Urban Outfitters, Inc.
Q2 2008 Earnings Call Transcript

Published: 10 Aug 2007

[Operator:]

Good day ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Urban Outfitters' Second Quarter Fiscal 2008 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct the question-and-answer session and instructions will follow at that time. [Operator Instructions]. As a reminder this conference call is being recorded. The following discussions may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Please note that the actual financial results of the Company for the periods being discussed, may differ materially from the financial results projected or implied in the forward-looking statements. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual financial results to differ materially from projected results is contained in the Company's Annual Report on Form 10-K, and in other documents filed by the Company with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The Company disclaims any intent or obligation to update forward-looking statements. No recording or rebroadcast of this call is permitted without the Company's expressed written information. I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference Mr. Richard Hayne, President and Chairman of the Board. Sir, you may begin.

[Richard A. Hayne:]

Thank you. Good morning everyone. It is a pleasure to welcome you to our quarterly conference call. Earlier the Company issued a press release that outlines the financial and operating results for the three months ended July 31st, 2007. We will now elaborate on that release. Joining me for this morning's call are Glen Senk, our Chief Executive Officer; Ted Marlow and Meg Hayne, Presidents of the Urban Outfitters and Free People brands, respectively; and our entire senior executive staff. Now that Glen is CEO, he will be giving the in-depth review of the Company's results. After he finishes, we will each be available to answer your questions. The text of today's conference call can be found at our corporate website, urbanoutfittersinc.com. Glen, if you would give your report now, please.

[Glen T. Senk:]

Thank you, Dick. And I would like to also express my thanks to the group for joining the call this morning. There was much to be pleased with in our second quarter performance. Once again, the Company achieved a quarterly sales record with total revenues increasing by 22% to $348.4 million. Total Company comparable store sales grew by 5%; Anthropologie and Free People achieved impressive comparable store sales gains of 14% and 28%, respectively, which more than offset the Urban Outfitters' decline of 3%. The Company's new and non-comparable store sales contributed $35.7 million, a performance nicely favorable to plan. The Company's direct channel grew by 35% to $42.5 million. Free People revenue grew 33% to $27.4 million. The Company's gross margin grew by 64 basis points to 37.3% with improvements in markdowns and store occupancy expense. The Company earned $0.19 per diluted share; a 24% increase in earnings over the same period for last year. And finally, the Company completed a number of important initiatives, several of which I will highlight today. There were also opportunities in the quarter

[Operator:]

Thank you. [Operator Instructions]. Our first question comes from Neely Tamminga of Piper Jaffray.

[Neely Tamminga:]

Good morning Glen and congratulations on the turnover at Anthro. Just wondering a little bit about the common on air freight; could you just give a little bit more color. Did they happen towards the end of the quarter in anticipation for the second half or was at the beginning of the quarter, and how should we just be thinking about that pressure from the air freight for the back half?

[Glen T. Senk:]

Really, it really started to happen as the business accelerated in the first quarter. It continued throughout the second quarter, and I expect that we will see some continued pressure into the third quarter. And we did not plan for a 14% comps, we never do, as you know; and as you also know, we always plan our inventory to weeks of supply, so we try to stay very, very flexible. I would think it really speaks to the CPM progress that we've made that we are able to manipulate and get deliveries quickly back into the brand. I believe the incremental received relative to the initial plan were in the 25% range for the quarter.

[Neely Tamminga:]

It's a high-class problem congrats. Good luck.

[Glen T. Senk:]

Thank you. Thank you so much, Neely.

[Operator:]

Our next question is from Betty Chen of Wedbush Morgan. Your question please.

[Betty Chen:]

Great. Thank you again. Congratulations as well. I was wondering if you can elaborate a little bit more about the merchandise changes that you've identified and want to work on over the next couple of quarters, and perhaps what gives you the confidence that those are the changes and maybe just talk a little bit more about how you expect that to develop over the next three to six months?

[Glen T. Senk:]

Betty, I assume that the question is directed towards the URBN brand, so I know Ted is anxious to answer the question.

[Betty Chen:]

Yes please.

