Teekay Tankers Ltd.
Q1 2015 Earnings Call Transcript

Published: 14 May 2015

[Operator:]

Welcome to Teekay Tankers Limited First Quarter 2015 Earnings Results Conference Call. During the call, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. Afterwards, you will be invited to participate in a question-and-answer session. As a reminder, this call is being recorded. Now, for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Kevin Mackay, Teekay Tankers Limited's Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead, sir.

[Ryan J. Hamilton:]

Before Mr. Mackay begins, I would like to direct all participants to our website at www.teekay.com, where you will find a copy of the first quarter 2015 earnings presentation. Mr. Mackay will review this presentation during today's conference call. Please allow me to remind you that our discussion today contains forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from results projected by those forward-looking statements. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to materially differ from those in the forward-looking statements is contained in the first quarter 2015 earnings release and earnings presentation available on our website. I will now turn the call over to Mr. Mackay to begin.

[Kevin J. Mackay:]

Thank you, Ryan. Hello, everyone, and thank you very much for joining us today. With me here in Vancouver is Vince Lok, Teekay Tankers' Chief Financial Officer; and Brian Fortier, Group Controller (01

[Operator:]

Thank you. And the first question is from Amit Mehrotra of Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

[Amit Mehrotra:]

Yeah. Thanks so much for taking my question. Kevin, I'm just trying to understand why the company would extrapolate the 1Q results to sort of imply an earnings power number for the full-year given just the strong seasonality in the business. And so just trying to get a little bit more understanding of your view in terms of what the sustainability of the first quarter's very strong results is into the second half of the year.

[Kevin J. Mackay:]

Thanks, Amit. Yeah. I think the tanker market traditionally has seasonal peaks and troughs through the year. And traditionally, the second quarter has trended lower than the first which in 2015 has not been the case, and I think that is a function of the strong oil supply and the weakness in vessel supply. So, I think the dynamics of the market that you've seen in the first quarter have continued. Refineries are making strong margins and they've cut back on the sort of early Q2 refining maintenance programs, which means we're carrying more crude oil to those refineries and we see that continuing to the rest of the second quarter.

[Amit Mehrotra:]

What about the third quarter, I mean, more reflecting (14

[Kevin J. Mackay:]

Well, traditionally, tanker market does have a weaker third quarter and I would expect that we might see some softening of rates as we go into 3Q. You can't defer refining maintenance forever. So, I think we'll see some of that at the back-end of Q3. But I think the fundamentals that are underpinning the market are going to support this market at strong levels throughout the year even though we may have seasonal dips between quarter-to-quarter.

[Amit Mehrotra:]

Right. Can I just ask one question just related to that as a follow-up on the supply side because with respect to the sort of Aframax fleet in particular, and the 2015 deliveries does skew to the back half of the year, and so maybe sort of the strength across all the classes have been really sort of back half 2015 driven supply growth and really very limited in the first half. And so, while I agree that maybe overall growth is lower than historicals, you are going to see sort of a sequential uptick in supply in the back half of this year and in 2016. And so, can you just sort of help us out with that because the rates have obviously been sort of unprecedentedly strong in several years that we've been experiencing, do you expect these levels to sort of hold into next year or do you think maybe the accelerated supply growth while lower than historical levels may moderate the sort of very strong environment we have today. But still sort of above breakeven levels obviously, but I'm just trying to understand where we go from the really super high levels that we are today based on the supply growth?

[Kevin J. Mackay:]

I think you've got to look a little deeper into the numbers. I think the Suezmaxes, we're anticipating only about seven ships being delivered this year, which is insignificant relative to the fleet size. I think on the Aframaxes, as you pointed out, the second half of the year does see an uptick in deliveries, but the majority of those are LR2s and not dirty Aframaxes. I think the LR2 market, although you've got more ships coming into that segment, I think we'll see strong support. They're coming in seasonally high third quarter and fourth quarter, the LR2 market typically enjoys. But I think you're also, by that point in the year, going to see the Yanbu and Ruwais refineries really running at full tilt, which at the moment we're not. So I think there's a counterbalance between which class of ship is actually seeing the deliveries in the mid-size space and where the demands for those specific ships are being seen. And we're fairly confident that overall, the supply, demand balance is going to remain in the owner's favor.

