. They could be related to whether the property's been kept up and maintained properly, those kinds of things. And so there are a number of things. We share that information with the servicers so that they're aware of what those issues are. And we look at each claim to determine whether or not any of those issues have occurred and then make appropriate adjustments to those. But as Bob said, our real recourse generally is to make an offset on the amount of the claim paid.

[Christopher Gamaitoni:]

Okay. And then finally, have you had any conversations with either of the GSEs about them increasing their counter-party risk surveillance on MIs, and maybe the potential to gain additional NIW from weaker peers due to GSE involvement rather than originator intent?

[S. Ibrahim:]

The GSEs have always focused on all of us in terms of making sure that we all have the capacity to write business. And so far they have not tiered the participants in the industry, but I can't comment on whether they will do so in the future.

[Operator:]

Our next question comes from the line of John Benda with SIG.

[John Benda:]

Just had a question on the CDO books, specifically the number of sustainable credit events that you guys list by maturity. So we see that's on different corporate entities. Can you give us an idea of how many distinct entities that's on? Is it on a couple thousand, couple hundred? I'm just trying to get a better feel on what's really going to move that book around.

[S. Ibrahim:]

Our Financial Guaranty team -- people will answer that.

[David Beidler:]

We've got our Chief Risk Officer, Derek Brummer here, I believe.

[Derek Brummer:]

Yes, there's probably about 850.

[C. Quint:]

Remember, we've said over and over that on the corporate CDOs, we don't expect credit losses in that book of business.

[Operator:]

Our next question comes from the line of Matthew Howlett with Macquarie.

[Matthew Howlett:]

Just on the paid claims forecast. We've heard of -- I think you said it peaked this quarter. We heard that from another MI as well. What gives you confidence in that estimate just given, as you mentioned, there are so many servicer delays and foreclosure delays that are going on today in the system?

[C. Quint:]

We do that projection based on the number of claims received, and then we look at a time line as to when those claims will be paid. And obviously, you're right, that time line has a lot of uncertainty attached to it because we're examining every claim that comes in for potential rescission, and that lengthens out the process. I think our confidence with that statement has to do with the reduction in claims received from last year and the expectation that the claims will trend down generally. And we said slowly, because claims will remain elevated for the foreseeable future, but we don't think at the same exact level that it was this quarter.

[Matthew Howlett:]

That's helpful. But just on that same notion, why is it so difficult to give sort of an incurred loss forecast in terms of why hasn't it peaked or why can't you go out today and say it's peaked and it's going to come down, if you think you have the page right?

[C. Quint:]

It's a much more difficult exercise to project incurred losses because even if we get new defaults right, and we've been fairly good at projecting new defaults and the reserve on that. You can see it's relatively consistent over the past couple of quarters. It's come down from last quarter. That first component of the incurred losses is easier to project. The much more difficult part is projecting the other -- essentially, the other 3. But really, 2 and 3 are the hard ones. Cures and prepays have been very difficult to project. We've overestimated the amount of cures consistently. And then the movement, this composition, which has really been a big component of incurred loss, loans moving through the aging and the buckets have been very difficult to project. It still is. And the roll rates, which are ultimately going to speak to the ultimate incurred losses are very difficult to project. We do our best, but we're not -- we're comfortable over the life with this embedded value talking in those terms, but there's a lot of uncertainty on that. From quarter-to-quarter, it's very difficult to do.

[Matthew Howlett:]

Got you. That's helpful. And then just switching to one quick question on the earned premium item. Were there any one-time sort of warranty pushbacks from warranties negotiations? I mean, is that line item [indiscernible] going forward, should we assume?

[C. Quint:]

No. I think you could say 2 things about earned premiums. One, the risk in force has been coming down kind of steadily because we're not replacing what has been running off, and that's a slow downward trend in our premium. The bigger volatility from quarter-to-quarter on earned premium has been due to our rescission refund accruals, which have gone kind of up and down and, again, difficult to project. But that's the cause of the volatility. Absent that, you'd be seeing sort of a slow trending down of earned premium.

