Stoneridge, Inc.
Q1 2021 Earnings Call Transcript

Published: 1 May 2021

[Operator:]

Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Stoneridge First Quarter 2021 Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After speakers' presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Ms. Kelly Harvey, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

[Kelly Harvey:]

Good morning, everyone. And thank you for joining us to discuss our first quarter results. The release and accompanying presentation was filed with the SEC yesterday evening and is posted on our website at stoneridge.com in the Investors section under Webcasts & Presentations. Joining me on today's call are Jon DeGaynor, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Bob Krakowiak, our Chief Financial Officer.

[Jon DeGaynor:]

Thanks, Kelly, and congratulations on the new job. Welcome to this call and good morning, everyone. Let me begin on Page 3. In the first quarter, we continue to navigate through the challenges presented from the global COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent supply chain disruptions. We delivered strong financial performance, exceeding our previously outlined expectations from both revenue and earnings perspective. Our first quarter adjusted sales of $192.8 million exceeded our previous expectations of approximately $180 million and resulted in an adjusted gross margin of 24.2%, translating to an adjusted operating margin of 1.8%. Adjusted EPS for the quarter was $0.06, which also exceeded our previously outlined expectations of a breakeven quarter. Most importantly, we continue to focus on controlling the variables that we could control and limiting the impact of externalities. During the quarter, we continued the transformation of the Company entering into an agreement to divest and complete the exit of our soot sensor business. This is yet another transaction that will allow us to focus our resources on the technology platforms that will drive future growth. We continue to make progress with our MirrorEye platform, preparing for OEM launches later in 2021 and expanding our retrofit programs as demonstrated by our recent public announcements that two fleets, Maverick and Montgomery, intend to install MirrorEye on 100% of their new trucks going forward.

[Bob Krakowiak:]

Thanks, Jon. Turning to Slide 9. Adjusted sales in the first quarter, excluding divested product lines, were approximately $190 million, an increase of 1.3% relative to the prior quarter. Adjusted operating income, excluding divested product lines, was $3 million or 1.6% of adjusted sales, which was a decrease of 190 basis points versus the prior quarter. The reduction in margin performance is primarily due to supply chain and commodity price headwinds negatively impacting operating margin by approximately 140 basis points. I will provide additional detail on segment performance and a brief discussion on our 2021 outlook for each segment on the subsequent slides. As Jon discussed earlier in the call, we are maintaining our revenue guidance with a midpoint of $780 million for the full year as we expect that production headwinds based on current IHS and LMC forecasts will be approximately offset by our first quarter performance as well as the expectation that our product portfolio will continue to outperform the market. Additionally, this morning, we are reducing our full year 2021 adjusted EPS guidance by $0.13 to a midpoint of $0.55, primarily due to externalities and an unfavorable product mix for the remainder of the year. I will discuss these drivers in more detail later in the call.

[Operator:]

Your first question comes from the line of George Sellers from Stephens Inc.

[George Sellers:]

Congrats on the quarter. So just to start, you have the change in forecast versus what they originally were on the previous call. Could you give us the updated year-over-year expectations for the IHS and LMC forecast?

[Bob Krakowiak:]

Sure, George. I'd be happy to do that, and thanks for the question. Thanks for joining us this morning. So the current forecast that we put together with respect to our outlook is based upon the April 2021 IHS and the Q1 2021 LMC. And I'll go through the five primary markets that impact us and what the current projections are. So we'll start with IHS for passenger car for North America. So IHS passenger car North America for last year was 13 million. This year is now 15.7 million, so an increase of a little over 20%. And then next year is 16.9 million. And that accounts for about 40% of last year's sales for Stoneridge. So moving to Europe. Europe, pass car is about 5% of our sales. Last year, that was 16.6 million units. This year, the current forecast is 18.6 million. So that's up a little over 12%. And then 20.1 million next year, up 7.7% next year. And then China pass car was 23.3 million units last year; going to 24.6 million this year, so up 5.5%; and going to 26.1 million units next year, up 5.8%. And then looking at pass -- at the commercial vehicle, the Q1 LMC assumptions for North America -- and let me add that China accounts for about 8% of our sales last year. So if you -- the China passenger car. So moving to commercial vehicle. For North America, that's about 8% of our sales. That was 450,000 units in 2020; going to 567,000 units, so up 26% this year; going to 614,000 units next year, which is up 8.3%. So Western Europe, which is about 19.5% of our sales, last year was 318,000 units; this year going to 367,000, so up 15.5%; next year, going to 420,000, so up another 14.5% as well. And those are the five primary end markets for -- on the OEM side.

[George Sellers:]

Great. That's helpful. And then turning to maybe a more broad topic. There's obviously been a lot of discussion around autonomous trucking and electric vehicles more generally. Could you sort of give us an update on where you see some of the risks and then also the opportunities for Stoneridge at the book of business today and also what you have in the backlog? That would be great.