[Tedford G. Marlow:]

Yes, in regard to what is led has there; we obviously... as we came through the second quarter we were expecting more out of the business. When that wasn't occurring we have been involved in a great deal of analysis in regard to what's been going on in the business, not only in regard to content merchandising but in regard to our performance at every level looking at every metric in the business. To make a long story short, we feel like that where we've been on assortment that we are a bit short on style count and breadth of assortment as it relates to style. And we are... we have been merchandising the business too deep at a SKU level. We feel like that the inventory levels we're running the business with are appropriate on a weeks of supply basis. We are inline but we really comeback to the issue of content on those weeks of supply and we think we have opportunity. We've had a lot of internal conversation on that and as Glen alluded, we've made some changes in merchant staff and had further conversation with the new team members, and we are underway on making changes. We feel like we can affect that positively as we progress to fall and continue, and wrap up our merchandising for fourth quarter.

[Betty Chen:]

Thank you. Good luck.

[Tedford G. Marlow:]

Thank you.

[Operator:]

Our next question is from Kimberly Greenberger of Citigroup. Your question please.

[Kimberly Greenberger:]

Great. Thank you. Good morning. Glen I was hoping you could talk about the comments on the recent personnel and specifically the structural realignment made at the URBN division. If you could just elaborate on the changes going on there; how far, you feel like, you are into this sort of restructuring process and when would you expect to see the full benefits of those efforts realized in the in-store assortments?

[Tedford G. Marlow:]

Sure, Kimberly, this is Ted. As to where we stand at the moment, we... as Glen mentioned, we have named Jim as the GMM for the business. We all had very good conversations in regard to Jim's observation on the business, and we feel like he can bring some change that we are looking to positively affect our assortment. As well, on the front side of making the move with Jim, earlier in the second quarter, Sun joined us as the Merchandize Manager for the women's theme. So, at a senior level and the buying staff; we feel like, we're where we need to be staff-wise right now. We do have a couple of openings and buying roles but we've done... the talent acquisition group has done a very good job of supplying us with buying candidates as we come through first part of the year. And we are pretty well at staff on the buying side. We do still have openings that we have not found the appropriate candidates to fill in a couple of design roles, and we are looking to make additional investment in the design team. So, from a buying perspective, we feel like we're in a good place right now and we're underway, and on the design side we still have a couple of roles, as I mentioned, that we want to fill.

[Kimberly Greenberger:]

And anything on just what you mean by the structural realignment.

[Tedford G. Marlow:]

Not so much structural realignment taking place, it really is a change in a couple of roles that is, is what is occurred.

[Kimberly Greenberger:]

Terrific. Thanks Ted and good luck for your first... the second half.

[Tedford G. Marlow:]

Thank you.

[Operator:]

Our next question is from Gabrielle Kivitz of Deutsche Bank. Your question please.

[Gabrielle Kivitz:]

Hi, everyone. I was hoping that you could quantify your open to buy this year versus last year for the fall and holiday season at both Urban Outfitters and Anthropologie; would be very helpful for us just to assess how much opportunity you have to chase the business and also to mitigate risk this year versus last year at each of the divisions? Thanks.

[Glen T. Senk:]

Gabrielle, I am glad you are asking that question, it's Glen, because I think that there is kind of continuing confusion around this question. The philosophy of this Company from the day that I worked here was to always buy to trend, and to buy to weeks of supply number. We certainly start out with a plan at the beginning of the season but as trends accelerate or decelerate, we literary change the plans weakly. So it's a very fluid system. What doesn't change is our targeted weeks of supply. Once the weeks of supply number changes, it changes slightly. As the business accelerates we may take the weeks of supply plan down slightly. Whereas it decelerates we may increase the weeks of supply plan, but it's... so it's a very dynamic fluid system. In the case of Anthropologie as the business improve every week the Head Merchant, the Head of Planning and Allocation and I would sit down and adjust the plans. So, to answer your question specifically; for the second half of the year, all three brands are buying to the current trend. So, Anthropologie is buying to the trend that they've seen in their business over the last six to eight weeks, URBN is buying to its trend, and Free People is buying to its trend.