[Amit Mehrotra:]

Great. Great. Just one last question if I may on the leverage. I mean, in terms of the uses of the prospective cash surplus, you talked about deleveraging and I guess that would sort of obviously be very positive for sort of the equity value of the company. But clearly, you have also sort of opportunities to grow maybe as well for vis-à-vis acquisitions. And could you just prioritize sort of deleveraging versus acquisitions prospectively?

[Kevin J. Mackay:]

Do you want to take that?

[Vincent Lok:]

Yeah. I think our focus mainly is on maximizing the shareholder value and financial returns there. And it is also balancing the financial strength of the company. So that's the key focus right now, we're generating a lot of free cash flow that as you say is increasing net asset value of the company. And in terms of growth, I think we continue to look at opportunities. But our primary focus is on maximizing shareholder returns.

[Amit Mehrotra:]

Do you have a target leverage that you want to get to, in the next 6 months to 12 months?

[Vincent Lok:]

Not a specific target. As you can see, we have delevered quite a bit over the past five quarters. We're at 57% at the end of the first quarter which is still relatively high, especially given the fact that we do have high operating leverage, including the in-chartered ships. And so, over the near term, we'd like to continue to further de-lever the balance sheet. So that's sort of the near-term focus right now.

[Amit Mehrotra:]

Great. Thanks a lot guys. Congrats on a great quarter. Thank you.

[Operator:]

Thank you. And the next question is from Jon Chappell from Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.

[Jonathan B. Chappell:]

Hey. Good morning, guys.

[Kevin J. Mackay:]

Good morning, Jon.

[Jonathan B. Chappell:]

Kevin and Vince, I want to ask you, if we think about the evolution of TNK started as a high payout model when rates are incredibly strong, you shifted to a pretty manageable fixed payout during the trough of the market, and now here we are at the beginning stages of another upturn that some people think will last longer than others and you're still putting out that cash flow per share number this quarter of $0.46, yet only paying out $0.03. Now Vince, I understand what you're talking about and still focusing on the deleveraging, but when do you start thinking about maybe returning to that closer to a full payout model that you were a few years ago.

[Vincent Lok:]

Yeah, Jon. Yeah, as you said, in the past, we did have a full payout dividend policy at TNK. I would say that we're probably not likely to return to a full payout policy. We do understand the importance of linking a tanker company's dividend to its financial results. So that's not loss on us. But in the near term, as I said, our focus is on further delevering the balance sheet and particularly in the light of the fact that we do have the strong operating leverage to the spot market and we have 85% of the fleet trading spot. But in the meantime, the excess free cash flow is increasing the net asset value of the company, and it's further strengthening our balance sheet.

[Jonathan B. Chappell:]

It seems that maybe with the big bill payments still (21

[Vincent Lok:]

I think you still have to look at the overall leverage of the company. We are less concerned about the 2017 refinancing event given where we see the market and how quickly we're delevering the balance sheet. And as you said, we are benefiting. It is a very favorable debt facility to TNK. And so if we were to refinance it earlier, it comes at a cost. And so we're trying to balance both the near term and the long term. And given that the refinancing is not as much of a concern to us, and probably to our banks as well at this point, I think we would just sort of keep that in place until we find that it's the right time to do that refinancing and stretch it out beyond 2017.

[Jonathan B. Chappell:]

Okay. I'll just ask one more. Kevin, I rarely ask industry questions, but you've been in the industry for a long time, and we were around in (23

[Kevin J. Mackay:]

If you look at it – I look at things from a personal perspective first and obviously, the – you hope to learn from past experience. And I think what I feel and what I'm seeing in the industry is a lack of irrational exuberance in the current market. People are looking at supply and demand fundamentals and seeing the strength in it. But 2008 wasn't that far past and I think that the memory is still fresh that things won't continue forever and you have to be prudent with your management of your fleet and your balance sheets and your cash. So, I don't see the owners rushing to this market and say this is Nirvana like they were in the 2007 and 2008 period. I think there's a much more cautious tone to the market today. We're enjoying it. We're all reiterating that there is strength in the market, but we also have to be cautious that we don't repeat the mistakes that we made six, seven years ago. So, I think you've seen some tanker ordering this year. Some of it has been conversions from bulk, but the independent ordering I think has been traditional owners ordering one or two ships possibly with an option. And it's really I think to try and get in before the Tier 3 emissions keel-laying deadlines where your new building price is going to add another $2 million to $4 million. But beyond that I don't think there's been a huge sentimental rush into the order book certainly in the midsize space.