[Jon DeGaynor:]

George, thanks for the question. And we talk fairly regularly about the -- we're -- our product portfolio, 100% of our Electronics business is drivetrain agnostic. And overall, 75% to 80% of Stoneridge is drivetrain agnostic. So as you look at whether it's a pass car or commercial vehicle transformation from internal combustion to electric vehicle, it doesn't have a material risk for us. And it's one of the reasons, as you look at a portfolio rotation like we did with soot, why things that are specifically associated with one internal combustion technology, why we would move out of that to position ourselves for the future. So with regard to move to vehicle electrification, whether it's in pass car or commercial vehicle, we're excited about that, and we believe that our technologies, both in Control Devices and Electronics, are completely applied. From an autonomous standpoint on commercial vehicles, we look at it as vehicle automation before autonomy. And our platform with MirrorEye connectivity and the other technologies that we already provide in the space gives us the opportunity to work with the OEs to help them as they're driving both vehicle automation and ultimately to autonomy. We've said many times that MirrorEye gives us -- puts us with a seat at the table as they're developing their future architecture. And this is one of the reasons why we're so excited about MirrorEye and what it means as a platform going forward.

[Operator:]

Your next question comes from the line of Scott Stember from CL King.

[Scott Stember:]

Can you give a little more granularity into the product mix that you expect for the balance of the year, the incremental costs? $0.07 to $0.08 seems like a lot of this is due to that dip.

[Bob Krakowiak:]

Yes. Scott, thanks for the question. I'd be happy to do that. So if you look at -- so first of all, if you look at the latest forecast assumptions for the remainder of the year, I did reference on the call and the latest IHS, LMC forecasts, we are expecting some unfavorable product mix in electronics. If you look within the Stoneridge Electronics business, the businesses have different margin profiles. The existing vision and safety business and the aftermarket connectivity business have a relatively higher margin. And if you look at really what's happening in the space right now with the shutdowns that are being announced on the passenger car side, not really impacting the commercial vehicle side of the business, so net-net, with our product portfolio exposure, it's neutral to revenue, but there's been -- there's really been a shift from passenger car to commercial vehicle OEM, and that basically -- that's basically the exercise.

[Scott Stember:]

Okay. And on MirrorEye, obviously, you guys have some very good news during the quarter about a couple of fleets wanting to put their entire fleets on this. Can you talk about how that -- are we talking through prewired? Are we talking through original and aftermarket at the same time? And could you just also give us an updated -- within your guidance, how much MirrorEye revenue will come through this year?

[Jon DeGaynor:]

So Scott, all of the decisions and all of the fleet decisions that we're talking about right now are for prewired. So it's them buying new trucks prewired, and then we do a retrofit because of the NTSA regulations. So there isn't -- there is not yet an OE option until the OE programs launch at the end of this year where somebody can buy one directly from -- as an OE order. But what you're seeing is customers see the value equation, and they're making their commitments -- the fleet customers are making their commitments, which is driving the OEs to look at how to support their fleets. It's driving ways to make the installation process more efficient. And ultimately, it will change the take rate in some of our OE assumptions. With regard to guidance, there's no OE revenue in our -- or limited OE revenue in our guidance for 2021. As we said, the first OE program launches at the end of the year.

[Scott Stember:]

Okay. Got it. And just lastly, for modeling purposes, you guys made comments about the back half of the year being better than the first half of the year. But could you give us some context or a way of viewing how Q2 should measure up maybe versus Q1?

[Bob Krakowiak:]

Yes. So I talked a little bit about it on my comments. Scott, thanks for the question. So what you're going to see is the supply chain disruptions that we've emphasized during our comments this morning, they're going to be more geared towards the second quarter than they are towards the balance of the year based on what we're seeing right now. So I referenced in my comments that we expect a little bit of improvement versus our first quarter performance and the second quarter. But the majority of the improvement, we're going to see in the second half of the year.

[Scott Stember:]

Okay. That's very helpful.

[Bob Krakowiak:]

So basically -- my comments were basically slightly lower Q2, and then basically, we'll see the improvement in the second half.

[Scott Stember:]

Slightly lower Q2 versus Q1? Okay.

[Bob Krakowiak:]

Yes. That's correct.

[Operator:]

Your next question is from the line of Gary Prestopino from Barrington.

[Gary Prestopino:]

Can you give me the breakdown again of the percentage of vehicles that are coming from each of the regions of the world as it relates to Stoneridge?

[Bob Krakowiak:]

Sure. Yes. So the percentage of -- so the percentage of our sales in 2020, so for North America, passenger cars is 40% of our sales. European passenger car is about 5%. China passenger car is 8%. And then North America commercial vehicle is 8%. And Western Europe commercial vehicle is 19.5%, last year's actuals.