[Matthew Howlett:]

Okay. So there were some rebates in that line item this quarter?

[C. Quint:]

The rescission refund accrual, yes, that did change this quarter, yes.

[Matthew Howlett:]

And just last question, you mentioned the ABS CDOs. Did you say that deal started paying again, in Financial Guaranty?

[David Beidler:]

The ABS CDO, no, I think you're referring to in our trust portfolio, of our most troubled deals. And 2 banks cure -- prepay and cure the event default. But it's really kind of an idiosyncratic event. And while it's positive in the short term, it doesn't really alter our overall credit view of that transaction.

[Operator:]

Our next question comes from the line of Mike Grasher with Piper Jaffray.

[Michael Grasher:]

Just a few questions here. Bob, on the risk to capital, there are those states that adhere to the 25 to 1 ratio. When you look at your new insurance written overall, I guess, for the first 6 months of the year, and even if you could do a picture of 2010, what percent of that total actually would be coming from those states?

[C. Quint:]

I think Ohio would be...

[Teresa Bryce:]

I think at this point, all of the states have, with the exception of New York, have agreed to do waive -- not for us because we're just -- but that they have agreed to sort of grant waivers. And so New York is the only state at this point that has still a hard 25

[H. Theobald:]

Teresa, New York was lower single digits.

[S. Ibrahim:]

In terms of percentages of business.

[Michael Grasher:]

Okay. And then if you look at -- or Bob, another follow-up would just be on the non-CDO RMBS portfolio, any change in the reserve for that portfolio?

[C. Quint:]

No material changes. That's generally an older book vintage-wise, which has kind of helped the performance. We do have reserves on it, but no material changes this quarter.

[Michael Grasher:]

Okay. And then final question just for S. A. You mentioned GSE reform after 2012. What about the FHA, I think Congressman Ryan had been making some noise about the issues that maybe they have. Any speculation on what the future might hold for them?

[S. Ibrahim:]

From what I hear, my view is that the GSE reforms would, to some extent, address the FHA role going forward also, because one of the messages we hear consistently from everybody on Capitol Hill is the overall role of government versus private capital. And we hope that, if based on what we hear is right, there will be a diminished role for government capital going forward relative to private capital.

[Operator:]

Our next question comes from the line of Scott Frost with Bank of America.

[Scott Frost:]

If you have mentioned this already, I'm sorry. Did you -- do you have any color on how much of the new business you're writing would conform to the QRM guidelines with the alternative definition if it were adopted, I think one of your competitors made a note about that in their release. Do you have any information on that?

[Teresa Bryce:]

I think generally, when we've looked at -- if the QRM were to come out as it was proposed at 20% down, obviously, there would be no business because -- now having said that, we have to remember that [indiscernible] proposed has a GSE while there's conservatorship as an exemption. So...

[Scott Frost:]

Right. Right. But what I'm talking about is there's an alternative definition that's contemplated in that proposal.

[Teresa Bryce:]

It's 10%. I do think it's about half of the business.

[Scott Frost:]

So, it's half of the business that you're writing right now?

[Teresa Bryce:]

Yes.

[Operator:]

Our next question comes from the line of Steve Stelmach with FBR.

[Steve Stelmach:]

Just a quick follow-up on Financial Guaranty, public finance in particular. Anything, updates there on some of the more troubled credits within public finance? I know there's been some news in Jefferson County. I guess it's coming somewhat to a head. Do you still feel pretty good about reserves there and exposures?

[David Beidler:]

Yes. All of our exposure from Jefferson County, first of all, is via reinsurance. And there are, obviously, negotiations going on as you alluded to. And our exposure will depend on whatever the eventual settlements that involves our primaries amounts to. Based on the information that we have thus far, we believe that our reserves are adequate given the nature of the conversation.

[Steve Stelmach:]

Great. And then just last, skilled nursing has been in the news lately. Anything we need to worry about there on the public finance side?

