Sunstone Hotel Investors, Inc.
Q4 2020 Earnings Call Transcript

Published: 12 Feb 2021

[Operator:]

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Sunstone Hotel Investors Fourth Quarter 2020 Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session, and instructions will be given at that time. I would like to remind everyone that this conference is being recorded today, February 12, 2021 at 12

[Aaron Reyes:]

Thank you, Kevin, and good morning, everyone. By now, you should have all received a copy of our fourth quarter earnings release and supplemental, which were made available yesterday. If you do not yet have a copy, you can access them on our website. Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that this call contains forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties, including those described in our prospectuses, 10-Qs, 10-Ks, and other filings with the SEC, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected. We caution you to consider these factors in evaluating our forward-looking statements. We also note that this call may contain non-GAAP financial information, including adjusted EBITDAre, adjusted FFO, and property level adjusted EBITDAre. We are providing that information as a supplement to information prepared in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles. With us on the call today are John Arabia, President and Chief Executive Officer; Bryan Giglia, Chief Financial Officer; and Marc Hoffman, Chief Operating Officer. After our remarks, we will be available to answer your questions. With that, I would like to turn the call over to John. Please go ahead.

[John Arabia:]

Thank you, Aaron. I can say without hesitation that I'm glad 2020 is behind us, and I firmly believe that better days lie ahead. Goes without saying that 2020 posed the most difficult challenges the hotel industry has ever faced, and we were forced to do things we never thought we would have to do. That said and rising to the occasion, we and others working together also accomplished things we never thought possible. Simply stated, you're not out of the woods yet, we have recently witnessed evidence of recovery in demand including leisure, commercial, and group demand. We believe if these trends continue, that a gradual recovery has started, and we are likely to resume hotel profitability sometime late in the second quarter or early in the third quarter of this year. Today I'll provide a recap of 2020 including our accomplishments here at Sunstone, as well as our annual and quarterly operating results. I will then provide comments on recent operating and booking trends, followed by an update on our liquidity and an overview of our 2021 capital projects as we continue to focus on long-term growth. Bryan will later provide more details on our recent earnings, finance transactions, liquidity and dividends. So let's begin with a recap of last year.

[Bryan Giglia:]

Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. As of the end of the quarter, we had approximately $460 million of total cash and cash equivalents, including $48 million of restricted cash and an undrawn $500 million revolving credit facility. During the quarter, we utilize proceeds from the sale of the Renaissance LAX along with cash on hand to repay the $108 million mortgage secured by the Renaissance Washington DC. The repayment of this loan removes our highest cost piece of secured debt and eliminates nearly $10 million of debt service per year and leaves us with only three secured mortgages remaining in the portfolio. During the quarter, we also executed amendments to our unsecured debt agreements which provide for additional covenant relief and extend the financial covenant waiver period until the first quarter of 2022. We appreciate the ongoing support of our high-quality lending group throughout this process. Our balance sheet remains strong with significant liquidity and continues to position us, not only to successfully navigate the current operating environment, but to also allow us to take advantage of opportunities as they may arise as the industry recovers. We continue to focus on managing our costs and minimizing hotel expenses while maintaining our properties in good condition and opportunistically investing in projects that would have resulted in material displacement. Working with our operators, we have reduced operating expenses by approximately 60% to 70%. Since the start of the pandemic. Our current projected cash burn rate is now $14 million to $17 million per month before capital expenditures, which is reduced from our previous range of $16 million to $20 million per month and down from the actual fourth quarter burn of approximately $16 million. Shifting to fourth quarter financial results, the full details of which are provided in our earnings release and our supplemental. While fourth quarter performance was significantly better than third quarter, operations continue to reflect the most dramatic decline in hotel demand the industry has ever seen. Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $19 million and fourth quarter adjusted FFO per diluted share was a loss of $0.16 cents. While we were anticipating the fourth quarter results would show sequential improvement, the actual results also benefited from approximately $8.7 million of operational level credits and adjustments, some of which may not repeat in the first quarter of 2021. While we are not providing guidance at this time, let me provide a basic framework on how we are thinking about 2021. As we've noted, we expect our near term monthly corporate cash burn to be between $14 million and $17 million before CapEx. That is our assumption for the first quarter, which is marginally better, but generally in-line with the fourth quarter of last year. As the year progresses, we anticipate that the monthly cash burn will decline meaningfully and we expect to reach hotel profitability by the end of the second quarter or early third quarter. The rate of acceleration will depend on the success of vaccine distribution, the continued easing of state and local restrictions, and the return of group travel. As John indicated, we are seeing multiple signs of demand acceleration, especially in the back half of the year. Turning to dividends. We have suspended our common dividend till we return to taxable income, which may or may not occur in 2021. Separately, our Board has approved the routine quarterly distributions for both of our outstanding series of preferred securities. And with that, we can now open the call to questions. Kevin, Please go ahead.