[Jonathan B. Chappell:]

Right. Definitely a different supply dynamic, but from the demand side are there any similarities to the kind of 2003, 2004, 2005 timeframe. Clearly China is not growing at the same pace that it was, but from a tonne-mile perspective or just a supply of the commodity perspective, does it feel similar to you as it did back when you were on the other side as charter 10 years or so ago?

[Kevin J. Mackay:]

No. I think, obviously, China is a big part of the story and even in the environment where their economy seems to be slowing, their thirst for oil is still growing. What I think is different this time is, and I focus mainly on the Suezmax sector in this aspect, the sourcing of the crude oil is different. It's not just the tonne-mile from the Middle East to China is growing. It's the disparity of voyages that we're seeing in that fleet. You have vessels going from Mexico to Korea, or Brazil to the U.S. West Coast, West Coast Panama to Japan. We weren't seeing those in 2007 and 2008. It was a more traditional just overall increase in traditional trade routes. Now we're seeing a change in the trade patterns which is causing the volatility in vessel supply which is a different dynamic.

[Jonathan B. Chappell:]

Understood. Very helpful. Thanks, Kevin. Thanks, Vince.

[Operator:]

Thank you. The next question is from Michael Webber from Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

[Michael Webber:]

Hey. Good morning, guys. How are you?

[Kevin J. Mackay:]

Good morning, Mike. How are you doing?

[Michael Webber:]

Good. Kevin, I want to go back to your comments around some of the similarities and differences between this cycle and the last cycle, particularly around I guess some of the differences and maybe the equity reaction to this cycle and last cycle. And it certainly seems like there is a bit of waiting for the (27

[Kevin J. Mackay:]

I think on the asset pricing side if you look at the second-hand market, there is a tendency to think we're topping out the market because of where we started from. The vessel values in late 2013 relative to today you can have the impression that today's values are expensive. But I think on a relative basis over a long term, today's second-hand pricing is probably mid-cycle. There might be some room for it to grow if the market continues to strengthen. On spot market side I think you will see some increase in vessel values going forward. Is it the right time to go in? Every owner has to make that decision based on their own corporate position at the time. As Vince pointed out, we're concentrating on maximizing our financial returns and the returns from our assets that we have. And as I spoke about on our Investor Day, we just don't look at fleet growth in terms of M&A and asset purchases, also we look at the in-charter portfolio is a big portion of our strategy. So there's different ways to skin it. But we'll evaluate deals that are out there and make an assessment of whether they can be accretive to our NAV and our cash flow. But it's not a clear slam-dunk decision.

[Michael Webber:]

Sure. No, and that's fair. And you referenced the chartered-in portfolio and that kind of leads me into my next question around that being an area where you guys have been able to expand at a relatively attractive level. Specifically around the Afras and the LR2 portfolio, I believe, you've got seven owned and three chartered-in, if memory serves. Can you remind us, one, how are those split right now between trading crude and products? And industry-wide maybe are we seeing any material switching from clean into dirty just given how strong Aframax rates are, or is that something that's maybe easing off as we're heading into Q3?

[Kevin J. Mackay:]

I think in terms of the overall market, I think you have seen one or two ships switch across. When I talked to the owners in our Taurus pool that have clean vessels and we talk about the differential between the crude returns and the LR2 returns. Owners are reluctant. They've purchased an LR2 vessel with the intention to trade in that market based on a belief that that market has fundamental strength, and to change that a lot of owners are reluctant to do so. They're quite content returning – returns are really strong. We haven't seen the returns on the LR2 side at these levels since 2006. So they are enjoying good returns for that concept ship (32

[Michael Webber:]

Okay. That's fair. I appreciate the time, guys. Thank you very much.

[Kevin J. Mackay:]

Thanks, Mike.

[Operator:]

Thank you. And the next question is from Spiro Dounis from UBS Securities. Please go ahead.

[Spiro M. Dounis:]

Hey, Kevin. How are you?

[Kevin J. Mackay:]

I'm good. Thank you.

[Spiro M. Dounis:]

Great. I just want to follow up on the fleet growth question from earlier. In December, it sounded like you had a specific target in mind, and your language softened a bit last quarter. Can you just give us any color as to where that sits today? Are you still looking at large-scale fleet combinations or is your focus shifting more towards maybe bolt-on vessel acquisitions?

[Kevin J. Mackay:]

I think it's important to make the point, TNK is not there to grow for the sake of growing.