[David Beidler:]

Not in particular. Healthcare, generally, is an area that we pay a lot of attention to, but nothing in particular about skilled nursing, no.

[Steve Stelmach:]

Okay. And you don't have an outside exposure there relative to sort of that $5.8 billion or...

[David Beidler:]

No.

[Operator:]

Our next question comes from the line of Shawn Pei [ph] with Citadel Securities.

[Unknown Analyst -:]

I have a quick question. I know that you said that it's difficult to sort of project out the incurred losses, but I was hoping you can give me some color in relation to incurred losses you're seeing now, what percentage of them are due to sort of the '06 to '08 vintages versus some of the more recent stuff you guys started to write from '09 on? And how do you see that sort of proportion changing over the next few quarters, maybe even going out, like, 2 or 3 years?

[C. Quint:]

The losses from '06 and '07 are still a big proportion of our incurred losses. We do a slide that shows you the premiums minus losses by vintage. And you can see the '09, '10 and '11 vintages. It's 15 that shows you that. And it's a very small proportion of our incurred losses coming from '09, '10 and '11. There's also a big proportion coming from '06, '07 and '08. And prior has actually slowed down some. So we're hoping over time that the problem vintages become a smaller portion, but it's going to be a while. It's going to still be a big proportion of our incurred losses over the rest of the year certainly.

[Unknown Analyst -:]

Okay. Great. And just one more question. In the sort of like disastrous scenario that the QRM definition doesn't actually -- I mean, it gets passed down, doesn't change materially even after the comments. Where does Radian see itself moving from there?

[S. Ibrahim:]

While it could be premature to comment on exactly what we would do at that time, clearly, it's something we do think about. And we have capabilities that can to apply to a role in one of many areas in the mortgage finance, housing finance industry, whose future is still being shaped.

[Teresa Bryce:]

I would just add that given the fact that over 300 members of Congress have said that they don't think that the proposal as currently drafted is consistent with their legislative intent. We do believe and have had conversations with members of Congress that if the rule were to come out as it's been proposed, that we would look to try to have Congressional action take place. As I mentioned earlier, there's a one-year time frame before it would be implemented. But also there would be an even longer time frame if the GSE exemption remains while they're in conservatorship, which is expected to be for some time to come. So we think there's an opportunity as well to try to address the rule if it came out that way in addition to what S. A. was discussing.

[S. Ibrahim:]

The trouble about -- the challenge about dealing with futures scenarios is there are multiple scenarios possible. You could have an instance where the agencies come up with a relatively tight QRM definition. But subsequently, Congress, in terms of the GSE reform expense of all the private capital by reducing the amount of guarantees from 80% to a lower level, thereby expanding the role of people, of participants like the mortgage insurance industry. You could also speculate that at the same time, if they tighten up on government role in financing on the FHA participation, there will be a lot of borrowers that will still look at buying homes with less than 20% down who will have to find other ways of borrowing where there may be other roles possible. Again, we are closely monitoring, trying to influence what happens, and trying to keep ourselves in a strong position, a nimble position, to deal with that situation as it emerges.

[Operator:]

We'll go on to the next question of Chris Gamaitoni with Compass Point.

[Christopher Gamaitoni:]

Just one follow-up on the public finance book. Given the recently debt deal in Congress, can you give us any color on what you think the additional risk to the municipal exposure is as federal funding is reduced to the states?

[David Beidler:]

We don't see a material credit deterioration based on actions in Congress recently. Derek, do you want to add anything?

[Derek Brummer:]

I was going to say -- I mean, we expected that. We would expect, generally, a negative trend on the public finance side over the next year or two, but not anything that would necessarily create a material change in our view.

[Operator:]

And currently, there are no further questions. Please continue, Mr. Ibrahim.

[S. Ibrahim:]

Thank you, operator. And I'd like to thank you all for participating in our earnings call. Thank you.

[Operator:]

Ladies and gentlemen, that does concludes your conference for today. Thank you very much for your participation and for using the AT&T Executive TeleConference. You may now disconnect.