[Operator:]

Our first question today comes from the line of Michael Bellisario of Baird.

[Michael Bellisario:]

Good morning, everyone.

[John Arabia:]

Hey, Michael.

[Michael Bellisario:]

John, first one for you. Just maybe on the prospects for external growth. Could you maybe frame how you're thinking about what in accretive transaction or the metrics of a potentially accretive transaction would look like?

[John Arabia:]

Really no change from before underwriting based on what we think the long-term earnings potential of the asset are discounted based on overall risk that we see for the asset. We are clearly targeting long term relevant real estate. Some of those hotels, the discounts on those types of hotels, I think has been smaller than what we see for more commodity assets that have garnered larger discounts to pre-pandemic pricing. Michael, I'd say it's similar to how we underwrite assets in the past, albeit with a much different starting point now.

[Michael Bellisario:]

Thank you, and then I do have one more follow up on a different topic. Thanks for that though. The Hyatt Regency in San Francisco, not your property, but there was a new one conversion announced in December. It's a lot of new hire rooms coming into the market. Did you have a say in that deal getting done at all and maybe more broadly, how were you thinking about brand conversions that might occur in other markets that might impact your portfolio both from a value perspective and a performance ramp up perspective?

[John Arabia:]

No, we did not have a say specifically in that conversion. I feel a lot better about the fact that those rooms already exist in the market, already are a competitor to the hotel. And so to me, it's much better than if a significant hotel had been built and added to the comp set under particularly under the same brand family. So not all that concerned about it, quite honestly. But no, we did not have a specific say in that new addition.

[Michael Bellisario:]

And are you seeing anything else similar to that in terms of conversions, big conversions in any other markets? Or do you kind of see this as more of a one-off opportunity in that market?

[John Arabia:]

They're probably a better question for some of our operating partners. I can only really speak to conversions of our own portfolio and our big news recently is I think, very exciting news. When you take a look at our Renaissance DC -- the Renaissance DC, the location of that asset has just improved so markedly over the past decade. It really has become the center of D.C., with the addition of City Center, Anthem Road , the Apple Store, the flagship Apple store that's in the Carnegie Library, literally outside of our door, and being so close to the Convention Center. And working with Marriott, we've come up with, I think a phenomenal repositioning plan to take that asset up market and have it be a flagship property for the Convention Center and for commercial transit. You know, they we think that we can capture rate premium that's already in the market once we provide a product that will compete head to head with those assets and with a brand that I think will fit very well on that asset when we're done. So, in terms of rebranding, conversion, et cetera, we're actually really excited about that.

[Michael Bellisario:]

Perfect, thanks for all that.

[John Arabia:]

Thanks, Michael.

[Operator:]

Our next question comes from Lukas Hartwich of Green Street.

[Lukas Hartwich:]

Thanks. The Western version is really interesting -- hey, John. The Western conversion in DC is really interesting. That asset already performed pretty well in the market. So, I'm just kind of curious what the aspirational goal is on things like REVPAR index or other metrics like that?

[John Arabia:]

Yes, we think we can move that asset, $20 in ADR maybe even more. And compete even better with the two primary competitors who which are great hotels in that market. We think we'll compete head-to-head with them. Just given that location -- we focus quite a bit on great locations and then over time, we can adjust the portfolio offerings or the property offerings to match those locations. And this is something that we've seen over the past 10 years. Our location just keeps getting better, and better, and better. And so, this is something that we've been working on for some time and we're excited about. Yes, we think we can close the gap on some of those competitors.

[Lukas Hartwich:]

Great. And then my other question is just on the transaction market. Obviously, you're underwriting hotels and I'm just curious how the tone has changed post the vaccine news in November. My gut would be that whatever the discounts were pre that news, were larger than what they are today. But obviously, we haven't seen many transactions close post that news. So just curious kind of the tone of the conversations you're having.