[Gary Prestopino:]

Okay. Yes. All right. So if I have this right here, it looks like LMC and IHS were anticipating in passenger vehicles a 13.4% increase when you released Q4 numbers and that skinnied down to about an 11% increase in vehicles. So it looks like there -- it's about 1.1 million less vehicles worldwide.

[Bob Krakowiak:]

That's correct, Gary. Yes, that's right.

[Gary Prestopino:]

Okay. All right. And then in terms of what's going on in the markets now, you're starting to see a lot more costs or higher expenses for what you're doing. Do you have the ability to increase price to offset that -- these cost increases that you're seeing right now?

[Jon DeGaynor:]

So Gary, it's Jon. We are working both with our suppliers to push off some of the prices. We're certainly working on trying to drive efficiencies. And in many situations, we're talking with our customers. We are under -- in most situations other than in our aftermarket spaces, we're under long-term contracts. So it's not an automatic pass-through. But these are very specific times, and we're looking at -- in very special times, we're looking at all three ways to look at offsetting those costs while, at the same time, continue to serve our customers.

[Bob Krakowiak:]

And Gary, I would just tell you, one thing that's really important to understand, these incremental costs that we're incurring, we absolutely view them as just being transitory in nature until we get to the point where the -- both the resin manufacturers and the semiconductor manufacturers are back up to the normalized capacity levels as a result of the pandemic.

[Gary Prestopino:]

No, I understand that, but a lot of prognosticators are now calling for inflation is going to increase, and I want to get an idea of what ability you do have to increase pricing. And I think I just -- I got my answer there. Okay. In terms of this Maverick and Montgomery, these are for new trucks every year. Do you -- can you guys give us a range of what you think these companies add as far as new trucks on replacements every year?

[Jon DeGaynor:]

Yes. Scott -- Gary, sorry. I can't answer the question specifically for them as to how many trucks they buy. But the way to think about it is for these advanced fleets, they refresh their fleet on a 4- to five-year cycle. So depending on the fleet size, divide that by four or five and you get a sense for how many they're buying. So it's -- I think the most important thing is the recognition that we have fleets, and more and more so every day, who are comfortable with the technology and they're saying, "We're going 100% across the board with this." They see the value equation. They see the safety impact. They see what it means from a driver retention perspective. And they're making a commitment to that. And that's a validation of what we've been saying on these calls and what we've been saying to our investors for a couple of years. It's happening now.

[Gary Prestopino:]

Right. Yes. I can go to their websites and just look to see and get an idea of their fleet. I just wanted to get an idea about the refresh, so that's very helpful. And then lastly, again, I want to just go back to this product mix in electronics. I'm trying to understand. Bob, I know you talked about it on an earlier question, but is this -- you're doing product for passenger cars and commercial vehicles in electronics, and you're seeing -- because of the slowdown in production in passenger cars, you've seen a shift to commercial, which has a lower margin.

[Bob Krakowiak:]

No, Gary, let me clarify that. So it's not passenger car electronics and commercial vehicle electronics. It's just our overall passenger car portfolio versus our electronics portfolio. So if you think about the fact -- if you think about the announcements that have been made, they've mostly impacted the passenger car OEMs. The commercial vehicle OEMs continue to run, and our outlook for -- on the commercial vehicle side continues to remain very strong. So when you look at our overall revenue guide, our revenue guide remained flat, but we've seen a balanced move from the -- from passenger cars to commercial vehicles. And then just based upon that mix, based upon the IHS and the LMC forecasts and the awarded business that we have, how that blends out, that's basically the impact.

[Gary Prestopino:]

Okay. But again, maybe I'm not -- I'm confusing things here. But you're talking about an unfavorable product mix headwind in electronics, all right?

[Bob Krakowiak:]

No.

[Gary Prestopino:]

So what is typically is going on there?

[Jon DeGaynor:]

Yes, Gary, it's Jon. It's overall Stoneridge. So when we talk about pass car, we're really talking about the Control Devices business. Commercial vehicle is largely the electronics business. So it's overall Stoneridge and the product mix that impacts what's selling based on our end markets.

[Bob Krakowiak:]

Yes, we're saying it specifically. When we say electronics, we're not talking about broadly electronic -- we're talking about our electronics segment basically when we're referencing that, Gary, just to make sure you understand that.

[Operator:]

With no further questions in the queue, I would now like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Jon DeGaynor for any additional or closing remarks. Sir?

[A - Jon DeGaynor:]

Thank you all for your participation in today's call. In closing, I can assure you that our company is committed to continuing to drive shareholder value through strong operating results, profitable new business and focused deployment of our available resources. This management team will respond efficiently and effectively to manage and control the variables that we can impact and continue to drive strong financial performance. We're confident that our actions will result in continued success for 2021 and beyond, and we look forward to talking to you in the next call.

[Operator:]

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.