[Gabrielle Kivitz:]

Okay. That's helpful. Thanks Glen.

[Glen T. Senk:]

Sure.

[Operator:]

Our next question is from Adrienne Tennant of FBR. Your question please.

[Adrienne Tennant:]

Good morning everyone, and congratulations on the turn at Anthro as well. On the breakeven con, can you talk a little bit about the de-leverage on the SG&A, and where we should see kind of starting to see leverage. I know we've talked about maybe kind of 3%, 4% go forward. Is that something that we should to see back in the Q3 and then also the gross margin piece of it?

[John E. Kyees:]

Yes. Adrienne, this is John. The leverage point is still around 3.5% on SG&A, the third... second quarter had the usual impact of the intellectual property litigation and, of course, it was the first quarter of this year that... the second quarter of this year that we've had, for Navy Yard expenses in the SG&A, by the time we hit the third quarter we were operating in the Navy Yard for a portion of the third quarter. So a degree of that de-leverage goes away and we should be back pretty close to that 3.5% leverage point.

[Adrienne Tennant:]

Okay. And then on the gross margin side; where are you levering on the fix components of COGS.

[John E. Kyees:]

That's going to be a little bit higher than that, it will probably be closer to five on a leverage point.

[Adrienne Tennant:]

Okay. Great. Thank you.

[Glen T. Senk:]

That will... that number will continue to come down as we reduce our store construction cost this year and next year.

[Adrienne Tennant:]

So, we should start to see that probably in fourth quarter coming down?

[John E. Kyees:]

I would think, you'll start seeing that come down toward the fourth quarter.

[Adrienne Tennant:]

Okay. Thank you very much. Good luck.

[Operator:]

Our next question is from Roxanne Meyer of CIBC. Your question please.

[Roxanne Meyer:]

Great. Thanks. Let me add my congratulations on the turn. I was just wondering if, Glen, you can discuss perhaps some of the changes you might be looking to make in terms of process that whether or call it best practices from Anthro into URBN in order to make the appropriate changes there and get it back on track?

[Glen T. Senk:]

Yes, I think that one of the beauties of our company is that there is a pretty thick and tall and wide firewall between each of the brands and it's really up to each of the brands to develop their own strategies. Having said that, Meg, Ted, and I certainly share successes and failures with one another and we can borrow as we see fit. I think that, and Dick certainly talked about this... we all talked about this last year. When we first really understood what was happening in the business at Anthropologie back in 2006, really at the end of 2005, Dick and the Board asked both Ted and I to go through what we internally refer to as a renewal process. And we really looked at every part of our business and I think that we took... at Anthropologie we began to implement this renewal process in a very meaningful way in the second half of last year. And there were... Dick has certainly alluded to this in prior calls; there was significant investment both in the merchandizing and the design part of the organization. We thought about the way we manage the design and assortment process differently. We added some steps to it. We changed the relationship between the direct merchants and the retail merchants. And it's... really, I can spend an hour talking about this... but we really, the entire team went through this effort, and I think it was a very powerful part of why the Anthropologie business has turned. The great thing is that with Jim being an important part of the team that went through that result, he can share with Ted from his perspective what worked and what didn't worked, and then Ted, Jim and the rest of their group will use what they see fit. I do think that there are some learnings and there are learnings from Free People as well which has different... a slightly different structure and process.

[Roxanne Meyer:]

Thank you very much.

[Glen T. Senk:]

Sure.

[Operator:]

Our next question is from Margaret Mager of Goldman Sachs. Your question please.

[Margaret Mager:]

Hi. I just wanted to ask about your comments on gross margin being below your plan and expectations. It was actually above what we were estimating, but can you talk about your view of IMU by brand as you look into 3Q and 4Q; and the thoughts around how gross margins might shake out over the balance of this year? I know you said one question, but Free People doing very well, could you describe the concepts on positioning merchandize-wise versus Urban Outfitters, because when I look at your catalogues they have a flavor that feels very similar, and I know it's women's only but any thoughts there would be helpful? Thanks.