[John Arabia:]

I think that's a fair assumption, Lukas. A lot has changed in people's psyche since the vaccine news was so positive. We've seen it in the stock market, we've seen it in the financing market. 90 days ago, I couldn't tell you that there was an active CMBS market for hotels, for example and we have clearly seen a bit of a thawing. I wouldn't say it's healthy level yet, but a bit of a thawing CMBS market where various banks are actually quoting CMBS for select service portfolios, or maybe certain specific assets, particularly those that have higher levels of occupancy. I wouldn't say it's available for all hotels; but all of those things, I believe, as your question suggests, I believe that the ask on assets and the bid on assets is up from where it was 90 days ago.

[Lukas Hartwich:]

Appreciate it. Thank you.

[John Arabia:]

Thanks, Lukas.

[Operator:]

Our next question today comes from David Katz of Jeffrey.

[David Katz:]

Hi, good morning everyone. Good to hear healthy voices. I wanted to go back, and I know you've offered a fair amount of commentary about group business. And it's something we ponder a fair amount when we talk about bookings, because you know we expect that there should be a fair amount of pent up demand that would come. But the restrictions around those bookings or the flexibility within those bookings cause us to just think about the sincerity of those, right -- of those bookings, right. And presuming they can come, will they come, would they come; is there any sort of depth of color you can provide about that?

[John Arabia:]

Sure. I -- and David, it's obviously still a fluid situation, but instead of meeting planners focusing on what are those restrictions are now, our conversations with the operators and meeting planners have been where are those restrictions going to be in 3, 6, 9, 12 months. And there is a building amount of confidence, whether that's right or wrong, there's a building amount of confidence that by the time we get to let's say late summer, that certain groups will be allowed to meet, by the end of the year it will be even higher, that's the expectation. Now is -- as I said, this remains very fluid; would that can come quicker, it could be delayed, obviously depending on the rollout and efficacy of the vaccine, and how comfortable people would feel. But I will tell you the desire to meet is there, the desire to travel is there. As simple evidence by what we're seeing and talked about in our prepared remarks about what we are seeing from our group meeting planners and from transit guests; I mean, the fact that we have more reservations on the books right now for Wailea in December of this year than we did last year, tells you something. The fact that groups are trying to find spaces, and are insistent that they're going to have these meetings tells you something. So the desire and the ability -- the desire to do it is there, we just need to make sure that the vaccine rollout works, and hopefully that's the case.

[David Katz:]

Right. And, not certainly -- well, a little bit farther. And I wanted to ask, what insights or any hard information we may have available regarding business travel, whether the likes of us, and our ability to travel or respect willingness and ability to travel. How you're thinking about business travel in the mix as we go forward also?

[John Arabia:]

So we started to see a little bit of a trickle of business transient travel or BT accounts in the fourth quarter. And it was small numbers, but it was actually fairly wide spread across the portfolio. So business transient travel for our portfolio on a typical time period probably makes 35% of our total business. In the fourth quarter, it only made up about 3% to 4% coming through those BT channels, but that was better than we saw before. And again, it was widespread; so we are seeing pharma, universities, defense contractors, some project business that has some hospital business that has started to show up. I would not say that we've seen significant business from my understanding, from what say financial yet as a lot of those folks still are not back in the office nor traveling. But some of the other businesses, we've actually seen little trickles of business and we're seeing more and more BT reservations starting to come in. Again, it's lagging leisure, it's lagging group activity, but we're starting to see that business transient, those BT accounts starting to produce a little bit more, particularly after the vaccine rollout began.

[David Katz:]

Thank you. Appreciate it.

[Operator:]

Our next question comes from Danny Asad of Bank of America.

[Danny Asad:]

Hey, good morning, everybody. John, I just want to start out by saying this is probably the most positive tone we've heard out of you a few years. So, maybe want to just drill down a little bit on some of these trends. So can you help us with giving us maybe a little bit more insight on the type of groups that are confirming these events? I know you kind of -- you gave a little bit on with David's question, but just be a little bit more specific on; are you seeing this group activity in any specific markets like San Diego, or is it little bit more broad-based?

[John Arabia:]

I'd say it's a little bit more broad-based in our discussions with groups. We have -- as I said in the prepared remarks, I used an example of the great group bookings that we had in San Diego in January, which were just fantastic. In the third quarter, I bet you we see a little bit more smurf regional local association, and there are a small number of city wide businesses that we think will show up, could show up; still some amount of uncertainty. And there is a little bit of corporate group; so I would say it's fairly widespread.