[Spiro M. Dounis:]

Sure.

[Kevin J. Mackay:]

We're going to look at how best to maximize our spot exposure in the current environment. And as I said at Investor Day and I think I'll repeat it, we've got different levers in order to do that. So it's not just a question of growing through fleet acquisitions or M&A. We'll evaluate opportunities as they arise. But again, it has to be accretive to our current position and it has to add value to shareholders. It's not just for sake of we want to grow bigger and therefore we'll acquire things regardless of the financial implication.

[Spiro M. Dounis:]

Yes. No, that sounds prudent and I think makes sense. And just moving on to next question, it looks like you've locked in an Aframax time charter last quarter and I guess let a Suezmax roll off. How should we be thinking about lock-in rates going forward? Was this just replacing one for the other or could we see gradually doing this quarter-by-quarter?

[Kevin J. Mackay:]

No. It's really around managing our business. And I've said before, that customers are a significant stakeholder in what we're about that supported us in down markets and there's various ways in which we have to keep those relationships going, whether it's supporting them in today's current high-price environment in spot market, but it's also looking at providing tonnage to them on a period basis. So that decision that we took on one of the vessels or the Aframaxes early in the quarter was really around maintaining that relationship with a partner that we feel is strategic. At the same time, it was a good pair (35

[Spiro M. Dounis:]

Yes. That makes sense. All right. Appreciate the color. Thank you.

[Kevin J. Mackay:]

Thank you.

[Operator:]

Thank you. The next question is from John Reardon from Merchants Partners (35

[Unknown Speaker:]

Yes. Good morning and thank you for taking my call. And I'm not trying to beat the dead horse here, but when you did your spot secondary a couple quarters ago, one of the lines in the prospectus was that you had started discussions with a potential M&A candidate that could conceivably double the size of the TNK fleet. My question is are those discussions still ongoing or have they faded?

[Kevin J. Mackay:]

John (36

[Unknown Speaker:]

Okay. Thank you very much.

[Operator:]

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. Actually there is one more question just now and it comes from Nancy (37

[Unknown Speaker:]

Thank you very much for taking my phone call. I've been a follower of your company for a decade now, and I've always known that Teekay has been a high-quality supplier. So my question has to do with your competition with regards to other ship owners, in particular, the Greek situation. Can you please enlighten us on how you are dealing with that right now? Thank you.

[Kevin J. Mackay:]

Nancy (37

[Unknown Speaker:]

I was curious how Teekay views yourself in terms of your competition with other owners in the world? Because traditionally certain owners have been known to be more of a lower-grade quality provider. So has anything like that changed?

[Kevin J. Mackay:]

I wouldn't comment. I don't think it's prudent to comment on how other shipping companies run their fleets. What I can tell you, Nancy (38

[Unknown Speaker:]

Yes.

[Kevin J. Mackay:]

And we've been a leader on the basis that we pride ourselves on our operational excellence. Our focus on providing some of the best ships in the industry for our customers. And I think that's why we've built such a strong loyal customer base globally that's allowed us to weather both up markets and down markets. That has not changed in any shape or form at Teekay Tankers. Our intention is to continue that legacy. It's a commitment that we have made to the board. It's a commitment we've made to the customers, and I think it's a commitment that the shareholders would expect us to make. That was one of the decisions we took in terms of in-housing our ship management was to ensure that operational excellence and that industry-leading performance is maintained because we feel that that is where the value can be driven both for our customers and our shareholders.

[Unknown Speaker:]

Thank you very much. And I guess this ties in with some of the questions that previous callers have made regarding the additions to your growth. Because there's so many other factors that you taking into account. It's not just overall size. It's strength as well.

[Kevin J. Mackay:]

That's right. It's not growth for the sake of growth, and it's also not buying an asset just for the sake of buying an asset. It has to be the right asset that fits within our portfolio, that has the right specifications for us to trade and to maintain that level of quality that our brand has become synonymous with.

[Unknown Speaker:]

Yes, it certainly is. And thank you so much, and once again, congratulations on an excellent Q1 despite all the bad analysis.

[Kevin J. Mackay:]

Thank you, Nancy (40

[Unknown Speaker:]

I will.

[Operator:]

Thank you. And there are no further questions at this time. Please continue.

[Kevin J. Mackay:]

Okay. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you very much. Bye-bye.

[Operator:]

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the conference call for today. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines and have a great day.