[Glen T. Senk:]

Okay, Margaret, I will get back to you after the call on your second question, because I don't want to ignore but I want to kind of follow the rules.

[Margaret Mager:]

Okay.

[Glen T. Senk:]

With respect to the first question, the bulk of the problem in the second quarter relative to our internal plan and expectation related to markdowns; and related to markdowns primarily taken at the Urban Outfitters North American division. There was certainly opportunity in IMU, there is certainly opportunity in occupancy, but I think the IMU is not... it was a very... each business had specific issues, in Anthropologie it was air freight; at Free People it was a lower than expected average unit retail on close out sales; on... and in URBN it was largely mix. I don't... personally, I'm still involved in the... quite a bit in the buying, I don't see any cost pressures from our suppliers either domestically or internationally, and I don't see any hurdles towards achieving our long term IMU objectives over the next several years. In fact I think that... I feel very, very confident that we will be able achieve them. The markdowns

[Margaret Mager:]

Okay. Thank you.

[Glen T. Senk:]

Okay. On the occupancy, again, I want to call out Dave Ziel's tremendous work, and I think we will get back to historical lows with probably within 24 months, but John can give you historic lows on occupancy... at least on depreciation, and John can give you more detail on a one-and-one on that.

[Margaret Mager:]

Okay, thanks.

[Glen T. Senk:]

Thanks.

[Operator:]

Our next question is from Christine Chen of Needham. Your question please.

[Christine Chen:]

I would like to add my congratulations on the Anthro turn. Wanted to talk a little bit about the home business at both concepts; at URBN is it currently running positive, and at Anthro is the mix where you like to see it; I've noticed a lot of beauty products growing space in the stores? Thank you.

[Glen T. Senk:]

Christine, the home business in both brands is positive. And I am really pleased at Anthropologie with the assortment. I think it is working well, the customers love it, getting a lot of critical acclaim, and I think it is doing exactly what we wanted to do in the stores. Ted, do you want to add anything? Okay.

[Operator:]

Our next question is from Brian Tunick of JP Morgan. Your question please.

[Brian Tunick:]

Yes, thanks. My question, I guess, is; you talked a little about the SKU increase at the Urban Outfitters' division in the second half; maybe just talk about how you guys view the risk reward having that increase; I mean what kind of guardrails do you have in place that we don't have to worry that we are going to have massive merchandize margin erosion situation in that business? Thanks very much.

[Glen T. Senk:]

Yes, Brian, if anything, I think it's the opposite. I think it can only be margin positive. And many of you have heard how we mange our business. We have exceptional ability to bucket our inventory by attribute. So, at any one time I can tell you what we are selling, what we own, and what we have on order 5% of neckline, novelty, fabric type, print, color, price point, delivery; and we manage our inventory the same way the portfolio managers manage their stocks. We look at the rate of return on every part of our inventory, and we can get very... we can go up, scale up and scale down on our views. And it's a very complex way to manage what is, admittedly, a complex assortment. But I think what Ted is really talking about is expanding the style choices; and the analogy for our portfolio managers would be diversifying a portfolio. So, I think the way to think about it in portfolio terms is that the portfolio is too narrowly assorted right now. We have to diversify the portfolio. And every experience that we've had in the... since the day Dick opened the first store, tells us that this is the way we make money, this is the way we achieve our historic highs and profits. We are in a collective business within a collective assortment.

[Brian Tunick:]

So, you're hearing from your customers that the reason they're not buying right now is there is not enough choices in Urban Outfitters.

[Glen T. Senk:]

Brian, I'll call you, also after the call. I want to follow the second question enrolled.

[Brian Tunick:]

Hey. Thanks. Good luck.

[Glen T. Senk:]

All right. Thank you.

[Operator:]

Our next question is from Janet Kloppenburg of JJK Research. Your question please.

[Janet Kloppenburg:]

Good morning everyone. Congrats on a good quarter. My question is, given everything you've told us about air freight at Anthropologie and continued assortment issues at Urban Outfitters is should we be modeling an improvement in operating margin at the company in the third and fourth quarter? And in terms of modeling if John could just direct us on tax rate for the third and fourth quarter as well? Thank you.