[Danny Asad:]

And then, for the leisure piece. When you're talking about leisure demand acceleration; do you have a sense for how much -- you know, how much of that is coming out of Hawaii -- like, is Hawaii skewing the numbers at all? You do sound like pretty positive on that. So, just wondering if kind of how -- does the portfolio looks ex-Hawaii?

[John Arabia:]

Yes, good question. Wailea and Oceans Edge are skewing those numbers, even though we're getting increased transient business even in some hotels like Hilton Bayfront, that traditionally aren't leisure hotels. I think the desire for people to get out of their homes, and do something more similar to normal. I know, for example, in San Diego, SeaWorld is just reopening and things like that that people want to get out, even if it's a close drive from their home. But you're right, Danny, that skewing those numbers a bit are Wailea and Oceans Edge. I will tell you that as soon as the vaccines came out, and it looked like the restrictions in Hawaii would continue to ease, our phone has been ringing off the hook in Wailea. In fact, my message to all of you now, if you plan on going on spring break, summer break, or festive season, start looking to make your reservations now because I honestly believe great hotels are going to fill up, and there's not going to be rate sensitivity. So…

[Danny Asad:]

Thank you so much. That's it for me.

[Operator:]

Our next question comes from Rich Hightower of Evercore.

[Rich Hightower:]

Hey, morning, guys. John, I kind of want to follow-up a little bit on the last question in terms of skewness within the portfolio. And thinking about that sort of overall profitability hurdle that you've talked about, late 2Q, early 3Q. How many hotels in the portfolio does that apply to? And how do you see sort of skew then, 17 hotel portfolio in that sense?

[John Arabia:]

So, Rich, you're talking about how many of our hotels do we think could be profitable within the portfolio by the second or third quarter, is that…

[Rich Hightower:]

Yes, that's a simpler way to ask what I asked. Yes, thanks.

[John Arabia:]

I don't know if I have that in front of me. It's going to be a mix, there will clearly be some of the city center hotels that I would say would be behind that. I would expect some of the hotels that are already profitable or approaching profitability will be into profitability. I don't have a number in front of you Rich, just hotel by hotel; but there will still be some hotels that are losing money by the second and third quarter I'd suspect.

[Bryan Giglia:]

Yes, . The larger group hotels -- safest function there will be those will become profitable or expect to be profitable later than the leisure or for smaller city center hotels. So, you know, our expectation is, the Wailea's, the other hotels, that have either were profitable in the fourth quarter or very close to profitable, the New Orleans assets KeyWest; those will lead, and then the larger group hotels, the expectation is those will be later in the -- as we move into the fourth quarter.

[Rich Hightower:]

Okay, so that's what I thought. That's a helpful explanation, though. And I guess in a similar way, when we think about the sort of highly rated business assets like Wailea, like Oceans Edge, right; a lot of that sort of sinks to the mix at the hotel and perhaps limited inventory in the market at times or maybe it's just the neighborhood that it's in, right; thinking of Wailea in that context. But as we sort of see a broader reopening in urban markets in Big Box Group assets, I mean, how do you expect that sort of rate integrity equation to play out as you're then sort of competing with other owners whose balance sheets are differently structured, maybe a little more distressed than what Sunstone has. How do you expect the pricing dynamic to play out? And does that factor into the assumptions that you make around your own portfolios profitability?

[John Arabia:]

It has been factored in, Rich. And I would agree with you, Wailea aside, Oceans Edge side, specific weekend's aside. Pricing, I think will remain challenged for some time as in this transition period. I don't see any way around it. I mean, if a market is running 30% or 40%, occupancy, and let's say, maybe even a little bit better on certain days midweek, you're still not going to get pricing compression for some time. So, I think it's going to be gradual. We've assumed in our comments that rate will be depressed or remain depressed in general until we get back to some level of normalcy with occupancy.

[Bryan Giglia:]

If you look at the group component, business that were rebooking into 2021 and then both, business that's being rebooked into 2022; 2021 is flat to down, percent or couple percent to what it was originally booked in 2020 or early 2021. Business has been booked into 2022, it's been negative at a premium to what we were giving for business that was booked in that we should have been booked for 2020 but cancelled in 2020 and rebooked. So from a group perspective, we're making sure that our operators are maintaining the pricing integrity, and we're seeing that in the business that has been revoked.

[Richard Hightower:]

Okay, thanks for the comments, guys.

[Operator:]

Our next question comes from Anthony Powell of Barclays.

[Anthony Powell:]

Hi, good morning guys. Similar questions, I guess, just on group. What do you think meeting players need to see precisely in order to continue with their meetings? Do they just need to see local restrictions go away or do you see things like your attendees being vaccinated, testing being provided at the hotel? Are the meeting planners asking for any new accommodation or any new types of meetings or any types of layouts, what are they kind of looking for in order to make sure that they can actually proceed with these events?

[John Arabia:]

I think it's all of the above. I think there is a lot of individual conversations going on at each hotel. What are the spacing requirements, what are the local travel or gathering restrictions. I think a lot of people are going under the assumption that restrictions will continue to ease overtime as more and more people get vaccinated, and as the case loads and hospitalizations decline. So, I think it's all of those things, Anthony.

[Anthony Powell:]

Got it. And you've talked a lot about more transit demand in KeyWest, San Diego, Hawaii, and . What about your large urban markets; Boston, D.C., Chicago, San Francisco? Are you seeing any kind of signs of life there? And what do you think you need to see in those markets in order to get some transient business back or it's just local attracted me, and open like theater and whatnot, museums, restaurants, what's the prospect for leisure in those markets?

[John Arabia:]

You know, it's increases but increases up a very small basis in some of those city center locations. So, we are seeing a little bit of an increase in pickup in transient reservations, for example, in Boston, looking at our list right now in D.C., in New Orleans, in Chicago; but it's small increases or their increase is off of a small base. The larger increases that we have seen, I think we've -- it makes sense is first going to be in leisure. And then, I do believe; I feel confident that we will see increases in business transient. But that's obviously, we're starting of a lower base and I think it's just going to take us a while.

[Anthony Powell:]

Okay, maybe just one more in terms of the transaction environment. You talked about discounts to prior COVID levels being -- I guess, reducing as post-vaccine time, as we're in this post-vaccine time period. What about deals where the prices maybe at or above pre-COVID levels? Would you entertain those type of acquisitions if the asset demands it?

[John Arabia:]

So far, I don't think I've seen anything, that's -- the would trade at a premium to pre-COVID pricing. I think there's been some decent transactions right around pre-COVID pricing, but I -- today, I don't think there is anything, that I thought that has been a premium there too. The things that I think are getting closer to pre-COVID pricing, would be honestly LTRR, long-term relevant real estate, particularly in leisure markets or drive to markets, or if somebody just is making a bet on a certain high quality asset overtime.

[Anthony Powell:]

All right. Thank you.

[Operator:]

Our next question comes from Smedes Rose Of Citi.

[Smedes Rose:]

Hi, thanks. I just wanted to ask you, you -- we authorized the buyback program for up to 500 million of shares. Could you just talk about where buybacks sort of line-up and more sort of uses of cash as you think about the next two quarters?

[John Arabia:]

Yes, historically, we have used a buyback as a capital allocation tool. And early last year, I think we bought back just over $100 million worth of stock. As we stand here today, we are up on that trade, I believe didn't think the pandemic was coming. But you know, still bought it at a margin of safety that we thought that would look good overtime, and still feel confident about that So just philosophically, we believe that share buyback is an important tool. If you have the right balance sheet that can accomplish things. You know, it's company policy, we don't provide a pricing levels, that we would buyback stock. What our board did? We as a board approved both, the ATM and the buyback as we do as annual practice just to make sure that we have those tools in place should something crazy happen or something some dislocation in the market that we've -- it seems that has occurred here, just even recently, not in our name but in other sectors. So those are just tools in place. As I think, you know, smashes. We are not allowed per our covenants to buy back stock right now. But hopefully, we get back into compliance at a certain point here and the not, so distant future where we have those abilities granted back to us.

[Smedes Rose:]

Okay. And then I just wanted to ask you on the western conversion, you mentioned about a $20 move in REIT sort of to help the returns you talked about. Is Marriott helping at all to incentivize that or are they just sort of standby and remain as a manager there?