[John E. Kyees:]

Yes. In terms of the operating margin going forward, obviously, no promises there but we didn't have the strongest operating margins in our history last year, so we do think there is opportunity. We think there is merchandize margin opportunity, and we think there is operating margin opportunity. In terms of tax rates we have been guiding you at 36, I would continue to model 36 even though this quarter came in a little bit better than that, and I would hope the next two quarters might as well, but I think modeling right now at 36 is the appropriate way to do it.

[Janet Kloppenburg:]

Thanks guys. Good luck.

[Glen T. Senk:]

Thank you.

[Operator:]

Our next question is from Liz Dunn of Thomas Weisel. Your question please.

[Liz Dunn:]

Hi. Let me add my congratulations on the turn at Anthropologie. I guess, we've heard a lot of different numbers, John, now you said 20% operating margin in the next several years, 6 to 15 months to get to the historic low markdown at URBN. I think I've heard 6 to 9 months before, URBN comping consistently positively rate, but then it also sounds like there is some ability to turn the business a little bit quicker because you can chase what categories you feel you're missing. So, I guess what I'm trying to get at is just some sense of how quickly URBN can turn and quickly we can get back to a 20% operating margin?

[Glen T. Senk:]

I mean, Liz, without... outstanding forecast because I really don't feel this way. If I had a crystal ball I probably wouldn't be sitting here, and that's the issue. I mean... when we talked about Anthropologie a year ago, when as it kind of hit its meter entering the second quarter, I think I felt fairly confident about our ability to turn the business within 6 to 9 months and that happened. I think that we all... I think we are very confident as to what we need to do at URBN. I think we have a newer staff at URBN. We had a pretty mature and tenured staff at Anthropologie when we went through this... the speed bump there. And I just don't... I just don't want to commit, I mean, I think that there are things that we can do in the short-term; and I know Ted feels wholeheartedly about this, that we believe we will impact... positively impact the business. But it's just too soon for us to tell you when there is going to be, what I would call a true turnaround which to me means sustainable, predictable, and historically profitable, at historic profit rates. And I think we... I have been saying 6 to 9 months, I think that's probably around the right timeframe, but I don't want to make that promise at this point. Ted, you want to add anything.

[Tedford G. Marlow:]

Like it's all said.

[Glen T. Senk:]

Okay. I am sorry, I can't be more exact, but most important I have to tell you the truth.

[Liz Dunn:]

Okay, and 20% operating margin is multi year?

[Glen T. Senk:]

Yes, 20% operating margin... I mean, that's in our objective for years, and since the day that I joined the company... and I was a lot younger and lot greener; you know I stood next to Dick since, literally, since probably the first week I joined the company. Dick has said, since the day we went public, sales of 20% or higher and earnings in excess of sales on an annual basis. We almost hit 20% a couple of years ago, just shy of it. And I think all of us sitting around this table, don't see any reason why we can't achieve that and hopefully exceed that in the future. And again, I can't give you a timeframe, a lot of it has to do with the turnaround of Urban Outfitters but all of the initiatives that we've been speaking about, for everything conveys tremendous success with reducing construction cost to Bob Ross, our Head of Productions to the tremendous improvement you've made in sourcing thus far, follow the improvement, we expect to make over the next several years. Calvin Hollinger and his team are giving the merchants, the stores folks, tremendous tools to better manage the inventory, to reduce the risk, to cut the lead times. I mean, every part of our business, all of the shared service areas, are focused on improving productivity efficiently and ultimately margin and return on investment. We are a smart group, and I feel very confident that we'll accomplish our objective.

[Liz Dunn:]

Okay. Great. Thank you.

[Operator:]

Our next question is from Lyn Walther of Wachovia. Your question please.

[Lyn Walther:]

Thanks. A question for you guys on URBN. In the past you talked about the merchandize residing better on the Coast than in the middle of the country; is that still the case and what's the new plan in allocation systems, do you have the ability to merchandize these stores differently? Thanks.

[Tedford G. Marlow:]

Yes, Lyn, this is Ted. And in regard to second quarter performance, our business on the East Coast, DC North was the strongest area for the quarter; the Southeast also treat us pretty well; Midwest improved in the second quarter as we had on our conference call, some conversation about more depth in some of our mainstream product, and I think that did help comp performance in the Midwest in the quarter. Our performance on the West Coast... in the North West was pretty good, Southern California was softer for us then had planned. As well the hot climbs of Arizona were less than planned. We do have a bit of comp bogey in Vegas, in that we opened the second store in the market. We knew that it would cannibalize the existing business there. So, it's really that comp does go into talking about business in the West. Our main concern right now is just getting the strength of business that we need out of southern California. And it's not to say that overall Southern California is weak for us. We do have stores that are performing very well for us in Southern California, but what we're used to in Southern California is all of our stores performing very well for us.

[Glen T. Senk:]

And Lyn we will get back to you after the call on the assortment planning question.

[Lyn Walther:]

Okay. Thanks. Good luck.

[Glen T. Senk:]

Sure.

[Operator:]

Our next question is from Holly Guthrie of Janney Montgomery Scott. Your question.

[Holly Guthrie:]

Thank you. I'm just wondering if you could give me some sort of estimate on when you feel like your style count will be at the level that you are looking at; I don't know what mix you are looking at to move away from the current look that you are looking for, but if you have an idea of when that might happen?

[Tedford G. Marlow:]

Sure, Holly, it's Ted again. We have... in regard to this analysis that's going on, we've also put some new tools in the business in regard to managing the buy, giving us more visibility on style count and SKUs to backup style; that is in place and women's apparel and women's accessory business, and it is a tool that we are using in the buys that we're placing for the balance of the year. We still have the ability, obviously, to effect what is going on in fourth quarter. And the flows of product that we've got coming in to the month of October, November, and December; we will be managing accordingly.

[Holly Guthrie:]

Thank you.

[Operator:]

Our next question is from Lauren Levitan with Cowen and Company. Your question please.

[Lauren Levitan:]

Thanks. Good morning everyone. Glen, I was hoping you could give us a little bit more thought on the 20% operating margin target; I fully understand that that's marked your target, and I understand some of drivers behind it. But should we assume there are any meaningful different targets embedded for Urban Outfitters versus Anthropologie; is there are reason to believe why one of those should, assuming they are both trending well on comp, that either one of those should have substantially higher or lower than that target margin; just looking to get some sense of mix of business in terms of private label versus branded and then mix across the different categories and what implications that might have for the contribution to the 20% target? Thanks very much.

[Glen T. Senk:]

Lauren, we've consistently said that we believe that Anthropologie can be slightly more profitable than Urban Outfitters, largely based on the significantly higher average unit retails at Anthropologie. It depends upon the years, and by the way when we say slightly more profitable, they're, both brands are very profitable and have the potential to be very profitable. So, I'm talking about a relatively small delta. Historically there have been years when URBN has been more profitable than Anthropologie, and there have been years when Anthropologie has been more profitable than URBN. Certainly for the first half of this year Anthropologie leads the way. But in terms of your modeling efforts, I think that both of the brands in the long-term should be accretive to our 20% objective. And we're always going to make investments in our business that will take away from that what Anthropologie and URBN do, which of course, we believe in the long-term will also likely be accretive. That answers your question?

[Lauren Levitan:]

It does. Thank you and good luck.

[Glen T. Senk:]

Thanks.

[Operator:]

Our next question is from Liz Pierce of Roth Capital Partners. Your question.

[Elizabeth Pierce:]

Good morning. Congratulations Glen and Meg. Good job. And, Glen, can you give us an update on your replacement and as well as who is taking over for Jim; if you mention that, I didn't catch it. Thank you.

[Glen T. Senk:]

Yes. Liz. We had a terrific response to the search for the Anthropologie President, Bill Cody and the internal Talent; these teams have just done a wonderful job. I think, I personally probably met with a least 35 people in the last several months, and we had several good candidates. And we are towards the tail-end of the process, and I'm hopeful that we can come to resolution on this in the relatively near future. The same is true with Jim's replacement; we had some internal candidates we have some external candidates. We are earlier in the stage on that, but I would think that we should be able to get that position filled within two to three months thanks to Wendy and Jim's stewardship we have a lot of stability underneath Jim, and I really don't have any concerns in terms of our ability to run the business in the short-term without Jim there.