[John Arabia:]

No, there's -- I mean, well, first of all, we're approaching this together as there are operating partner here. Financially, are they supporting it? No, I wouldn't -- I wouldn't say financially they're supporting it, but they have various incentives to make this work and I think those incentives are aligned. For example, when I take a look at what we did in Wailea, Marriott rightfully, is making a heck of a lot more money than they would have, if we -- if we hadn't reposition that hotel. And that's -- you know, that's a good thing because that project has been -- even in spite of the pandemic that project has been a home run.

[Smedes Rose:]

Okay. You know, I just didn't know there were maybe like any sort of operating guarantees or a break on or anything while you give it. If there's not that, that's fine, I was just wondering.

[John Arabia:]

No.

[Smedes Rose:]

Thank you.

[Operator:]

Our next question comes from Alexandra Ratzker of Morgan Stanley.

[Alexandra Ratzker:]

Hi, thank you. So when you're underwriting deals, can you just talk about your considerations when underwriting a relatively new asset or a new to market asset like Oceans Edge versus -- you know, you've done more kind of repositioning assets, like Wailea? Thank you.

[John Arabia:]

Sure. It's all the same process, it's what do we think the asset -- what do we think that the asset can do overtime relative to the competition, and given the demand drivers in the market. And then we approach it as, does the property need capital or not, or asset management. What I like about our overall strategy and tactics is, their focus is always going to be on long-term relevant real estate. But there are several ways to get there, and whether that's buying something brand new that requires asset management, require buying something that is deemed stabilized, such as the Hyatt Embarcadero, but our asset managers came in and found lots of ways to increase profitability and increase profitability there with food and beverage; repositioning the food and beverage. We are working with Hyatt, came up with different sales strategies to group up the hotels that worked out incredibly well over the past several years, obviously, excluding the pandemic. But then, I also think core competency of ours is deep value turnaround. And when I take a look back at the initial reaction to taking on Boston Park Plaza and Wailea was initially fairly negative. Boy oh boy, those projects have turned out great; I'm glad we did them, and it's something that I think we do well, and something that our operating partners have a great level of confidence in, that we will achieve. I think it's worth mentioning that those operating partners give us an incredible amount of room to do what we do because they know that we will do it right, and as a high risk of being successful.

[Alexandra Ratzker:]

Well, good color. And then just as a follow-up any updated thinking on the long-term cost structure of your hotels versus pre-COVID levels? I mean, do you think costs will be down 10%, 15%, 5%; how are you thinking about?

[John Arabia:]

Yes, like the old saying, never let a crisis go to waste. There's a lot of -- there's a lot of discussions that Marc Hoffman and other owners are having with Marriott, Hilton, Hyatt and other operating partners; and what are the operations of the hotels look like in the future. And, you know, the on-property opportunities would be workforce innovation, organizational changes, management restructuring, but then there is also a lot of fees coming from -- fees and services coming from some of our operating partners that I think need to be rationalized which we talked about in previous calls and at various conferences. I think those are real, you know; could we get all things held constant on 100 to 200 basis points and EBITDA margin overtime? That's sustainable, yes, I think that's real.

[Operator:]

Our next question comes from Chris Woronka.

[Chris Woronka:]

Good morning, guys. Yes, I'm here. Can you hear me?

[John Arabia:]

Yes, we can. Go for it.

[Chris Woronka:]

Okay. Hey, guys. Thanks. So, first question was kind of on the Renaissance Western Conversion in D.C. I think you still have three other Renaissances, and two of which I think are in markets you really like long-term. Is -- are there going to be similar opportunities on those or is this really just kind of a very one-off?

[John Arabia:]

So far, this is a one-off project. But we're open to discussion and open to evaluation in the future.

[Chris Woronka:]

Okay, fair enough. And then, as you may begin to see more acquisition opportunities put in front of you, does this concept of new normal change your thinking at all in terms of markets that you might invest in now that you might not have previously, whether it's a Nashville or an Austin or other places?

[John Arabia:]

That's funny. We've looked at Nashville several times, so I would say that that's always been on the list, although the supply dynamic -- while the demand dynamics down there are great, the supply dynamics down there just really give us a pause while we love the market long-term. Does it change the way we look at certain markets? Maybe a little bit on the margin. I think anytime you go through something this significant and see the reaction, whether or not it's potential change in demand drivers, the reaction from it or property taxes or the cost of labor, what have you -- it should cause you to pause and reflect on what you thought were normal operating or investing parameters previously. So I would say on the margin, yes, we have changed our view on a couple of markets, maybe a little bit -- maybe a little bit worse than certain areas. I will tell you, it hasn't changed my -- it hasn't changed my viewpoint on owning LTRR ; I feel stronger about that now than I did before. I feel worse about owning commodity assets now than I did before. The simple fact that, LTRR, we always thought it would hold it's value; and that has clearly come through in this downturn. We're getting calls from folks looking to buy great assets from us, and the conversation is very simple; it's -- those assets have held their value, and would expect to continue to outperform overtime because that's where people want to go, that's what people want to know.