[Elizabeth Pierce:]

Okay. Good luck you guys. Thank you.

[Glen T. Senk:]

Thank you.

[Operator:]

Our next question is from Margaret Whitfield of Stern Agee. Your question please.

[Margaret Whitfield:]

Going back to your gross margins, and recognizing that there were issues in each of the three brands. I wondered if we can get some point of differentiation between the gross margins in URBN, Anthro, and Free People; with the idea, I guess, at Free People and Anthro, what pressures that will be short lived in nature?

[Glen T. Senk:]

Yes, Margaret, we... this is Glen and I'll ask John to elaborate. But historically most of you probably know we never talk about margin performances within the brands. I mean, what we did say in the call and what we certainly said is that the bulk of the issue relative... relative to the short fall against plans came from markdown that were taken at the Urban Outfitters North American retail brand. John, would you like to elaborate?

[John E. Kyees:]

I think the key, Margaret, is that Anthro has recovered its margins performance, not to its historic highs but certainly to pretty... to getting back to that level and URBN is the one that's running below, and soon as they get close to that historic high, we see dramatic improvement in margin coming.

[Margaret Whitfield:]

Would you say the GAAP in Q2 would be the same as it's ever been between the two brands?

[John E. Kyees:]

No, I wouldn't necessarily say that.

[Margaret Whitfield:]

Okay. Thanks again.

[Glen T. Senk:]

Sure.

[Operator:]

Our next question is from R.J. Hottovy of Next Generation. Your question please.

[R.J. Hottovy:]

Good morning everyone. Just a quick question on the comment you made about normalizing the store opening schedule in future years. Just it looks like a lot of the store openings for this year kind of back loaded, and just wanted to see if there was anything behind that, if real estate developments are taking longer to get in place or just a little bit more color behind that.

[Glen T. Senk:]

No, again, that was a big, we are not happy about it. It puts an undue level of stress, particularly on the store operations team, individual team. I mean, it was a big focus with the real estate group in the middle and end of the last year. And I expect we will have dramatic improvements going into next year. We've invested into demographic programs, mapping programs; we've changed the method by which we review potential sites; we've changed our hurdles in terms of how many sites we feel we need to have in order to get down to our target rate; and we are in excellent shape for our calendar 2008. But you are absolutely right it's too back-end weighted this year and we are going to work hard to not repeat that performance.

[R.J. Hottovy:]

Okay. Thank you. And good luck, going into the third quarter.

[Glen T. Senk:]

Thank you.

[Operator:]

Our next question is from Samantha Panella of Raymond James. Your question please.

[Samantha Panella:]

Hey, thank you. I notice that you are opening the Free People store in Manhattan that's going to be much larger side store, I am just wondering how you feel about the size of the average; next if you are planning on the new stores being a larger box, given this success? Thank you.

[Glen T. Senk:]

I'll ask Meg to answer that question.

[Meg Hayne:]

Hi, this is Meg. We like to vary the store sizes. New York will probably be one of the largest stores that we open. We go anywhere from 800 square feet selling to 2,000 square feet selling. We feel that the smaller spaces are very efficient, and we like the boutique feel of them.

[Samantha Panella:]

Okay. Thank you.

[Operator:]

Our next question is from Barbara Wyckoff from Buckingham Research. Your question please.

[Barbara Wyckoff:]

Ted, can you talk about the levels of markdown, selling versus last year and was there any impact over the later back-to-school in Florida and Texas in Urban Outfitters?