[Chris Woronka:]

Okay, very helpful. Thanks, guys.

[John Arabia:]

Thanks, Chris.

[Operator:]

Our next question comes from Bill Crow of Raymond James.

[Bill Crow:]

Good morning, guys. Appreciate the time and the commentary. John, on the city-wide front, and it's early, I get it. But can you point to any events coming up this year that would be kind of a canary in a coal mine, in a good way that would signal that the groups are back; something we can we can keep our eyes on?

[Marc Hoffman:]

Hey Bill, it's Marc Hoffman. I can't point to a specific group but I think, as John talked about with the timing of the vaccine, I think is the most important thing. There are some key city wides in Boston, there's a few in Chicago, and then really in Q4, there are several scattered around the country. So, I think it'll depend on how they hold. And most importantly, it'll all depend upon what the city municipalities decide.

[Bill Crow:]

Yes, okay. So there is -- there's nothing that you could say, boy in June, we've got this chance. But if it doesn't happen, you know, that's a setback. There's nothing like that you could -- can really point to; is this fair?

[John Arabia:]

No, Bill. I don't think I'd pin it on one group out there, for example. I think we'll get a better picture as time goes on because each different -- each different either company, association, etcetera is going to either be more aggressive, more conservative; does the hotel line-up well for what they need to do? Does the -- does location -- are those restrictions more accommodative or more restrictive? I think there is too many variables to point to. Let's say, it's housewares in Chicago going to show up or something like that?

[Bill Crow:]

That's helpful. And you pointed out that the meeting planners are more optimistic, which -- you know, that is their job, I hope they are. But are the CEOs more optimistic? Do you think they're willing to spend the money to either host the event or send people to events or do you think we've seen some permanent level of attrition at group events ? And I know we have to kind of think ahead and it's too early now but what's your thought from that perspective?

[John Arabia:]

So, let's first take associations. I think the associations absolutely want to meet, their large meetings are typically one of their biggest fundraisers for the association itself. And so -- and let's all face it, while we're all getting used to Zoom and WebEx and all of these other things, you know, for meeting a group of several hundred people, it's absolutely awful; it just doesn't work. You don't get the same benefit of being in person. And so because of those reasons I think associations, clearly are going to want to travel more and are antsy to get back out there once it's safe, and that's what we're all focusing on. For the corporations; and Bill I would push back to you a little bit to -- you know, what -- what kind of industries are doing well versus not doing well. Obviously, hotels, cruise lines, airlines, restaurants, those types of industries are really on a backfoot right now, and struggling financially; so I could see some of those types of industries saying no. Some of the other types of industries that I think are absolutely doing well, they are cash rich, their share prices are high, they're competitive; those types of industries, I think do exceptionally well and it's not a limitation, you don't have the CFO saying, "Hey, we need to cut expenses", I think quite the opposite, they're on a growth mode. So I would say that there is a bit of have's and have not's, at least from what I see.

[Bill Crow:]

Yes. I appreciate it.

[John Arabia:]

I'm sorry. Go ahead, Bill.

[Bill Crow:]

No, go ahead, John. Thanks.

[John Arabia:]

You know, it's -- in the beginning, should we expect to see greater attrition at any group that shows up? Absolutely, absolutely. I mean, that's -- for example, if the association shows up, we're all used to going to NAREIT. What I expect the NAREIT, and whenever the next NAREIT shows up, would I expect attrition to be up meaningfully, attendance down meaningfully from where it was in 2019? I think that's an absolute assumption people should take away. Now what the meeting plan -- what our properties are doing is, we're also scrubbing those numbers pretty meaningfully when we're thinking about groups showing up.

[Bill Crow:]

Yes, I appreciate that. If I could just ask you on the external growth front, if my takeaway -- I think I captured it right was, you don't really expect to see distress pricing on long-term relevant real estate assuming that it does need a major makeover or new management or anything else? It's -- you're just not going to see that distress in those sort of assets and certainly, you're unwilling to sell at distress levels. And I guess my question is, as you think about -- and I think last quarter, I asked you whether you had bet on, on the assets, and you said yes, you can address that or not address that at this time. But are you seeing -- do you think there is more competition -- different competition, less disciplined money out there looking at some of these deals?

[John Arabia:]

Yes, there was a lot in there, Bill.

[Bill Crow:]

Sorry.

[John Arabia:]

So a couple comments. No, no, it's good, it's a great conversation. A couple comments. LTRR, I think is trading at a more modest discount than commodity, it's still trading at a small discount, but just again, not as wide as, let's say, tertiary 30-year old branded full service hotel where those discounts, we've seen enough trades, that those discounts can be 20%, 30% to pre-COVID pricing unless somebody gets lucky and finds, I think the right buyer. So that's one point. Amount of capital that has been raised; our understanding is the amount of capital been raised to put to work to hotels is pretty significant. And is evidenced by the fact that our investment team gets calls every other day, looking for product to -- for people to buy from us, to be clear; so that's another point. I think you will start seeing a more active transaction environment as the CMBS market thaws; now that might take time and I don't want anybody taking away that there's an -- a really active CMBS market, it's fine. I wouldn't say it's robust at this point but as time goes on, with the amount of liquidity in the system I would expect that to continue to improve which should help the transaction market. So I think you'll start to see more trades, and you should start seeing better clarity into where pricing is, is on assets. I think I hit all your topics, Bill. Did I miss something?

[Bill Crow:]

No. I think you got it all. John, I appreciate you. It's always a good conversation. I hope the family is well, and we'll talk to you soon.

[John Arabia:]

Thanks, Bill. You as well. Yes, boys are great, wife is great. Thank you.

[Operator:]

Today's final question comes from Dori Kesten.

[John Arabia:]

Yes, thanks. I think that you said Dori?

[Operator:]

Dori Kesten of Wells Fargo.

[Dori Kesten:]

Hey John, Bryan and Marc. So, just another look at leisure pricing. When leisure demand does really re-accelerate? Do you expect to see an outsized increase in the use of loyalty points or do you think this will remain still more cash paying?

[John Arabia:]

Yes, we've actually seen quite an increase; people are starting to really redeem their points. Marc, do you have any insights onto that?

[Marc Hoffman:]

Yes. I think we'll continue to see as demand comes back and occupancy comes back, two of the premium locations. Clearly, right now in Wailea a lot of our demand in the 30% to 40% range, depending upon future reservations is loyalty. And I think you'll continue to see that in places people want to go; in New Orleans, Boston, etcetera.

[Dori Kesten:]

And you -- can you walk through what kind of headwind that is on rate for you guys? I mean, if you removed those -- I mean, I don't know, you remove those 30% that are redeeming, and it was just cash; what would -- I mean what would what look rate growth be ?

[Marc Hoffman:]

Yes. I mean, in -- the only really meaningful hotel for us with points is really Wailea. The rest of our portfolio does a very small percentage of their business for redemptions. Wailea, we have a very strong redemption rate; and what happens there is we end up selling up, so almost all if not the majority of our redeemed rooms by upto further views. So, we appreciate the redemption base and certainly at times like this, it doesn't affect our rate. As John said, we're up 13% in rate year-over-year, and even with the slow demand and our future rates that we're booking out six months looked very solid.

[Dori Kesten:]

Okay. Thanks, Marc. John, one last one.

[John Arabia:]

Yes, go for it.

[Dori Kesten:]

So, let's say, what were you're going to say you're up?

[John Arabia:]

It was in Marc's comment; in November, we were up 13%, Dori.

[Dori Kesten:]

Okay. And if we fast forward three years, what is your gut John, on how leisure business transient and group demand shifts within your portfolio?

[John Arabia:]

Going forward three years, how does leisure versus commercial shift? That'll -- too many variables in there, Dori. I don't -- too many variables to make an educated guess. We -- it will really come down to those hotels that we acquire and those we sell but I don't have a specific answer for it.

[Dori Kesten:]

Okay, thank you.

[John Arabia:]

Thanks, everybody. Really appreciate, again, the interest in in Sunstone. I know the call went quite long today. I appreciate all of the questions and your interest. Please stay safe and get back out on the road. Have a great day. We're around, if needed.

[Operator:]

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's conference call. We thank you for your participation. You now disconnect.