[Tedford G. Marlow:]

Sure Barbara. Markdown selling for the season and the quarter has... I mean, we managed, to Glen's point earlier, our markdown for selling on a weeks of supply basis, just as we do our entire inventory. But in regard to contribution to comp, obviously, our markdowns were not where we wanted them as we came through this spring, but they were lower than they were last year. And as a result our markdown on a comp basis, our markdown sales were down considerably to last year just based on the content of this year to last year in markdown. In regard to early back-to-school selling, the main thing is... that's taking place really on the Texas and Florida market, really, is in Texas a shift on tax free shopping, which is occurred here in first... the end of July and the first part of August, but that's the main piece of the equation that's involved in those markets at this point.

[Barbara Wyckoff:]

Okay. Thanks.

[Operator:]

Our next question is Robin Murchison of SunTrust. Your question please.

[Robin Murchison:]

Thank you my questions has been asked and answered.

[Operator:]

Our next question is from Jeff Black of Lehman Brothers. Your question please.

[Unidentified Analyst:]

Hi, thanks, this Josh Goldman on for Jeff. I was just hoping you could discuss a little bit how much CapEx and incremental spending we could expect to see next year from initiatives you spoke to and including the new Terrain concept? And if you could quantify different inning try, can you quantify [ph] that? Thanks.

[John E. Kyees:]

Well CapEx this year, we've said in our K was going to be a $100 million to $120 million; next year that number probably will be relatively consistent to that maybe slightly higher because of Concept IV and additional new stores. So, we still feel comfortable that we will have pretty nice free cash flow going forward for the next several years and our CapEx will in no way inhibit that cash growth.

[Operator:]

Our next question is from Jennifer Black of Jennifer Black & Associates. Your question please.

[Jennifer Black:]

Good morning and congratulations. I wondered if you could speak to your denim assortment. I noticed that they are more widely jeans at Anthropology, and more of an emphasis on skinny at Urban; and if you could just talk about skinny versus wide and high waist versus low waist?

[Glen T. Senk:]

Jennifer, as you know we don't speak to fashion on the calls, but I think that what you are talking about is exactly the point that Ted and I were trying to make that in a store the size of Anthropologie or URBN, they should have all of the above, and obviously the inventory investment should relate to the selling, but there's absolutely customer for skinny, there's absolutely a customer for high waist fit and there's absolutely a customer for wide leg.

[Jennifer Black:]

Okay. Thank you. Good luck.

[Glen T. Senk:]

Thank you.

[Operator:]

Our next question is from Crystal Kallik of D.A. Davidson. Your question please.

[Crystal Kallik:]

Good morning. I was hoping, if you could talk a little bit and give us some more color on the marketing plans, circulation etcetera, for all three different brands, going into the second half?

[Glen T. Senk:]

I'll ask John to do that.

[John E. Kyees:]

Our projected catalogues for the third and fourth quarters

[Crystal Kallik:]

Thank you.

[John E. Kyees:]

Sure.

[Operator:]

[Operator Instructions]. Our next question is from Dana Telsey of Telsey Advisory Group. Your question please.

[Dana Telsey:]

Good morning everyone. Can you talk a little bit about the response to the catalogue at Urban Outfitters given the strength you've seen on the web from URBN, what do you think the difference is between the two, and also a little bit more color on the real estate strategy for each of the different businesses

[Glen T. Senk:]

Dana, I'll ask Ted to address the question regarding URBN catalogue and I'll follow-up with a phone call to you on the other question. Ted, go ahead.

[Tedford G. Marlow:]

Sure Dana. In regard to the... I guess, just for... to fragment, the first half on flat circulation, our catalogue business was up very high double-digit comp positive. As a result that John called out a little earlier, we've put a couple of additional books into the... to the back half of the year. We are trying a couple of new format and those will be coming out as we go through the end of August and into September. One of the things that we spoke about earlier in the call was the breadth of assortment. We've taken breadth of assortment up pretty dramatically in our web business in response to the success and strength of business in direct. And as well is that's providing some clues in regard to opportunity in retail. But we are feeling very bullish about our opportunities in the direct side, and as a result we are taking our circ up as we go into the back half of the year.

[Dana Telsey:]

Thank you.

[Operator:]

At this time, I'm showing no further questions.

[Glen T. Senk:]

Thank you everyone.

[Operator:]

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference. This concludes the program. You may now disconnect. Good day.